Global markets are heading to close the year with a very positive outlook, especially the US stock markets, which broke several historical price records. But all this euphoria may be approaching a 2018 marked by investor testing, as according to Deutsche Bank economist Torsten Slok, there will be at least 30 risks in the next year.
Among the events listed are the direction of inflation in the US, elections in several countries, a bitcoin crash, and Brexit's next steps.
Risks should be thought "not just as VIX drivers, but also as potential sources of faster or slower growth than what we have in our baseline forecast," Slok wrote in a report last week.
Among the big risks for 2018, central banks are prominent, with particular attention to the test that new Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell will have. In addition, the Bank of Japan can see its current chairman, Haruhiko Kuroda, replaced, and may lead to a change in policy adopted by the Japanese authority. And there is also the possibility that the European Central Bank will signal the end of its easing policy in the second quarter, the economist said.
Slok also points to the potential bursting of real estate bubbles in Australia, Canada, China, Norway or Sweden. Another point of high tension are the elections in Ireland, Italy, Russia, USA and the United Kingdom. Check out the 30 risks that investors should keep an eye on in 2018, according to Deutsche Bank:
1) Inflation in the US in the second quarter
2) CRASH DO BITCOIN, impact on investor confidence
3) Increase in spreads between quality and higher risk bonds in the US because of the lower external appetite
4) Test of the new leadership of the Federal Reserve
5) Inflation in Germany higher than expected
6) Wages in Germany higher than expected
7) Ending of negative rates on obligations in the EU; impact on global markets
8) Change of leadership in the Bank of Japan
9) Discharge of US Treasury bonds and German bonds due to the end of the EQ
10) Misalignment between US stock valuation and its fundamentals
11) Correction of actions in the USA
12) Increase in volatility due to high inflation, geopolitical shocks and reduction of global EQ
13) ECB signaling the end of asset purchases in the second quarter
14) North Korea
15) Greater than expected positive impact of US tax reform
16) Continued increase in inequality in the USA
17) The investigation of Robert Mueller in the USA
18) Legislative elections in the USA
19) Elections in Italy
20) Brexit's Future
21) New government in the UK?
22) Decision to revert Brexit?
23) Presidential elections in Ireland
24) Local elections in the United Kingdom
25) Presidential elections in Russia
26) Rise in commodity prices
27) Bursting of the real estate bubble in Canada or Australia
28) bursting of the real estate bubble in Sweden or Norway
29) China real estate bubble burst associated with a correction of the Chinese stock market
30) Slowing Down on China's Economic Growth More Than Expected
Among the events listed are the direction of inflation in the US, elections in several countries, a bitcoin crash, and Brexit's next steps.
Risks should be thought "not just as VIX drivers, but also as potential sources of faster or slower growth than what we have in our baseline forecast," Slok wrote in a report last week.
Among the big risks for 2018, central banks are prominent, with particular attention to the test that new Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell will have. In addition, the Bank of Japan can see its current chairman, Haruhiko Kuroda, replaced, and may lead to a change in policy adopted by the Japanese authority. And there is also the possibility that the European Central Bank will signal the end of its easing policy in the second quarter, the economist said.
Slok also points to the potential bursting of real estate bubbles in Australia, Canada, China, Norway or Sweden. Another point of high tension are the elections in Ireland, Italy, Russia, USA and the United Kingdom. Check out the 30 risks that investors should keep an eye on in 2018, according to Deutsche Bank:
1) Inflation in the US in the second quarter
2) CRASH DO BITCOIN, impact on investor confidence
3) Increase in spreads between quality and higher risk bonds in the US because of the lower external appetite
4) Test of the new leadership of the Federal Reserve
5) Inflation in Germany higher than expected
6) Wages in Germany higher than expected
7) Ending of negative rates on obligations in the EU; impact on global markets
8) Change of leadership in the Bank of Japan
9) Discharge of US Treasury bonds and German bonds due to the end of the EQ
10) Misalignment between US stock valuation and its fundamentals
11) Correction of actions in the USA
12) Increase in volatility due to high inflation, geopolitical shocks and reduction of global EQ
13) ECB signaling the end of asset purchases in the second quarter
14) North Korea
15) Greater than expected positive impact of US tax reform
16) Continued increase in inequality in the USA
17) The investigation of Robert Mueller in the USA
18) Legislative elections in the USA
19) Elections in Italy
20) Brexit's Future
21) New government in the UK?
22) Decision to revert Brexit?
23) Presidential elections in Ireland
24) Local elections in the United Kingdom
25) Presidential elections in Russia
26) Rise in commodity prices
27) Bursting of the real estate bubble in Canada or Australia
28) bursting of the real estate bubble in Sweden or Norway
29) China real estate bubble burst associated with a correction of the Chinese stock market
30) Slowing Down on China's Economic Growth More Than Expected
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.