Bitcoin - Struggling to Remain Bullish
Bitcoin' is struggling to rally here, and though we expect this to be part of a bullish reversal, the longer it lingers without a solid swing to the upside, the potential for pushing lower increases. This may seem contrary to what I said back in October when Bitcoin' was trading at 6k, but it is about context concerning time and position. Coming off a low in an initial bounce is quite different than building a support base at 6k over months.
Currently Bitcoin' is struggling to remain above the trend line established off the higher low. It broke the trend once, providing a long signal yet it is really struggling to make a move higher. If Bitcoin' can not remain above the established trend, we may see a push back towards the low to mid 3k area. This is a tough area for Bitcoin and what makes it tougher is the sentiment on Trading View and elsewhere is bullish.
Reacting to the market because a candle is not working out like it is supposed to, often has a trader exiting before the rally. We need to still give it some time here, but if it fails to take out the previous high, we are likely to see a pullback. This could simply be consolidation before a move higher, but again it is in a tricky area, and the longer it lingers the more likely it fails to rally and pulls back.
During initial bullish swings off lows, it is common to get the "I missed out" affect of the market. Those that missed the initial pullback jump in on the initial pullback off the bullish leg, and these are the first to have buyers remorse. They close out positions which creates a selloff and all the fair weather Bulls on TV' jump the fence into bear camp, as shorts pile in pushing us lower. Not that this has to happen but is one scenario that happens quite often.
In short this is a tough position to look to add positions as we still really only have a little structure to go by. Personally I am giving the market some time to either prove it is in bullish rally mode by breaking through 4500 or a pullback and reversal off a higher low, double bottom, or double bottom variation. Until then we will just wait for the market to do it's thing and not get caught up in the emotions of interim price noise.
Currently Bitcoin' is struggling to remain above the trend line established off the higher low. It broke the trend once, providing a long signal yet it is really struggling to make a move higher. If Bitcoin' can not remain above the established trend, we may see a push back towards the low to mid 3k area. This is a tough area for Bitcoin and what makes it tougher is the sentiment on Trading View and elsewhere is bullish.
Reacting to the market because a candle is not working out like it is supposed to, often has a trader exiting before the rally. We need to still give it some time here, but if it fails to take out the previous high, we are likely to see a pullback. This could simply be consolidation before a move higher, but again it is in a tricky area, and the longer it lingers the more likely it fails to rally and pulls back.
During initial bullish swings off lows, it is common to get the "I missed out" affect of the market. Those that missed the initial pullback jump in on the initial pullback off the bullish leg, and these are the first to have buyers remorse. They close out positions which creates a selloff and all the fair weather Bulls on TV' jump the fence into bear camp, as shorts pile in pushing us lower. Not that this has to happen but is one scenario that happens quite often.
In short this is a tough position to look to add positions as we still really only have a little structure to go by. Personally I am giving the market some time to either prove it is in bullish rally mode by breaking through 4500 or a pullback and reversal off a higher low, double bottom, or double bottom variation. Until then we will just wait for the market to do it's thing and not get caught up in the emotions of interim price noise.
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