This chart on the 1W time-frame is a complete mapping of the rest of Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycle! The basis of it is a Fibonacci Channel Up (May 2017 to October 2025) whose price symmetry is identical with the one that run from June 2013 to November 2021.
As you can see the similarities within the two are more than obvious, even on a 1W RSI basis. The current Channel Up has already started its second Cycle and through a certain set of technical formations and events we project its pathing and cyclical Top.
** The Fibonacci Channels similarities **
Let's start by comparing the common characteristics between the two Channels. Both start with a 1st Rally (green arc) that makes a 1st High on Fibonacci 1.0. The Bear Cycle starts and bottoms when the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) makes a Bearish Cross under the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) and the 1W RSI hits the 30.00 oversold zone (green circle). Then the first mini rally of the new Bull Cycle starts but loses steam as the 1W RSI breaks above the 70.00 overbought zone (blue circle). The price eases and after a 1W MA50/100 Bullish Cross, the Halving event comes to kick-start the 2nd Rally. That rally peaks a little under Fib 1.0. Same picture after that as the new Bear Cycle bottoms on an oversold 1W RSI and a 1W MA50/100 Bearish Cross. On the previous Channel Up, the 3rd Rally also started after the Halving event (3rd) and topped within the 0.618 and 0.5 Fibonacci range.
** Where are we now? **
This brings us back to today and the new Channel Up. As mentioned it has started the new Bull Cycle and is on the mini rally, with the 1W RSI getting rejected exactly on the 70.00 overbought Resistance. This indicates that even if we get a Higher High short-term above the 1W MA100, we should see the price getting neutralized until the new 1W MA50/100 Bullish Cross and Halving 4 (expected in April 2024) that will give the signal for the start of the Channel's 3rd Rally.
** What will the next High be? **
It is important to point out now that all Rallies has started below the 0.236 Fibonacci level. It is equally important to mention that the time range between Cycle Highs have been 210 weeks (1470 days) and 204 weeks (1428 days). If the current date range is also the 204 minimum, then we should be expecting the next High to be around October 13 2025. And if it is again within the 0.618 and 0.5 Fibonacci range, then it should be around $150000!
Do you agree with that projection or you have a lower/ higher target? Is this Fibonacci Channel approach the way to go for the rest of the current Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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