Exhaustion Zone Update: 2025–208
📉 Exhaustion Zone Update: The Bulls Charged… But the Zone Held
On Friday, BTC dipped to 114,700, printing a fresh Daily Swing Low — a classic liquidity grab. The bulls stormed in for reinforcements, pushed price back up late in the day…
but once again, the Exhaustion Zone stood its ground.
BTC closed lower than Thursday, and since then? Pure chop.
Feels like both bulls and bears took the weekend off to watch Netflix.
—
🔻 The Downward Trendline Still Rules
Today, it’s simple: Bulls must close above 118,477.
That’s the trendline test — hesitation here, and the bears come clawing.
Usually I’d say, "give the bulls until Monday"...
but this year has shown us one thing:
🐋 The Whales Hunt on Sundays.
If the bulls don’t step up today, we might learn the hard way why it’s called the Exhaustion Zone.
—
📉 The Risk if Bulls Fail
BTC already gathered all the bulls it could down at the Daily Swing Low — and they’re tired.
If they can’t break out, the High-Powered Short Zone (dashed red lines) will take over.
The bears? Heavy. Angry. Overdue for a window jump.
🎯 Next floors down:
• May ATH → 111,965
• January ATH → 109,354
That’s the Take Profit$ Zone 👇
And honestly? I’m letting a small short position ride in case the evil whales take us all the way to the 50% level (98,811).
—
📌 The Alpha View
To the bulls: It’s showtime.
Either close above 118,477 today…
or the All-Time High Parade might just reroute — straight down the fire escape. 🐻🔥
📉 Exhaustion Zone Update: The Bulls Charged… But the Zone Held
On Friday, BTC dipped to 114,700, printing a fresh Daily Swing Low — a classic liquidity grab. The bulls stormed in for reinforcements, pushed price back up late in the day…
but once again, the Exhaustion Zone stood its ground.
BTC closed lower than Thursday, and since then? Pure chop.
Feels like both bulls and bears took the weekend off to watch Netflix.
—
🔻 The Downward Trendline Still Rules
Today, it’s simple: Bulls must close above 118,477.
That’s the trendline test — hesitation here, and the bears come clawing.
Usually I’d say, "give the bulls until Monday"...
but this year has shown us one thing:
🐋 The Whales Hunt on Sundays.
If the bulls don’t step up today, we might learn the hard way why it’s called the Exhaustion Zone.
—
📉 The Risk if Bulls Fail
BTC already gathered all the bulls it could down at the Daily Swing Low — and they’re tired.
If they can’t break out, the High-Powered Short Zone (dashed red lines) will take over.
The bears? Heavy. Angry. Overdue for a window jump.
🎯 Next floors down:
• May ATH → 111,965
• January ATH → 109,354
That’s the Take Profit$ Zone 👇
And honestly? I’m letting a small short position ride in case the evil whales take us all the way to the 50% level (98,811).
—
📌 The Alpha View
To the bulls: It’s showtime.
Either close above 118,477 today…
or the All-Time High Parade might just reroute — straight down the fire escape. 🐻🔥
Trade active
🐂 Bulls Made a Move — Now We Manage RiskI once heard: “The bears sound smart, but the bulls make money.”
And look — I love being the contrarian. When the crowd cheers, I’m usually eyeing the exits.
But at the end of the day? The chart wins. Not the ego.
Today, the bulls won.
📈 It wasn’t a blowout (low volume), but they broke above $119K with structure — and now, it's time for something every real trader respects:
Risk Management.
—
🎯 BTC Short Thesis — Stop Loss Scenarios
📍1. Aggressive Stop (Tight Risk Control)
📌 $119,800–$120,000
• Just above today’s high.
• Great for traders looking to cut quick and re-enter.
• If bulls push even slightly higher, this gets tagged fast.
📍2. Conservative Stop (Structure-Based)
📌 $121,000–$121,300
• Above local highs + top of the Exhaustion Zone
• Gives room for fakeouts and stop hunts.
• Keeps you in if price wobbles before failing.
📍3. Invalidated Thesis Stop (Flip-Flop Zone)
📌 $123,200–$124,180
• Clear breakout above multi-timeframe resistance
• Includes reclaim of ATH region
• If we live above this… it’s time to switch sides. No shame. Herd’s going that way.
📍4. The Staunch Bear Special
📌 Add to the short — if we hit the long-term trendline from 2017 (Top Red Dashes)
• That level = technical heavy resistance
• But check momentum first — tired bulls are one thing, but if they’re juiced up, be cautious.
—
📌 The Alpha View
Yes, the short thesis is still alive… until we break ATH.
But the strength of today’s move deserves respect — even if the volume didn’t scream conviction.
Could this just be whales satisfying a sudden craving for bear meat? Maybe.
But if you’re going to play the bear game,
🎯 Define your stop
💡 Stick to your levels
🧠 Don’t let your bias become your downfall
Stay Sharp! Kick Your id!
Trade closed: target reached
📉 BTC Breakdown Confirmed: The Cleanse BeginsThe bulls fought hard… but exhaustion finally took over.
—
🔺 What Just Happened:
• BTC consolidated inside the Exhaustion Zone for weeks.
• It finally broke down — and did so with increased volume.
• This marks the shift: Consolidation → Distribution → Markdown.
🔻 Why It Matters:
• Symmetrical triangles can go either way — but volume confirms intent.
• This wasn’t just a wobble — it was a structural break.
• Breakdown = valid, and the move can accelerate fast.
—
🚩 Bearish Continuation Setup:
• Failure to reclaim 117K quickly → rallies get sold.
• If 114.7K fails, next magnet = 112K–109K take profit$ zone.
• No RSI divergence + strong momentum = probability tilts bearish
• We’re officially in the Markdown Phase:
• Price discovery is now happening below prior support
• Until bulls reclaim 117.6K+ with volume, every bounce = short setup, not reversal
—
📌 Current Bias: (Trade Not Closed, look for the high powered short zone)
• Bearish — with risk of oversold bounce
• Mid-Term (1D): Breakdown confirmed — 112–110K likely if 114.7K cracks
• Long-Term: Still within macro uptrend, but this is the first real test of structural support since July
—
🧠 The Alpha View
This was a nail-biter.
Most bulls got caught flat-footed.
The cleanse is underway — and if you're not disciplined, the market will handle that for you.
Stay sharp. Stay regulated.
The trend doesn't care about feelings — just follow the patterns in the charts.
For crypto charts, trading insight and the patterns in my head.
Follow on X: @TheAlphaView
🧠Stay Sharp! Stack Sats!🪙
Follow on X: @TheAlphaView
🧠Stay Sharp! Stack Sats!🪙
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
For crypto charts, trading insight and the patterns in my head.
Follow on X: @TheAlphaView
🧠Stay Sharp! Stack Sats!🪙
Follow on X: @TheAlphaView
🧠Stay Sharp! Stack Sats!🪙
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.