Long

Updated

Cryptogame - The Next Cycle

This is probably the end of the bear wave which commenced on the 17th of December 2017 after the BTC Futures listing.

Most of the alts have lost more than 90% of their ATH values.

This is the time to make your decision and to choose wisely.

My primary list is:
IOTA
XLM
ADA
PRL
SHL
EOS
OMG

Secondary list:
BTG
XRP
QTUM
TRX
BCH
NEO
ETH
DSH
XMR

ETH and NEO are at the bottom for many reasons. Even though the ICO scam pumps may raise the price again once more, I personally do not see ETH or NEO taking the lead this time. The leaders are included in the primary list for me.

I personally think IOTA is a steal at the current price. There is just too much going on with IOTA as compared to any other alt even with all the controversies. If XRP can go to $3.30, then IOTA surely can go to $30 with less than 1/10th the supply and more than 10000x applicability than XRP.

Time will tell...

I will keep adding updates as we go along....

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BTC ETF update:

coindesk.com/sec-asks-for-more-comments-on-rejected-bitcoin-etfs/

I think that the ETF will be approved by the end of February 2019 or may be MArch 2019. There is still a possibility of BTC falling below 6k once more, but I do not expect BTC price to stay below 6k for long. Of course anything can happen, so please do your own research and buy only with the intention of holding medium to long term now.

The next cycle should take BTC to 35k to 50k range at least. With it, the alts which have had a lot of development over the past 10 months DURING the bear cycle should be the ones to rise up and break their previous ATH.

Regarding EOS, I am not that bullish. The top team behind EOS from Block.One is working on another project in a new team called Strong.Block. They will be announcing their coin at some point. Rather than investing in EOS, I will aim for that coin.

Also I am waiting for the British Radix DLT team to release their coin.

Wish everyone all the best.

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IOTA in a nutshell...

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BTCUSD - Bitfinex Long-Term Chart

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Sorry for not being able to update on this idea earlier. I have been very busy at work and cryptomarket is not showing any signs of another long-term bull run yet.

As you can see from the updated chart, BTC price fell below the long-term upward trendline in November. There are many reasons, but to me it is mainly related to Tether and associated issues that arose some time in October. Now the market is getting pretty saturated with the so called "stablecoins".

BTC ETF still proves to be a goal which is quite difficult to achieve. Political climate will have some influence over this. Add to that the issues with market manipulation and lack of regulations. However, a short term rally cannot be ruled out, thanks to new BTC Futures listings by some big names.... and then as always, 'buy the rumor, sell the news'.

6000$ will now prove to be a major resistance in the future. I think BTC will touch 2200$ at some point though. It will also have an impact on all altcoins as well.

The best strategy at this time is not to trade, but to buy and hold. I would advise against investing more than 20% of your savings though. BTC can still go below 2000$ if the SolidX BTC ETF application is refused in the last week of February/beginning of March 2019.

XLM, IOTA, ADA, EOS is where my money will go. ETH and NEO are the next choices. BCH and LTC have no appeal and will likely just ride on the shoulders of BTC along with other altcoins.

Anyone saying that 2019 will definitely be a year of the bulls, well that person is at best speculating, and at worst - lying. We will probably see a V-shaped drop to sub 3k USD for BTC before the slow bull run commences.

Keeping in mind I now firmly believe that the whole stock market and by extension the whole world will enter another period of recession worse than 2008 starting in 2019, I am not sure how it will impact on crypto prices. One thing is for sure though, institutional money will not enter cryptomarkets when the whole world is burning...

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The red resistance/downtrend line has been broken today.

Initial target for BTC is $6400-$6500 by the end of April/beginning of May 2019.

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Target of $6500 holds....

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Additional target of $7000-$7200 possible.

However, a correction is now long overdue in the current news climate....

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Let the games begin....

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Correction imminent....

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Hi everyone. Just wanted to share my thoughts. BTC has had a fantastic rally over the past few months, and exceeded my expectations. My initial target was $6500, but eventually it did touch the final target of 9k - 9.2k.

This is where the Wyckoff distribution is taking place in my view. And once BTC is sold at the desired values, the price will correct back to where the support levels are, bouncing all the way down, but not making a new low. I honestly believe that the bear cycle is over and the cryptomarket is in the slow uptrend/consolidation phase. Of note is that in June the CBOE Futures are going to finish their last cycle and will no longer exist. Also, we have to keep in mind that the Van Eck BTC ETF application was powered by CBOE... ... ... That does not mean that BTC ETF will not get approved. It will eventually, but the likelihood of this happening very soon is not that good.

Anyway. In this chart you can see that BTC is now forming a upward pointing wedge pattern and is more likely to fall down. It should follow the same pattern as it has done several times in 2018, i.e. Wyckoff cycles. For example, February-April, then April-June, and then June-August in 2018. However, no more lower lows expected.

TP1 = $7000-$7400
TP2 = $6000-$6500
TP3 (ideal and BTC is not likely to fall below this level) = $5000 - $5200.

I would recommend loading up on XLM, ADA, IOTA, EOS and NEO. Just for the sake of it, if you can muster, then I recommend buying LEO coin at Bitfinex (yes, LEO!). I think the price will drop initially, and may even go as low as 50 to 60 cents, but then it will pump like BNB has. I have my reasons and I do expect this to happen. I thiink LEO will touch double digits by next year at most.

Wishing everyone all the best!

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This is what I think it is, and is leading to....

Wyckoff or Head & Shoulders pattern...

$5500-$6000 should be the bottom...

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July 2015:

July 2016:

July 2017...

July 2018

And currently.... July 2019:

Of course I could be entirely wrong here....

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Amendment to the above...

And thoughts on LTC...

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BTC is likely to continue its uptrend till the halving date (middle of May 2020). Alts will likely follow.

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Hi everyone,

Been a while since I posted an update to this chart. I have been busy at work, and now that COVID-19 pandemic is battering the economy, perhaps it is time to look at things with a broader perspective.

Bitcoin has acted like as asset, as a store of value if anyone would like to call it that, rather than a currency. In fact, it is now clear that not even one single cryptocurrency, apart from the stable coins like USDT, USDC, BUSD and others.

Stock markets started to fall around mid February 2020 after the fear of COVID-19/Coronavirus infection intensified. Then governments started to share some of their insights with general public. During this time, there were rumours/news on various cryptocurrency news websites that large amounts of Bitcoin, Ripple and other top cryptocurrencies were being sold by the so-called whales. This brought down the price from 1.55k to around 8k initially. This was then followed by panic selling on the 12th of March, the likes of which are rarely seen anywhere else in trading.

What happened was that the stock market was crashing alongside cryptocurrencies. May be we have margin trading to blame for as well, as we can clearly see the effects of it on Bitmex. One of the big examples is the LINKUSDT chart, which reflects the price drop to 0.0001$ (margin longs liquidated). Bitcoin and all other cryptocurrencies are speculative assets. PERIOD. There is no denying that. I have been following the BLOCKCHAIN space since 2013 and so far I have not seen any life changing implications in our daily lives applied by this tech. Sure it works, but can we live without it, or find an improved way to apply other Fintech products with blockchain? Time will tell.

People were losing money in the stock market, and after the big-shot whales sold their coins, they are going to want to buy it back much lower. THIS IS NOT A HOAX. We all know this is true. What better way to work around this than to peg the price of BTC (and hence the entire cryptocurrency space) with the stock markets at this time of COVID-19 induced Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt, and watch the show? This is exactly what is happening right now.

I have been closely observing the UKX and SPX charts patterns, which have been moving with the price of Bitcoin for the past one week (apart from weekends of course). Hence, I am very keen to observe SPX and UKX charts with those of BTC on multiple time-frames. just to get an idea of what to expect.

SPX is likely to fall slightly more to 2016 support levels, reflected in the chart below. This will probably be a dead-cat bounce, and will be followed by another final wave down to 208-2009 levels within the next 30-90 days time. That, and I mean it, will be the time to buy!

In terms of cryptos, my focus has shifted to other coins like WRX (Wazir-X), HBAR, MATIC and Algorand.

I will post other updates soon.

Wish everyone all the best. Stay safe and healthy.

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Just a general update....

I have been noticing BTC's recovery pattern, and it looks like it is now rising in waves in line with the world's stock markets.

Starting with STW (Australia), NI225 (Japan), SHCOMP (China), UKX (United Kingdom), E100 (Europe - same time as UKs), and then to DJI, SPX and NASDAQ (USA). Over the weekend, BTC follows its own path.

UnknownUnicorn995432

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