We have reached the old ATH too early in the cycle and have been stuck in a consolidation for almost 6 months since then. This can end with a crash now. A final shakeout before the next wave up.
The situation is similar to 2019 - early 2020. Too high too early, then a long boring consolidation period, and finally a crash (triggered by COVID). The difference is that it happened in an earlier phase of the cycle.
October is statistically a bullish or neutral month in a bull run, so it's likely to happen either in September or November.
My target is 40K but a wick can be expected to reach as low as the 30K area. It's likely that we'll get a fast recovery so it's important to have a plan and act decisively.
The situation is similar to 2019 - early 2020. Too high too early, then a long boring consolidation period, and finally a crash (triggered by COVID). The difference is that it happened in an earlier phase of the cycle.
October is statistically a bullish or neutral month in a bull run, so it's likely to happen either in September or November.
My target is 40K but a wick can be expected to reach as low as the 30K area. It's likely that we'll get a fast recovery so it's important to have a plan and act decisively.
Note
Going to close my shorts in 46-50K area if we get there this month.Note
Why I think it's not likely to crash to significantly lower prices anymore:- Wave 4 corrections tend to retrace no more than 38-50%.
- The blue trend line gives support in the same area. This is a strong macro trend line going back to 2011.
- 0.786 retracement from the bottom is at 50K. In past cycles, Bitcoin has always held this level as support after breaking it as resistance.
Note
I noticed BTC likes to do this pattern, nosediving and then quickly recovering at the end of corrections. This is the most bearish scenario I expect at the moment, this means that I consider the crash that I showed in the first chart of this post a low probability scenario now.Also whether something like this happens or not, I don't really care since I'm long on some bullish altcoins while simultaneously having a short position on the whole market in the form of COIN put options for protection.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.