BTC is One Break Away From an Extremely Bearish Chart.
Updated
The attempt at a new high so far has been unsuccessful. Producing a big wick. We've recently hit the area where I think the critical supports are.
If BTC can not rally out of this area, I think we're going to see a rug pull.
Critical support I think was around 62,500. We've traded under it and my bias is towards a break coming (Although when it comes to trading I'm always more careful at supports. I'm trailing stops from previous entries). If there is a break of this level, strong drop and close down - an extremely ugly monthly chart reversal PA signal will form.
Case for a Sharp Break.
There are a couple ways we can make a case for this either being the low made in BTC or a stronger break under the lows. These currently skew bias towards the bear break but it does have to be respected tricky spike outs can happen and bears might just be getting baited.
One thing we have is the 76 support. This will usually be the low in a good strong uptrend and if it breaks we'll usually see a capitulation swing to the 1.27 fib (At least). Which is about 55,000 in BTC.
Additionally to this the low is off a 1.61 extension of the last rally. Again the typical conditions here are the low is made or there's going to be a stronger break under the 1.61.
Both of these have ran a tiny bit further than we'd usually expect to see in a bull move. Given weight to the bear case but it really does need to see that new low and strong break to solidify it.
The case for a strong break and drop is very good. If we get under the lows, this would be the most common outcome.
And we've only got 10 days or so left of the month. So if this break happened and then there was a few days of consolidation, we'd be closing with that BIG SKETCHY BEAR CANDLE.
The risk of a false breakout is significant.
If we've had a false breakout, there will be a rug pull. I never rarely speak in absolutes but it really is almost inevitable. If the breakout turns out to have been stop hunting/bull baiting - there will be a rug pull.
Case for a bull breakout is really very good if we can get above the highs again. One caveat I'd add is there is the possibility of some sort of double wick.
Should never under estimate how much the market hates traders. Something like that would be great for screwing up maximum amount of people on both sides.
I think the odds are extremely high if the next level of supports break we're going to see the start of a series of events that will result in a sickening rug pull.
====
Related posts:
Did the BTC uptrend fail in 2022?
Will the BTC Breakout Stick? Or is it Just a Wick?
Big Decision Level for BTC.
Final Attempt at BTC Short (This post has running updates on small charts action).
Are You Risking What You Can Afford to Lose?
Debunking Popular Bull Thesis
Crypto Trading and Problem Gambling: What Does Science Say?
Real Word Effects of Deflationary Currency Hoarding
What Will be the Fate of the World's Most Divisive Asset?
If BTC can not rally out of this area, I think we're going to see a rug pull.
Critical support I think was around 62,500. We've traded under it and my bias is towards a break coming (Although when it comes to trading I'm always more careful at supports. I'm trailing stops from previous entries). If there is a break of this level, strong drop and close down - an extremely ugly monthly chart reversal PA signal will form.
Case for a Sharp Break.
There are a couple ways we can make a case for this either being the low made in BTC or a stronger break under the lows. These currently skew bias towards the bear break but it does have to be respected tricky spike outs can happen and bears might just be getting baited.
One thing we have is the 76 support. This will usually be the low in a good strong uptrend and if it breaks we'll usually see a capitulation swing to the 1.27 fib (At least). Which is about 55,000 in BTC.
Additionally to this the low is off a 1.61 extension of the last rally. Again the typical conditions here are the low is made or there's going to be a stronger break under the 1.61.
Both of these have ran a tiny bit further than we'd usually expect to see in a bull move. Given weight to the bear case but it really does need to see that new low and strong break to solidify it.
The case for a strong break and drop is very good. If we get under the lows, this would be the most common outcome.
And we've only got 10 days or so left of the month. So if this break happened and then there was a few days of consolidation, we'd be closing with that BIG SKETCHY BEAR CANDLE.
The risk of a false breakout is significant.
If we've had a false breakout, there will be a rug pull. I never rarely speak in absolutes but it really is almost inevitable. If the breakout turns out to have been stop hunting/bull baiting - there will be a rug pull.
Case for a bull breakout is really very good if we can get above the highs again. One caveat I'd add is there is the possibility of some sort of double wick.
Should never under estimate how much the market hates traders. Something like that would be great for screwing up maximum amount of people on both sides.
I think the odds are extremely high if the next level of supports break we're going to see the start of a series of events that will result in a sickening rug pull.
====
Related posts:
Did the BTC uptrend fail in 2022?
Will the BTC Breakout Stick? Or is it Just a Wick?
Big Decision Level for BTC.
Final Attempt at BTC Short (This post has running updates on small charts action).
Are You Risking What You Can Afford to Lose?
Debunking Popular Bull Thesis
Crypto Trading and Problem Gambling: What Does Science Say?
Real Word Effects of Deflationary Currency Hoarding
What Will be the Fate of the World's Most Divisive Asset?
Note
I never say "I told you so". If I have something I think might be useful to say I say it beforehand. Usually make a big effort to explain my case while I think it may be useful. After, there's nothing to be said. But let me say now, if this does happen it was the most obvious (Albeit hard to position short for) rug pull setup there's ever been.
The arrogance we'd expect to see in bull pre rug pull is palpable.
Note
It's a popular belief that people only do analysis on things in a style that suits what they want/hope for. This is a childish way to approach a market. It's best to have strong plans for the things you do not want to happen.
You already know how you'll do well if what you hope for happens.
Disclaimer
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