Bitcoin, From Ultra Bear to Neutral, or Waiting for Monday
Updated
Just continue here as a follow up on the previous analysis.
There is the random action again. We are at a tough spot here, find it hard to say what the most likely outcome is here, at least for the coming day or so.
When looking at the daily/weekly, its a big fat sell/bearish setup. But when going to lower time frames, it's looking pretty decent now. Even yesterday's dump from 6900 to 5700, is showing a neutral, slightly bullish picture now. Yesterday's bounce from the 5700 low was pretty strong. Then we got the bearish wedge/flag i posted yesterday which played out, but fell bit short for even the wedge target (5650/750). Now once again hanging around 6200 which seems to be a middle ground here.
On the left, i have the green and red zones. Because current price action is a bit similar to a few days ago (5500/5000). Also a lot of noise in that range, same as we are seeing now. As you can see, each time price moves to the low or high of the range, the candle close shows a wick each time. So, would make sense to say, that when we see a candle close on the 4H, in side the green/red it's prob a good sign of what the direction will be. Closing above/below it, should then be a confirmation of the direction. This is not the way i personally prefer, because when trying to trade that, you get a shitty price, especially when the move turns out to be a trap.
Crypto followed the stock market quite a bit past 2 weeks, Those closed at week lows and looks like they might continue dumping again on Monday, so would make sense to think Bitcoin will drop along with it. As mentioned in the previous analysis, i am still bearish for several reason, but as said then and now maybe even but more, not confident about it, because i am not seeing any real panic selling. We had the drop yesterday, 1200 points, but only to wick up 700 points withing a few hours. So that is not showing any real weakness.
So this is more of a moment to wait on the sidelines i think. Also because we are in the middle of the range again here. If for example, we would see a move to 6400/6500, but then a wick down again below 6200/100, (all with good volume), it could be a sign of weakness and something to go on. Other way around would be similar.
So think in general, great time to relax during the weekend, because i think we will be quite busy again when the stock market opens on Monday. About the 6800ish from my previous analysis, still stands. Wish i could be a bit more clear about what will happen, sometimes it's easy, sometimes it's hard. I find this bit difficult now, because my reasons for being bearish still stand and i wont just change not because of some rally yesterday, but i have learned in my career, it's no use fighting something, so being TOO stubborn is usually a bad idea. At the moment, bit too much conflicting signs, meaning i see a bit too many bullish signs as well. I won't be watching closely today, but if i see something, that could tell what the direction will be for the coming days, i will update.
Previous analysis:
There is the random action again. We are at a tough spot here, find it hard to say what the most likely outcome is here, at least for the coming day or so.
When looking at the daily/weekly, its a big fat sell/bearish setup. But when going to lower time frames, it's looking pretty decent now. Even yesterday's dump from 6900 to 5700, is showing a neutral, slightly bullish picture now. Yesterday's bounce from the 5700 low was pretty strong. Then we got the bearish wedge/flag i posted yesterday which played out, but fell bit short for even the wedge target (5650/750). Now once again hanging around 6200 which seems to be a middle ground here.
On the left, i have the green and red zones. Because current price action is a bit similar to a few days ago (5500/5000). Also a lot of noise in that range, same as we are seeing now. As you can see, each time price moves to the low or high of the range, the candle close shows a wick each time. So, would make sense to say, that when we see a candle close on the 4H, in side the green/red it's prob a good sign of what the direction will be. Closing above/below it, should then be a confirmation of the direction. This is not the way i personally prefer, because when trying to trade that, you get a shitty price, especially when the move turns out to be a trap.
Crypto followed the stock market quite a bit past 2 weeks, Those closed at week lows and looks like they might continue dumping again on Monday, so would make sense to think Bitcoin will drop along with it. As mentioned in the previous analysis, i am still bearish for several reason, but as said then and now maybe even but more, not confident about it, because i am not seeing any real panic selling. We had the drop yesterday, 1200 points, but only to wick up 700 points withing a few hours. So that is not showing any real weakness.
So this is more of a moment to wait on the sidelines i think. Also because we are in the middle of the range again here. If for example, we would see a move to 6400/6500, but then a wick down again below 6200/100, (all with good volume), it could be a sign of weakness and something to go on. Other way around would be similar.
So think in general, great time to relax during the weekend, because i think we will be quite busy again when the stock market opens on Monday. About the 6800ish from my previous analysis, still stands. Wish i could be a bit more clear about what will happen, sometimes it's easy, sometimes it's hard. I find this bit difficult now, because my reasons for being bearish still stand and i wont just change not because of some rally yesterday, but i have learned in my career, it's no use fighting something, so being TOO stubborn is usually a bad idea. At the moment, bit too much conflicting signs, meaning i see a bit too many bullish signs as well. I won't be watching closely today, but if i see something, that could tell what the direction will be for the coming days, i will update.
Previous analysis:
Note
Look at this crap, almost looked like a legit move, volume was low but it's weekend. As i described before, the trap moves are different now. Where we used to see wicks, now it moves slower it seems. Breaking a resistance/support, hang there a bit and come back again. Wonder if we would drop to 5900/700 (breaking 6050 support), and if it would come back again. Anyway, again the 4H candle did NOT close in or above the green zone. 6200/30ish is a resistance now, if it doesnt break, could see another drop. 6050 is a support and prob todays low around 5900 as well
Note
Honestly dont wanna update here, because these random moves sometimes make me look like a fool :), but its part of the job i am doing here. Anyway, if we stay below the red here around 6230ish, it could be that trend line is real and that it will prob break then. That could trigger a bigger drop and could make that bear flag i talked about in my previous analysis (the smaller one), could still be in play
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