### 🔎 **1. Sentiment & Behavioral Data**:
- **App Rank + Google Trends Overlay**:
Elevated app rank + Google Trends spikes historically mark **local tops or overheating**, often preceding significant cool-downs.
- Current period mirrors previous euphoric cycles.
- RSI (monthly) also elevated → supports reversion.
---
### 🧊 **2. Macro Liquidity Conditions**:
- **BTC vs Global Liquidity Index**:
- Historically tightly correlated.
- Current divergence: **BTC is at ATH territory**, while **Global Liquidity Index is still suppressed**.
- Suggests **unsustainable move**, and vulnerability if liquidity tightens.
---
### 🏦 **3. ETF Flow Structure**:
- **Monthly Flows:**
- Net positive ($780M), **but cooling**.
- Feb had negative net flows (~44B out), March stabilizing but still tepid inflows.
- Sign of **diminishing marginal demand** from institutional flows → could fail to support current prices if retail demand slows.
---
### 🔥 **4. Liquidation Heatmap (Hyperliquid)**:
- **Heavy liquidation clusters**:
- Between **$86K - $90K** → currently being tested.
- **Liquidity vacuum below ~$80K** with significant liquidation levels → ideal for a **"liquidity hunt" wick** if downside opens up.
- Reinforces potential **swift downside mechanics** via cascading leverage.
---
### 📈 **5. Technical Structure & Smart Money Concepts**:
#### BTCUSD (Weekly View):
- Price hitting **regression model’s upper red band** (mean reversion zone).
- Momentum indicators (MACD, ST Oscillator, Squeeze) all **bearish divergent**.
- Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) below ($66K–
52K) + large Weekly OBs → **magnet zones**.#### BTCUSDT.P (Perpetual Futures):
- RSI and volume profile show clear **bearish divergence**.
- Weekly CHoCH (Change of Character) + potential **lower high forming**.
- Price sitting in **high liquidity zone** with **weak support below**.
#### BRN/BTC Ratio:
- Shows **macro risk-off positioning** still in play (low oil/energy relative to BTC).
- Risk that this reverses → capital rotation *out of crypto* and into commodities.
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### ⚠️ **Conclusion: Near-Term Bearish Bias**
Your thesis is still anchored in the **broader structural bull market**, but the current **micro-structure is highly vulnerable** to a **mid-cycle correction**, driven by:
- Overheated retail metrics.
- Bearish divergence across momentum tools.
- Depleting ETF inflows.
- Liquidity + liquidation setups ideal for **fast downside moves**.
- Macro conditions (liquidity and cross-asset risk ratios) not supportive of continued vertical price expansion **without correction**.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.