Looking at historical data, we’re at a similar point as in 2021 — diverging RSI, declining volume, and signs of exhaustion. The key difference now is the level of institutional involvement: hedge funds are heavily in, MicroStrategy keeps buying, and even nation-states have exposure.
Despite the bullish narrative, I believe we’re heading down.
Price action isn’t convincing — we're still trading below the January monthly candle close, volume is drying up, and RSI continues to diverge. Each 5–10% pump is followed by a sharp spike in open interest (OI), then a brutal liquidation cascade wiping out $500M–$1B. This is starting to look like a leveraged casino, not a healthy uptrend.
That said, I wouldn’t rule out a final wick toward $120K to trap late longs and suck in liquidity before the real move down.
I called the top after the January rally — they called me a madman. Still, I was right.
Mastery tends to be a funny thing, seems like on a long enough timeframe you cant lose.
Stay safe everyone.
Despite the bullish narrative, I believe we’re heading down.
Price action isn’t convincing — we're still trading below the January monthly candle close, volume is drying up, and RSI continues to diverge. Each 5–10% pump is followed by a sharp spike in open interest (OI), then a brutal liquidation cascade wiping out $500M–$1B. This is starting to look like a leveraged casino, not a healthy uptrend.
That said, I wouldn’t rule out a final wick toward $120K to trap late longs and suck in liquidity before the real move down.
I called the top after the January rally — they called me a madman. Still, I was right.
Mastery tends to be a funny thing, seems like on a long enough timeframe you cant lose.
Stay safe everyone.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.