BTCUSD: Update, weekly trend signal active
Updated
Bitcoin has confirmed a weekly chart uptrend signal here. Me and my clients are long with a pretty low cost basis, sub 6k, recently reentered longs at 7830.
Demand seems to be surpassing supply here, which is a bit surprising considering the efforts I feared large miners might be doing towards gaining market share by eliminating weaker miners running older hardware from the market. They either aren't going for it, or demand is far more than they can cope with.
This article shed some light in mining dynamics at play but I expanded on the analysis for my own study of fundamentals: blockwaresolutions.com/research-and-publications/2020-halving-analysis
After the halving break even levels for miners will double, making it easier to wipe out S9 miners, if below the majority of their break even levels for long enough after the halving takes place.
See the levels of break even for S9 miners below, together with the % of the network they represent (these are tiered per energy cost levels):
5136 4.5%
7704 5.63%
10272 9.75%
12840 7.5%
14124 6%
15408 3%
16692 1.25%
19262 1%
With my chart target between 11816 and 13600, we would see a hash rate reduction between 18.75% and 11.25% by the end of June.
That means we can expect supply to wane after those dates, which is the time needed to finally get rid of these inefficient miners if we rally.
Demand certainly is strong otherwise larger miners would have preferred to keep price below 7700 until those dates, getting a FAR larger hash rate reduction and thus market share gain for themselves.
From this point, if we hit those targets, with a reduction in inflation and market selling pressure from close to bankruptcy miners, price can break free and rally long term again. I estimate that we may trigger a long term signal by the end of June if all goes well, which would imply a rally as I had originally envisioned, with prices heading towards 42k to 280k over time, although at a much slower pace. Let's go step by step. There is also a chance CME short sellers return with a vengeance and stop the advance near 9600 together with miners selling futures and mined coins and reserve btc to kill price once again.
We will have to wait and see...I will, as usual, try to dodge any possible drop, and manage to make some huge gains in this market over time.
As a sidenote, see related ideas for the short signal I had posted, the target was the bottom in fact. Minimum upside implications is retesting 9950 as per that chart.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Demand seems to be surpassing supply here, which is a bit surprising considering the efforts I feared large miners might be doing towards gaining market share by eliminating weaker miners running older hardware from the market. They either aren't going for it, or demand is far more than they can cope with.
This article shed some light in mining dynamics at play but I expanded on the analysis for my own study of fundamentals: blockwaresolutions.com/research-and-publications/2020-halving-analysis
After the halving break even levels for miners will double, making it easier to wipe out S9 miners, if below the majority of their break even levels for long enough after the halving takes place.
See the levels of break even for S9 miners below, together with the % of the network they represent (these are tiered per energy cost levels):
5136 4.5%
7704 5.63%
10272 9.75%
12840 7.5%
14124 6%
15408 3%
16692 1.25%
19262 1%
With my chart target between 11816 and 13600, we would see a hash rate reduction between 18.75% and 11.25% by the end of June.
That means we can expect supply to wane after those dates, which is the time needed to finally get rid of these inefficient miners if we rally.
Demand certainly is strong otherwise larger miners would have preferred to keep price below 7700 until those dates, getting a FAR larger hash rate reduction and thus market share gain for themselves.
From this point, if we hit those targets, with a reduction in inflation and market selling pressure from close to bankruptcy miners, price can break free and rally long term again. I estimate that we may trigger a long term signal by the end of June if all goes well, which would imply a rally as I had originally envisioned, with prices heading towards 42k to 280k over time, although at a much slower pace. Let's go step by step. There is also a chance CME short sellers return with a vengeance and stop the advance near 9600 together with miners selling futures and mined coins and reserve btc to kill price once again.
We will have to wait and see...I will, as usual, try to dodge any possible drop, and manage to make some huge gains in this market over time.
As a sidenote, see related ideas for the short signal I had posted, the target was the bottom in fact. Minimum upside implications is retesting 9950 as per that chart.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Note
Make or break zone nearby.
Trade active
Bot the dip a tad lower to add to our entries lower.
Note
Now likely sideways as 3D tf target was met and we saw rejection at resistance level above. Let's see if it holds up.
Note
People seeing a wedge should hope for price to be at 3850 by May 28th, if not that idea is flawed.
Note
coindesk.com/coinbase-gemini-first-crypto-exchange-customers-jpmorgan-bank-reportThis could be a big deal, once we get more momentum with regulations easing when it comes to dealing with crypto related payments within financial institutions.
Note
Note
New daily signal: Trade closed manually
I am hedged for upside here, while waiting in cash until the sideways pattern ends.
Trade closed manually
'There is also a chance CME short sellers return with a vengeance and stop the advance near 9600 together with miners selling futures and mined coins and reserve btc to kill price once again.'So far, miners and short sellers are still liquidating holdings here, keeping price upside constrained. It might drag until July.
Note
One week, until Sunday, to hit the target, else it signals a failure here, and more sideways to come.Trade active
Sideways until July, but we have good odds of going higher afterwards.Trade closed manually
Rather wait for now. I sold 9775, after having bought partially at 9762 here.Note
Looks like it might test support lower, since the weekly signal failed to hit the target at 11816 in time. Since then we saw weak price action and now a break down.I assume price will land near 8100 before turning up possibly.
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