Overview: Nighttime in the U.S. market. Friday ended down, Saturday was flat, and Sunday saw another decline. The week closed in the green but formed a large star candle, indicating uncertainty in the market following the previous week, though volatility was significant. We remain within the range defined by two W levels, with minimal and almost non-existent volume.
Alts Relative to BTC: Most altcoins posted gains on Sunday because Friday and Saturday were down, while BTC saw losses on Sunday. Alts corrected more sharply but rebounded earlier. SUI had the largest pump, up 53%, following the announcement that Grayscale is launching its trust along with TAO (Bittensor), which only rose by 20%. This raises questions: Will there be more demand for TAO, or was the demand already consumed by VCs unloading their TAO? Or is it due to TAO not being listed on Coinbase? Given that Coinbase is a custodian for nearly all ETFs, it’s puzzling why TAO isn’t available there.
Bull Case: Everyone expects a collapse, but bulls are holding onto their BTC, and selling pressure subsides. Altcoins have already compressed and eliminated most of their gains (except SOL) and are ready to rally. ETH: On the daily chart, we are halfway to the Bollinger Bands' moving average, suggesting it might trend further up.
Bear Case: The hype around crypto has faded, and BTC could collapse to 52k or 43.8k. Japan has raised interest rates, and the U.S. might enter a recession, potentially lowering rates. However, crypto isn't reacting because there may be no money available in the market. We could be at the peak of the last high point, with a correction looming as the recession begins.
Fear and Greed Index: 50.24, down for the second day in a row, away from the Greed territory.
Weekly Outlook (W): Last week formed a green star, indicating market indecision. The market could move sideways between 52.1k and 63.1k.
Daily Outlook (D): If the market continues to wobble, it may collide with the falling Bollinger Bands' moving average in 4 days.
4-Hour Outlook (4h): The last two candles formed stars, signaling market indecision, but a big move is likely coming, probably around 10 p.m. in the U.S. (6 hours from now). The price didn’t bounce from the lower Bollinger Band level but instead pushed it lower. We see a three black crows candle pattern, suggesting a trend reversal. However, there’s no divergence, and the RSI is in the middle rather than at the top.
1-Hour Outlook (1h): On Sunday morning, the price broke through the previous daily level of 60.2k, dropping by 3.2%, but stopped at another daily level of 58.2k.
Prediction: The price might return to 60.2k, but it will face strong resistance since that support has been lost. After that, expect a downward move. TAO might go higher as demand from Grayscale could still be a factor.
Opportunity: Consider buying TAO, but it’s extremely risky to buy in a falling market. In 4 days of news being public, everyone but their grandma bought it, while insiders unloaded on them. However possible that Grayscale hasn't started buying yet. Shorting ETH could be a better option.
Alts Relative to BTC: Most altcoins posted gains on Sunday because Friday and Saturday were down, while BTC saw losses on Sunday. Alts corrected more sharply but rebounded earlier. SUI had the largest pump, up 53%, following the announcement that Grayscale is launching its trust along with TAO (Bittensor), which only rose by 20%. This raises questions: Will there be more demand for TAO, or was the demand already consumed by VCs unloading their TAO? Or is it due to TAO not being listed on Coinbase? Given that Coinbase is a custodian for nearly all ETFs, it’s puzzling why TAO isn’t available there.
Bull Case: Everyone expects a collapse, but bulls are holding onto their BTC, and selling pressure subsides. Altcoins have already compressed and eliminated most of their gains (except SOL) and are ready to rally. ETH: On the daily chart, we are halfway to the Bollinger Bands' moving average, suggesting it might trend further up.
Bear Case: The hype around crypto has faded, and BTC could collapse to 52k or 43.8k. Japan has raised interest rates, and the U.S. might enter a recession, potentially lowering rates. However, crypto isn't reacting because there may be no money available in the market. We could be at the peak of the last high point, with a correction looming as the recession begins.
Fear and Greed Index: 50.24, down for the second day in a row, away from the Greed territory.
Weekly Outlook (W): Last week formed a green star, indicating market indecision. The market could move sideways between 52.1k and 63.1k.
Daily Outlook (D): If the market continues to wobble, it may collide with the falling Bollinger Bands' moving average in 4 days.
4-Hour Outlook (4h): The last two candles formed stars, signaling market indecision, but a big move is likely coming, probably around 10 p.m. in the U.S. (6 hours from now). The price didn’t bounce from the lower Bollinger Band level but instead pushed it lower. We see a three black crows candle pattern, suggesting a trend reversal. However, there’s no divergence, and the RSI is in the middle rather than at the top.
1-Hour Outlook (1h): On Sunday morning, the price broke through the previous daily level of 60.2k, dropping by 3.2%, but stopped at another daily level of 58.2k.
Prediction: The price might return to 60.2k, but it will face strong resistance since that support has been lost. After that, expect a downward move. TAO might go higher as demand from Grayscale could still be a factor.
Opportunity: Consider buying TAO, but it’s extremely risky to buy in a falling market. In 4 days of news being public, everyone but their grandma bought it, while insiders unloaded on them. However possible that Grayscale hasn't started buying yet. Shorting ETH could be a better option.
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Follow for daily updates.
Get market overview and signals daily, straight into your inbox: evgcapital.substack.com
First 100 followers receive free market analysis and signals subscription.
Get market overview and signals daily, straight into your inbox: evgcapital.substack.com
First 100 followers receive free market analysis and signals subscription.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.