Hello,
This chart is a Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on a weekly timeframe (1W) from BITSTAMP, with annotations around halving cycles, historical patterns, and projected tops. Let’s break down the key insights and patterns visible in this chart, especially focusing on the implications for the next potential top following the 4th halving on April 20, 2024.
🔁 Cycle Structure and Repeating Patterns
Each cycle is defined between two halving events:
1st Halving: Nov 28, 2012
2nd Halving: Jul 9, 2016
3rd Halving: May 11, 2020
4th Halving: Apr 20, 2024
Each halving is followed by:
Accumulation/Sideways Period (marked in purple boxes)
Strong Bull Run to a new all-time high
Sharp Correction
Longer consolidation until the next halving
So, we use historical halving-based fractals to forecast the next Bitcoin bull cycle top around October 2025, assuming a consistent 525-day post-halving rally. The current price structure aligns closely with prior cycles, suggesting BTC is still on track. If the pattern holds, we may see a strong upward trend from mid/late 2024 into late 2025, with a potential blow-off top near the cycle peak.
⚠️ Caveats
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results
Each cycle may rhyme but not repeat exactly – macro conditions, regulations, ETFs, institutional flows, and global liquidity all play bigger roles now
Diminishing returns are evident – each cycle's ROI peak is lower
This chart is a Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on a weekly timeframe (1W) from BITSTAMP, with annotations around halving cycles, historical patterns, and projected tops. Let’s break down the key insights and patterns visible in this chart, especially focusing on the implications for the next potential top following the 4th halving on April 20, 2024.
🔁 Cycle Structure and Repeating Patterns
Each cycle is defined between two halving events:
1st Halving: Nov 28, 2012
2nd Halving: Jul 9, 2016
3rd Halving: May 11, 2020
4th Halving: Apr 20, 2024
Each halving is followed by:
Accumulation/Sideways Period (marked in purple boxes)
Strong Bull Run to a new all-time high
Sharp Correction
Longer consolidation until the next halving
So, we use historical halving-based fractals to forecast the next Bitcoin bull cycle top around October 2025, assuming a consistent 525-day post-halving rally. The current price structure aligns closely with prior cycles, suggesting BTC is still on track. If the pattern holds, we may see a strong upward trend from mid/late 2024 into late 2025, with a potential blow-off top near the cycle peak.
⚠️ Caveats
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results
Each cycle may rhyme but not repeat exactly – macro conditions, regulations, ETFs, institutional flows, and global liquidity all play bigger roles now
Diminishing returns are evident – each cycle's ROI peak is lower
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.