Good Day and I hope you are well.
comment: Bulls finally got the breakout on Wednesday and we printed the new ath. My max upside target was around 115/116k and the high so far is 112k. Can we do more? Bull trend line is unbroken, so yeah. We have seen 3 clear legs up and betting on more is always a bad strategy. My broader bearish bias also includes btc and I expect another try above 110k but it can be a higher high or lower high, you never know in advance.
current market cycle: Broad bull channel on the weekly and monthly chart. Daily is in a tight bull channel that will likely break next week
key levels: 100k - 115k
bull case: Bulls are fine as long as the trend line holds and they stay above 100k. I don’t have any targets above 116k and I do think we are in the last stretches of this trend. So if you are looking for confirmation bias on your “btc to 1mil”, you have come to the wrong place.
Invalidation is below 100k.
bear case: Bears need the daily close below 100k and/or print a clear lower high. Right now we have one big bear bar from Friday with terrible follow-through. Bears are not doing enough so don’t be early. I expect btc to hit at least 80k again this year but for now there is not much more to comment on until bears come around. Worst case for bears would be sideways above 100k for 2-3 weeks because that would be huge confirmation and bulls could dream about prices above 120k.
Invalidation is above 116k.
short term: Neutral. Expecting another try above 100k but that should conclude this bull trend. Only interested in shorts once bears come around.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-05-25: Will update this next week but plan here is the same as other markets. I wait for this to top out and trade it back down to 80k over the summer.
comment: Bulls finally got the breakout on Wednesday and we printed the new ath. My max upside target was around 115/116k and the high so far is 112k. Can we do more? Bull trend line is unbroken, so yeah. We have seen 3 clear legs up and betting on more is always a bad strategy. My broader bearish bias also includes btc and I expect another try above 110k but it can be a higher high or lower high, you never know in advance.
current market cycle: Broad bull channel on the weekly and monthly chart. Daily is in a tight bull channel that will likely break next week
key levels: 100k - 115k
bull case: Bulls are fine as long as the trend line holds and they stay above 100k. I don’t have any targets above 116k and I do think we are in the last stretches of this trend. So if you are looking for confirmation bias on your “btc to 1mil”, you have come to the wrong place.
Invalidation is below 100k.
bear case: Bears need the daily close below 100k and/or print a clear lower high. Right now we have one big bear bar from Friday with terrible follow-through. Bears are not doing enough so don’t be early. I expect btc to hit at least 80k again this year but for now there is not much more to comment on until bears come around. Worst case for bears would be sideways above 100k for 2-3 weeks because that would be huge confirmation and bulls could dream about prices above 120k.
Invalidation is above 116k.
short term: Neutral. Expecting another try above 100k but that should conclude this bull trend. Only interested in shorts once bears come around.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-05-25: Will update this next week but plan here is the same as other markets. I wait for this to top out and trade it back down to 80k over the summer.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.