Let's face it, nobody wants to hold Bitcoin
Updated
It isn't profitable enough.
Bitcoin is the sun of the crypto solar system. When it shines, the rest grows, often much more rapidly. When it fades, the rest drops, often much more dramatically. Large numbers of people wish the crypto world depended less on the value of this old grandfather, but they steer their own trading decisions on its value. Because they know everyone else does. Many wish that Ethereum or another coin would gain more seniority and could stabilize the system but such a movement would require large volume and confidence and people exiting into ETH when BTC drops. But nobody does. No, our baseline confidence is in the Almighty US Dollar which is the galactic core to BTC's sun.
Once bitcoin rises, other coins rise faster. So traders sell their bitcoin in order to ride those other coins to greater profits. With the result that Bitcoin does not complete bullish elliott waves beyond those on the minutes charts and depresses the coins that trade vs bitcoin or those that depend for their own confidence on bitcoin. Bots that pick up on that pattern reinforce that trend and soon one may as well trade other coins solely while analyzing BTC.
There's something to be said for BTC to fail and for cryptocurrencies to have to hold value on their own technical and business merit. There's freedom in a moment when the holders of one coin refuse to sell it because they have confidence in a coin's fundamentals rather than lack of confidence in bitcoin.
As for the TA:
Add a few lines to a chart and suddenly it seems like there's order and predictability. But the future isn't like that. It's not going to be predicted. But it can follow patterns and this is a possible pattern that you need to keep in mind. This scenario would see a recovery to close to US
14K, then a drop to a longer term support line perhaps somewhere around US$8300, at which point the market will have to decide what's next.
If you look at BTCUSD's weekly candle chart in a logarithmic scale, things look extremely bullish. Then the current correction, which hasn't yet taken a month, looks like a normal and typical retraction. It would be relatively mild for a bullish elliott wave pattern that started in march 2017 to end in a mere month. Still the depth of the retracement has been profound, especially for people jumping in without guidance only to see the value of their investments drop by tens of percents in mere hours or days.
Perhaps by the time BTC is done retracing, the crypto world may have a new hopefully more diverse focus. If you monitor the ETHBTC chart over the last few weeks, you'll see an interesting trend that may have consequences for what will happen this year.
Bitcoin is the sun of the crypto solar system. When it shines, the rest grows, often much more rapidly. When it fades, the rest drops, often much more dramatically. Large numbers of people wish the crypto world depended less on the value of this old grandfather, but they steer their own trading decisions on its value. Because they know everyone else does. Many wish that Ethereum or another coin would gain more seniority and could stabilize the system but such a movement would require large volume and confidence and people exiting into ETH when BTC drops. But nobody does. No, our baseline confidence is in the Almighty US Dollar which is the galactic core to BTC's sun.
Once bitcoin rises, other coins rise faster. So traders sell their bitcoin in order to ride those other coins to greater profits. With the result that Bitcoin does not complete bullish elliott waves beyond those on the minutes charts and depresses the coins that trade vs bitcoin or those that depend for their own confidence on bitcoin. Bots that pick up on that pattern reinforce that trend and soon one may as well trade other coins solely while analyzing BTC.
There's something to be said for BTC to fail and for cryptocurrencies to have to hold value on their own technical and business merit. There's freedom in a moment when the holders of one coin refuse to sell it because they have confidence in a coin's fundamentals rather than lack of confidence in bitcoin.
As for the TA:
Add a few lines to a chart and suddenly it seems like there's order and predictability. But the future isn't like that. It's not going to be predicted. But it can follow patterns and this is a possible pattern that you need to keep in mind. This scenario would see a recovery to close to US
14K, then a drop to a longer term support line perhaps somewhere around US$8300, at which point the market will have to decide what's next.If you look at BTCUSD's weekly candle chart in a logarithmic scale, things look extremely bullish. Then the current correction, which hasn't yet taken a month, looks like a normal and typical retraction. It would be relatively mild for a bullish elliott wave pattern that started in march 2017 to end in a mere month. Still the depth of the retracement has been profound, especially for people jumping in without guidance only to see the value of their investments drop by tens of percents in mere hours or days.
Perhaps by the time BTC is done retracing, the crypto world may have a new hopefully more diverse focus. If you monitor the ETHBTC chart over the last few weeks, you'll see an interesting trend that may have consequences for what will happen this year.
Note
That's the weekly chart of ETHBTC, interesting isn't it?
Note
Additionally, check out the data from coinmarketcap.com/charts/Set the 3rd graph, Percentage of Total Market Capitalization (Dominance) to 3 months. BTC accounts for a third of volume. Mind that Cardano now is far bigger than Litecoin and accounts for the bulk of "other", being the 5th largest by cap.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.