BitcoinUpdated Bitcoin Probably nearing a bottom
Hello friends! Welcome to this fantastic analysis on Bitcoin. I know you wanna get some insight as to the next move, so let's jump right in. Here in front of us is a 4 hour chart of bitcoin starting all the way from August 2017. A quick observation will show you that we have broken down the all important trend-line from August and now plummeting lower. But fear not, because hope is on the horizon!
I want to draw your attention to 3 things on this chart. First is that we are currently in a massive falling wedge spanning all the way from 23-02. We are currently heading to make a third touch of its bottom trend-line in the 6k-6.2k area.
Second is the trendline from 24-10-17 in blue. You can see that it is going to intersect the price action at approximately the 6.2k area, which interestingly is almost the same as the bottom of the wedge. Now this trendline is very important to watch as the price action above it will be forming a H&S pattern when touched. If broken, we might be going on a trip to BTC hell!
Third is the 100% retrace of the rally off the Feb 16th lows, which also falls into the same range as the two lines above.
Now these three lines seem to converge on the same area, the 6k - 6.2k area, thereby giving it a massive support role. I personally will be expecting a major bounce from this area, which will take us to the 10k area. But beware of a break of this apparently significant support, as this will be heavily negative for our dear bitcoin.
A fourth thing to watch is the recurring pattern on the OBV indicator. You can see that each time there is a sustained bearish divergence on it, a massive selloff followed. The selloff has already kicked off, but I predict we're nearing the end. I personally will be going long if we manage to bounce off the areas mentioned above.
Remember to do your own research before investing though. I started becoming successful as a trader when I stopped following other people's signals blindly.
Kindly smash that LIKE button if this idea makes sense to you.
Much love from Commodore!
I want to draw your attention to 3 things on this chart. First is that we are currently in a massive falling wedge spanning all the way from 23-02. We are currently heading to make a third touch of its bottom trend-line in the 6k-6.2k area.
Second is the trendline from 24-10-17 in blue. You can see that it is going to intersect the price action at approximately the 6.2k area, which interestingly is almost the same as the bottom of the wedge. Now this trendline is very important to watch as the price action above it will be forming a H&S pattern when touched. If broken, we might be going on a trip to BTC hell!
Third is the 100% retrace of the rally off the Feb 16th lows, which also falls into the same range as the two lines above.
Now these three lines seem to converge on the same area, the 6k - 6.2k area, thereby giving it a massive support role. I personally will be expecting a major bounce from this area, which will take us to the 10k area. But beware of a break of this apparently significant support, as this will be heavily negative for our dear bitcoin.
A fourth thing to watch is the recurring pattern on the OBV indicator. You can see that each time there is a sustained bearish divergence on it, a massive selloff followed. The selloff has already kicked off, but I predict we're nearing the end. I personally will be going long if we manage to bounce off the areas mentioned above.
Remember to do your own research before investing though. I started becoming successful as a trader when I stopped following other people's signals blindly.
Kindly smash that LIKE button if this idea makes sense to you.
Much love from Commodore!
Note
Don't get too excited about the current mini rally. You can see that it is on much lighter volume that the preceding dump and on a previous occasion, it was blocked by the bottom trend line of the falling wedge. Now it has both the bottom of the falling wedge and the blue uptrend line (which has now become resistance) to contend with. I will only become bullish when the bigger wedge gets broken to the upside. Till then, stay at alert with those longs if you have any!
Commodore!
Note
Once again I'll advise you not to get too excited about any rallies until the top of the large falling wedge is broken. Until then, we remain bearish on the king of cryptos!Note
I'm lowering my downside target to accommodate the current price action. I still expect a bounce on the bottom of the falling wedge, but it's now clear that the bounce will be achieved around the 5700 - 6000 area. I'm still short and don't have any intentions of closing just yet. Remember, you don't trade with a fixed mindset. Targets must be adjusted from time to time according to price action. Good luck traders!
Note
BTW, hope my new dark theme is sexy? :DNote
On y va! Time for our normal early Sunday dump =DTrade active
If you are going short here, make sure your liquidation level is higher than $7800, which is approximately the top of the wedge at the moment. I strongly believe the price will touch the bottom of the wedge for the third time before breaking it, but I have no crystal ball to tell you when.In summary, I've been in a short position since the smaller wedge got broken to the downside and I discovered the larger wedge. Stay safe my friends!
Note
Be careful with BTC longs. We are probably in a descending triangle abcde correction before we proceed to 5.8k
Trade closed: stop reached
If you're still short, please close the trade and keep an eye on the top of that wedge. 7300 was an important area to cross and we can see some serious pump going on. I'm not going long till we break the top of the wedge. That's the reason why I said "If you are going short here, make sure your liquidation level is higher than $7800"Stay safe my dear friends. More updates coming soon
Note
We still haven't crossed the top of the falling wedge. I just warned you guys so that you'll be careful. I personally don't have faith in this pump, as bitcoin doesn't have a history of incomplete wedges and the pump has very low volume. Half my shorts are still intact, but I'll close them completely and go long if we manage to break the top of that wedge. Stay on your toes buddies, this is trading, not a napping session. My bias remains heavy towards the downside as the whole scenario still looks overly bearish. Funny thing is that the more we accumulate in this minor correction, the more our downside target goes even lower as the bottom of the wedge keeps descending lower and lower. We may well see a huge selloff very very soon.
Once again, keep your eyes and ears peeled. I'll make a whole new analysis soon. Words from my heart to you.
Commodore
Note
I've moved the white arrow a bit to show you that the downside target keeps going lower
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Can someone remember when Commodore said "I don't trust this rally"? It's screwing some people up already! Really beautiful bull trap. Lol Note
Bear flag plus breakdown with convincing volume. Looking for the next fib at 6100 - 6000 areaNote
The long awaited update is here! I'm still heavily bearish on this coin, but I'm ready to switch to the bullish side whenever we get evidence that they're the winning team! And in that case, I'll be sure to update you guys. :D
Note
I'm very very sorry for late updates to my charts. I'm quitting my job soon, so you'll have a full dose of Commodore TA warrior. Stay tuned and expect very cool stuff in the coming weeks
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.