Long

Local growth or long-term decrease.

Updated

My medium-term plan, after May’s 'high' at 9990, was based on levels at 6400, 6800–6900, as I expected that these targets should be reached before a repeated local growth begins. On the other hand, my model did not expect such a rapid fall below 6800, as it was built on a possible rebound upward from 6900 to 8200–8500. I wrote about this consistently in my analyzes in May and June, meeting many “opponents” with long positions.

The last proposed short swing trade reached its target. Because I was expecting a rebound from 6900 – so I opened long (for which I recommended to set SL below daily L/BB), but it failed.
Let us analyze further possible movements:

1) On the basis of TIs, we can check the following:
At the 4H TF, we have a number of mixed projections: CCI=-145 (positive trend), ROC=-12 (neutral trend), MACD=-210 (MACD < signal line), DMI=40 (+DI < -DI, positive projection), %R=-89. At the 5H TF, there are no significant differences from the 4H TF, except ROC=-12 (negative trend).
At the daily TF, we also have a number of mixed projections: CCI=-270 (negative trend), ROC=-15 (positive trend), MACD=-290 (MACD < signal line), DMI=34 (+DI < -DI), %R=-90.

In general, TIs indicate a continuation of the fall to ~ 6400–6500, with a subsequent upward turn.

2) Based on SMA/EMA, we can check the following:
At the 4H/5H and daily TF: SMA/EMA with short periods are below SMA/EMA with long periods, with negative projections.

In general, MAs indicates the continuation of the fall, also to ~ 6400–6500, and also with possible subsequent upward turn.

Finally, bitcoin is in the range from which it can make a sharp jump to 4H/5H SMA/EMA50, 100 ~ 7400–7600, with maximum targets within this cycle at daily SMA/EMA50, 100 ~ 7900–8400.
Given such potential growth, I will be building up long positions, with a preliminary SL at 6300 (with a possible movement of SL to 5950).

Take care of your BTC and USD!

Note

There are no significant changes from the past analysis. The projected level of ~ 6600 has so far hold downward pressure, and now bitcoin is making attempts to move upwards. Although the risk of short-term fall to ~ 6000 or ~ 6400 still remains.
Given the potential growth above 7400, and also on the basis of positive TIs projections, I opened long positions, with a preliminary SL 6300 (with a possible move of SL to 5950), warning: high RR.

Let us analyze further possible movements:

1) On the basis of TIs, we can check the following:

At the 4H TF we have a number of positive projections: CCI=-49 (positive trend), ROC=-10 (positive trend), MACD=-210 (MACD > signal line), DMI=46 (+DI seeks up to -DI ), %R=-75.
At the 5H TF, there are no significant differences from the 4H TF.
At the daily TF we have a number of mixed projections: CCI=-190 (positive trend), ROC=-8 (positive trend), MACD=-300 (MACD < signal line, DMI=36 (+DI < -DI), %R=-90.

In general, TIs indicate a possible increase to 4H/5H M/BB ~ 7100-7200.

2) On the basis of MAs, we can check the following:
At 4H/5H and daily TF: SMA/EMA with short periods below SMA/EMA with long periods.

In general, MAs indicate the continuation of the fall to ~ 6400-6500.

Finally, bitcoin is in the range where it might make possible jump to 7400, and drop down to 6000.
My model indicates growth to 4H/5H M/BB ~ 7100-7200.

Take care of your BTC and USD!

Note

Quick update at the 4H TF:

EMA 6 seeks up EMA 9, which seeks up EMA 12, which seeks up EMA 26 (though far away). SAR is about to be crossed. CCI passed -300,-200,-100. MACD crossed up signal line. +DI seeks - DI. %R is leaving oversold.

Very soon the answer should come. Good luck.

Note

For some time bitcoin slowed down at ~6700, but then still made it down to ~ 6400 - launching SL of leveraged traders, causing panic sales, and of course we are observing that more short positions are opened, with targets below 6000.

If someone reads my analysis, then I repeatedly wrote after the May’s "high" ~ 9990, that bitcoin might fall down to 6400 or 6900, and only after that there might be repeated local growth (up to 8700-9200). Thus, the forecasted target ~6400 is reached, and I follow my plan to increase positions: now I have two major longs: 6750 and 6500, SL is moved to 6200.

Let us analyze further possible movements:

1) Based on TIs, we can check the following:
At the 4H TF we have a number of positive projections: CCI=-96 (positive trend), ROC=-12 (positive trend), MACD=-220 (MACD near the signal line), DMI=50 (+DI < -DI), %R=-71.

At the 5H TF, there are no significant differences from the 4H TF, except for the ROC with the negative trend.

At the daily TF we have a number of mixed projections: CCI=-197 (positive trend), ROC=-13 (negative trend), MACD=-356 (MACD < signal line), DMI=38 (+DI < -DI), %R=-89.

In general, TIs point to two extremes: growth to 4H/5H M/BB ~ 6800-6900, or a drop to 4H/5H L/BB ~ 6200-6300 (this is why SL is moved to 6200).

2) Based on SMA/EMA, the situation has not changed for several days, so I repeat:
At the 4H/5H and daily TF: SMA/EMA with short periods are below SMA/EMA with long periods.
In general, MA indicate a continued fall.

Finally, bitcoin reached the ~ 6400, and now my model of analysis indicates, that we might expect a jump to 4H/5H M/BB ~ 6800-6900, which in turn will be a powerful signal for subsequent buys, and might rocket up to 4H/5H SMA/EMA50, 100, and then hitting up to daily SMA/EMA50, 100. Also, I assume that weekly candle would be closed above 7100-7200.

Take care of your BTC and USD!

Note

Bitcoin struck down 6400 and went beyond the limits of my model, but roughly the next moment buyers in large volumes supported a return above 6200, and maybe now we would observe further growth. Manipulators of the market (at this break down of 6400) absorbed a lot of long SLs, and this milestone launched a big opening of shorts, which now "hang" with a negative balance.

My model of analysis was knocked out below 6400. I fully agree with this. On the other hand, from the "height" of 9990 I saw ~6400, keeping the right to make a mistake. Showing the exact 64-meter mark, while standing at 100-meter mark - is not so easy. In any case, I still have two main longs: 6750 and 6500, SL 6200 (decided not to activate due to various reasons, one of them is oversold oscillators).

Let us analyze further possible movements:

1) On the basis of TIs, we can distinguish the following:
At the 4H TF, we have a number of positive projections: CCI=-59 (positive trend), ROC=-4 (positive trend), MACD=-218 (MACD > signal line), DMI=54 (ADX turned down, + DI seeks up -DI), %R=-53.
At the 5H TF, there are no significant differences from the 4H TF.
At the daily TF we have a number of mixed projections: CCI=-171 (positive trend), ROC=-13 (positive trend), MACD=-400 (MACD < signal line), DMI=40 (+DI < -DI), %R=-78.

In general, TIs indicate an increase to 4H/5H M/BB ~ 6600.

2) Based on SMA/EMA, the situation indicates potential changes:
At the 4H/5H TF, EMA6 seeks up to EMA9, which seeks up to EMA12. However, at 4H/5H and the daily TF still SMA/EMA with short periods are below SMA/EMA with long periods.

In general, MAs indicates a possible reversal of a downtrend.

Finally, bitcoin reached the point of ~ 6100, after which it jumped up to the current ~ 7500, indicating a possible continuation of the upward movement. Further analysis shows that bitcoin will reach 4H/5H M/BB ~ 6600. If this point is successfully broken up, you can expect the rocket to 4H/5H SMA/EMA50, 100, and then to daily SMA/EMA50, 100. Again, I repeat that my analysis shows: a weekly candle might close above 7100-7200.

Take care of your BTC and USD!

Note

Congratulations to bulls.

As expected: Further analysis shows that bitcoin will reach 4H/5H M/BB ~ 6600.

So now, If bitcoin fixes above it at 4H/5H TF, then we should rocket to U/BB ~ 6850-6950. Also, on the way we have R at 4H/5H SMA30, EMA26,30.

Good luck.

Note

According to the latest analysis, bitcoin reached 4H/5H M/BB ~6600, after which it is traded down-going M/BB and below the resistance at 4H SMA30, EMA26 and 5H EMA20. I still have two main longs: 6750 and 6500, TP ~7100-7200, SL 6200.

Let us analyze further possible movements:

1) Based on TIs:
At the 4H TF we have a number of mixed projections: CCI=13 (neutral trend), ROC=-4 (negative trend), MACD=-121 (MACD > signal line), DMI=45 (ADX tends down, +DI tends upwards to -DI), %R=-22.
At the 5H TF, there are no significant differences from the 4H TF, except for ROC=0 (positive trend) and %R, which did not reach overbought.
At the daily TF, we also have a number of mixed projections: CCI=-118 (positive trend), ROC=-10 (positive trend), MACD=-395 (MACD < signal line, DMI=41 (+DI < -DI), %R=-72.

In general, TIs indicate a small decrease (back test) to 4H/5H SMA10 ~6450, or lower but not touching daily L/BB ~6350.

2) The situation has not changed based on SMA/EMA, but still indicates potential upward changes:
At the 4H/5H TF, EMA6 crossed up to EMA9. However, at the 4H/5H and daily TF, still others SMA/EMA with short periods are below SMA/EMA with long periods. I draw your attention that daily SMA50 tends to cross down daily SMA100, assuming that this is back test.

In general, MAs indicate a possible reversal of a downtrend.

Finally, bitcoin reached 4H/5H M/BB ~6600, indicating a possible continuation of the upward movement. Further analysis shows that bitcoin might make a back test to 4H/5H SMA10 ~ 6450, or lower but not touching daily L/BB ~6350. If there is no back test and now 4H/5H M/BB holds – that is very good bullish sign. We can expect a breakthrough of 4H/5H EMA26 and further growth to 4H/5H U/BB ~ 6800-6900. I finish the work week with repeating, that my analysis shows: we might close the weekly candle above 7100-7200.

Take care of your BTC and USD!

Note

Note

According to the latest analysis, bitcoin did back test: firstly to 4H/5H SMA10 ~6450, and then lower to ~6350 (without touching the daily L/BB). A deeper swing occurred after breaking through the support at 1H SMA50, 4H SMA20, 5H SMA10, but I indicated that the next two 4-hour candles should not close below 6375 and 6400, and the current candle should not close below ~6415.

Let us analyze further possible movements:

1) Based on TIs:

At the 4H TF we have a number of negative projections: CCI=29 (negative trend), ROC=-1 (negative trend), MACD=-97 (MACD> signal line), DMI=39 (ADX tends down, +DI < -DI), %R=-69.

At the 5H TF, there are no significant differences from the 4H TF.

At the daily TF we have a number of mixed projections: CCI=-120 (positive trend), ROC=-12 (positive trend), MACD=-420 (MACD < signal line), DMI=41 (+DI < -DI), %R=-80.

In general, TIs point 2 extremes: if 4H closes below 6400 - then a fall down to 4H/5H L/BB ~ 6250. If the 6400 holds - then the growth to re-test 4H SMA30, EMA26, 5H EMA20 ~6550-6600.

2) Based on SMA/EMA, the situation has not changed:

At 4H/5H and the daily TF still SMA/EMA with short periods are below SMA/EMA with long periods.
I draw your attention that daily SMA50 crossed down daily SMA100.

Short-term, to move upward, bitcoin should pass 4H/5H significant resistances.

In general, MAs indicate a possible fall, after numbers of up-trend rejections.

Finally, bitcoin failed to hold above 4H/5H M/BB and further analysis shows that bitcoin might reach 4H/5H L/BB ~6250 (if 4H closes below ~6400). I give more probability that 6400 might hold and bitcoin would go up to 4H SMA30, EMA26, 5H EMA20 ~ 6550-6600. Though closing weekly candle above 7100-7200 is unlikely to happen.

Take care of your BTC and USD!

Note

Bitcoin has been in the 6300-6600 range for several days, without forming a single trend up or down. Besides, different indicators give the opposite signals, and everything depends only on the interpretation of these indicators. And of course, traders see the values of indicators, depending on which direction their positions are opened. I still have two major longs 6750 and 6500 open, and I slightly increased the long at ~6400.

Let us analyze further possible movements:
1) At the 4H time frame: Bitcoin seeks to test up M/BB ~6480. This is proved by TIs: CCI=-27 (positive trend), %R=-43, DMI=29 (+DI tends up -DI), and also proved by a turn from L/KC (20; 1). So, we have a signal for upwards re-test of EMA26. On the contrary, in case of downfall, bitcoin should not fix below L/DC ~6300, because then there will be an additional down signal.

2) At the daily time frame: Bitcoin seeks to test up M/BB, M/DC, M/KC ~ 6900-7100 (middle lines have a downtrend). This is proved by TIs: CCI=-90 (positive trend), %R=-80, DMI=45 (+DI < -DI), as well as a turn from the lower borders of these channels (fixing above L/BB and fixing above L/KC (20; 2).

3) Based on MAs the situation has not changed: SMA/EMA with short periods are below SMA/EMA with long periods.

Finally, analysis shows that today bitcoin might fall to 4H L/BB ~6350 (low probability), but should not fix below L/DC ~6300. Though we have more probability that the price might go up to 4H EMA26, and if it would fix above it – then bitcoin might gain steady growth to daily SMA20, EMA26. Take care of your BTC and USD!

Take care of your BTC and USD!

Note

Bitcoin escaped from the flat, making a jump to ~6800, while upwards signals started to appear a few hours before this jump, as it was written in a previous analysis.

Let us analyze further possible movements.

1) At the 4H time frame: After touching the upper bands of channels (BB, KC, DC) - bitcoin tends to confirm and prolong its growth. Though, we should not forget about possible test down of middle line of channels ~6600 (low probability). If to look at MAs analysis, then bitcoin slowed the growth near SMA/EMA60 - and now might take possible back-test down to EMA50 ~6650 or deeper to SMA50 ~6550. This is confirmed by TIs: CCI=153 (negative trend), %R=-34, except DMI=27 (+DI > -DI). Positive signal: EMA6> EMA9> EMA12> EMA26.

2) At the daily time frame: After bouncing from the lower bands of channels (BB, KC, DC) - bitcoin tends to test up the middle line of channels ~ 7000 (middle lines have a downtrend). This is confirmed by TIs: CCI=-53 (positive trend), %R=-65, DMI=43 (ADX potential reversal, +DI < -DI), and also confirmed by the progressive fixation of daily candles above L/KC (2, 1.5, 1 mult to ATR). EMA6, 9, 12 tend to cross each other up.

Finally, analysis shows that today bitcoin can test down to 6600 or deeper to 6550 (low probability). I estimate with higher probability that: after a successful back-test (if it even takes place), we should expect a possible upward test of EMA60 ~ 6725, and after fixing above this line - bitcoin might rush to EMA91, 100 ~ 6850-6950; and on the daily time frame this would look like the beginning of testing up the middle line of channel (BB, KC, DC) ~ 6950-7050.

Take care of your BTC and USD!

Note

I would watch the current 4H, if it closes below U/KC(20;1) ~6740, so then I would immediately close all my longs 6750, 6500 and 6400. Also TIs: CCI might fail to back test +100 line and so to make reversal down, %R needs to cool-down, ADX loses trend. Good luck!

Trade closed manually

Bitcoin could not develop an upward trend and already was 3 times down from ~6850. After the last "failure", I watched closely whether the bitcoin could hold above 4H U/KC (20;1) ~6760, and immediately closed all my longs (6750, 6500 and 6400) as soon as the candle closed below the mentioned U/KC. And just after that, we tested down M/KC and M/BB (in other words SMA/EMA20).

Let us analyze further possible movements:

1) At the 4H time frame: After touching the middle bands of the channels (BB, KC) - bitcoin made a slight rebound up, but this rebound does not show a clear trend formation. KC begins to change direction to neutral, BB narrows, CCI goes down, HA points down. If we consider MAs analysis - then bitcoin actively tests SMA10 and SMA20; EMA6 already tends down to EMA9, which tends down to EMA12.

2) At the daily time frame there are no crucial changes: After bouncing from the lower bands of the channels (BB, KC, DC) - bitcoin aspires to test up the middle bands of channels ~6900 (middle bands have a downtrend). This is confirmed by TIs: CCI=-40 (positive trend), %R=-62, except for DMI=43 (ADX potential reversal, +DI < -DI), and also confirmed by the progressive fixation of daylight candles above L/KC (2, 1.5 , 1 mult to ATR). EMA6, 9, 12 tend to cross each other up.

Conclusion: analysis shows that today bitcoin might test 4H L/KC (20;1) ~6600 or lower L/KC (20;1.5) ~6550 (at the MAs analysis this is 4H SMA30 ~6600 and 4H SMA50 ~6550). After that, I expect the rebound to go up, as we still have trend for testing upward middle bands of channels (BB, KC, DC) ~6900 on the daily time-frame.

If bitcoin fixes below L/KC(20;1.5) ~6550 then we would go down to ~6300-6400.

Take care of your BTC and USD!

DvdGoldberg

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