🧩 Chart Overview
This chart captures a well-defined rectangle continuation pattern forming within a rising channel on the 1-hour timeframe. This setup is a classic combination of horizontal and diagonal price structure interaction, offering valuable insights into potential market behavior and trade opportunities.
🧱 Structure Breakdown
Rectangle Pattern: Price action was trapped in a sideways consolidation phase between the resistance zone (~104,800 - 105,400) and the support zone (~101,200 - 101,800).
This rectangle followed a strong bullish rally, which often implies a continuation pattern. However, the lack of follow-through from bulls near the resistance led to repeated failures to break out, suggesting weakening momentum.
Rising Channel: Within this rectangle, price respected a rising trendline support and resistance structure, forming a parallel ascending channel.
Bearish Breakout: The significant event occurred when BTC broke down below both the horizontal support of the rectangle and the lower boundary of the rising channel, triggering a structural shift from bullish to bearish.
🔁 Retesting Phase – What’s Happening Now
After the breakdown:
Price pulled back toward the prior support zone, which is now acting as resistance (a classic example of the support-turns-resistance principle).
This is commonly referred to as a retest, which validates the breakout and offers a lower-risk entry point for traders looking to short.
The retest area (around 101,500 - 102,000) is crucial. If price fails to reclaim this level and prints bearish confirmation (e.g., rejection wick, bearish engulfing candle), it increases the probability of downward continuation.
🎯 Trade Setup (Short Bias)
Entry Zone: 101,500 – 102,000 (on retest rejection confirmation)
Stop Loss: Above 103,000 (above prior highs and invalidation point)
Target 1 (TP1): 99,347 – key psychological and horizontal support level from prior structure
Target 2 (TP2): 97,277 – measured move of the rectangle height projected downward, aligning with previous demand area
This setup offers an attractive risk-to-reward ratio, assuming proper trade management and confirmation-based entry.
📊 Additional Technical Confluences
Bearish Momentum: The aggressive breakdown candle shows strong seller interest and increased volatility.
Volume: If confirmed with high selling volume during the breakdown and low buying volume during the retest, the move gains more credibility.
Trend Reversal Signals: The break of the channel and the rectangle support indicates potential trend reversal from short-term bullish to bearish.
RSI & Momentum Indicators (optional): Traders may use tools like RSI or MACD to confirm momentum shifts during retest.
📉 Psychological and Price-Level Significance
101,500 was a strong intraday support zone throughout the consolidation phase. Once broken, it flips polarity and acts as resistance.
The round-number level of 100,000 is always a psychological magnet for BTC. It often acts as a bounce or breakout zone, so traders should watch price behavior near this area closely.
Deeper demand may emerge around 97,000 – 96,500, which can serve as an extended target or reaccumulation zone depending on broader market conditions.
⚠️ Risk Management & Final Thoughts
This setup is high-probability only if the retest confirms rejection. Avoid early entries or assumptions before confirmation.
Always use proper stop-loss placement to avoid whipsaws or fake-outs.
Manage position sizing based on account size and risk tolerance.
News events or macro data can override technicals, so be aware of upcoming economic releases or sentiment shifts.
🧵 Conclusion
Bitcoin is showing clear signs of short-term weakness following the breakdown of a long-standing consolidation range within a rising channel. The ongoing retest provides an ideal area for short positioning, with clearly defined invalidation and profit targets.
✅ If bears defend the retest zone, expect downside continuation toward 99.3K and possibly 97.2K.
This chart captures a well-defined rectangle continuation pattern forming within a rising channel on the 1-hour timeframe. This setup is a classic combination of horizontal and diagonal price structure interaction, offering valuable insights into potential market behavior and trade opportunities.
🧱 Structure Breakdown
Rectangle Pattern: Price action was trapped in a sideways consolidation phase between the resistance zone (~104,800 - 105,400) and the support zone (~101,200 - 101,800).
This rectangle followed a strong bullish rally, which often implies a continuation pattern. However, the lack of follow-through from bulls near the resistance led to repeated failures to break out, suggesting weakening momentum.
Rising Channel: Within this rectangle, price respected a rising trendline support and resistance structure, forming a parallel ascending channel.
Bearish Breakout: The significant event occurred when BTC broke down below both the horizontal support of the rectangle and the lower boundary of the rising channel, triggering a structural shift from bullish to bearish.
🔁 Retesting Phase – What’s Happening Now
After the breakdown:
Price pulled back toward the prior support zone, which is now acting as resistance (a classic example of the support-turns-resistance principle).
This is commonly referred to as a retest, which validates the breakout and offers a lower-risk entry point for traders looking to short.
The retest area (around 101,500 - 102,000) is crucial. If price fails to reclaim this level and prints bearish confirmation (e.g., rejection wick, bearish engulfing candle), it increases the probability of downward continuation.
🎯 Trade Setup (Short Bias)
Entry Zone: 101,500 – 102,000 (on retest rejection confirmation)
Stop Loss: Above 103,000 (above prior highs and invalidation point)
Target 1 (TP1): 99,347 – key psychological and horizontal support level from prior structure
Target 2 (TP2): 97,277 – measured move of the rectangle height projected downward, aligning with previous demand area
This setup offers an attractive risk-to-reward ratio, assuming proper trade management and confirmation-based entry.
📊 Additional Technical Confluences
Bearish Momentum: The aggressive breakdown candle shows strong seller interest and increased volatility.
Volume: If confirmed with high selling volume during the breakdown and low buying volume during the retest, the move gains more credibility.
Trend Reversal Signals: The break of the channel and the rectangle support indicates potential trend reversal from short-term bullish to bearish.
RSI & Momentum Indicators (optional): Traders may use tools like RSI or MACD to confirm momentum shifts during retest.
📉 Psychological and Price-Level Significance
101,500 was a strong intraday support zone throughout the consolidation phase. Once broken, it flips polarity and acts as resistance.
The round-number level of 100,000 is always a psychological magnet for BTC. It often acts as a bounce or breakout zone, so traders should watch price behavior near this area closely.
Deeper demand may emerge around 97,000 – 96,500, which can serve as an extended target or reaccumulation zone depending on broader market conditions.
⚠️ Risk Management & Final Thoughts
This setup is high-probability only if the retest confirms rejection. Avoid early entries or assumptions before confirmation.
Always use proper stop-loss placement to avoid whipsaws or fake-outs.
Manage position sizing based on account size and risk tolerance.
News events or macro data can override technicals, so be aware of upcoming economic releases or sentiment shifts.
🧵 Conclusion
Bitcoin is showing clear signs of short-term weakness following the breakdown of a long-standing consolidation range within a rising channel. The ongoing retest provides an ideal area for short positioning, with clearly defined invalidation and profit targets.
✅ If bears defend the retest zone, expect downside continuation toward 99.3K and possibly 97.2K.
For Daily Trade Setups and Forecast: 📈 t.me/xauusdoptimizer
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
For Daily Trade Setups and Forecast: 📈 t.me/xauusdoptimizer
Premium Signals Fr33: 💯 t.me/xauusdoptimizer
🥰🥳🤩
Premium Signals Fr33: 💯 t.me/xauusdoptimizer
🥰🥳🤩
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.