Short

Clear view on BTC vol. SHORT

Updated

This is continuation of previous idea. This time I will try shorting.

We need to keep in mind that shorting is very dangerous. This kind of trading is based on luck, but We can protect minor losses

Why short? We will take closer look on whole marketplace. Capacity has expansed, most of altcoins have huge room for growth. BTC's drop could pour fresh water to our longs.
Let's begin

Entry: $ 10500-11000
Stop loss: $ 11500
Take profit: $ 3400-4200 (Check current update for fresh stop loss)

Why stop loss so tight? Breaking through bullflag will occur with trend reversal.

Note

1W chart with RSI combination

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4hr frame chart.
After zooming out I will stream this time frame.

Note

Stop loss under neckline.
This is time to prevent win trade.

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Stop loss above neckline *

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Post for education.
If You wonder what have just exactly happened, read this closely.
The best view on trend is done through long time frames. 1D candles are one of the best tools for technical analysis. This is why very popular pattern played out well. This was also my steering wheel while setting up short position. IMO this was one of the easiest to predict market moves, that might occur with major reversal. There was enough indicated slip down, such as resisting SMA 50 on 1D chart too.

Note

So what to expect on the coming days? Pullback always comes from natural market life,and it could take several days watching indecisive fluctuations. We are here for position trade, from now downtrend could last for weeks.
BTC's tempo is adagio, do not try playing faster.

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caution zone
back to 2hr time frame

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Besides, We could mix bullflag pattern with other indicators that work.
One of them could be EMA 26 on 2hr time frame. The price has respected this line twice, slowly getting close again.

Trade active

Steering with orders manually.
Only clear closing above EMA26 on 2hr time frame without touching the line will occur with closing position.

Trade active

BTC's nature is logic sometimes. If big pattern shows fakeout, smaller one inside will behave similarly. This could be found in failed double bottoms since $20'000 peak.
Thats why We kept steady. Thats why precision is combined with patience.
2hr frame chart

Note

still could be a fakeout, only breaking through great bullish flag will confirm reversal.Till now We are going sideways, note that I pointed situation like this at the beggining. 10k dollars ale psychological barrier that could resist harder than any indicator. Neckline from H&S is still in play, and 1D candles doesn't look like We are in uptrend ...
2hr time frame just for entertainment.

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Why this time stop loss is not so tight? If reversal comes, it usually does that through fast and volatile movements. This time we are steady and direction is predictable. Green candles are very weak. Overall view on 1D chart is protecting our statement.

Trade active

Take profit 5% on 0.5 fibo floor.

Note

30min time frame.
This is very short term view on price movement. We need to keep in mind, that the shorter time frame view, the less accurate our tools are. Thats why I'd like just to remind our current position at BTC. We remain in downtrend, still this is not time to close or open position. However. There appears opportunity for new short setup. If inverted H&S plays out, We could predict with high possibility that We will meet or even overtake blue minor support line shown below.

Trade active

Trying to fit into current situation. Tiny inverted H&S didn't play out because great one had entered earlier. Lets see if breaking the blue line is possible.

Note

Don't forget to setup stop loss. This time We will prevent neckline breakout.
Stop not higher than $9900

Note

Falling wedge appears, as I felt this. In comments below You can find this prediction. Now stop loss needs to be smart or manipulate with orders manually, because true breakthrough from this pattern could eat our whole profit ...
All for all We are fine in case of breakdown.

Trade closed: stop reached

Stop loss @9850 triggered. +7% trade.

pinfkloyd

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