BTC holidays

Very interesting dip yesterday. When you zoom in, it looks like a monster crash, but when you zoom out, it doesn't look so bad. There are a lot of people saying it's the end of the bull market, but I'd like to give a little bit of perspective of where BTCUSD is now, and some amusing speculation of where it may go in the future. First and foremost, the green curve on the chart is the 100 DMA. We haven't even touched it yet, let alone pierced it. That alone tells us that we're still in a bull market, at least for now. Using log scale, you can draw a pretty clear centerline of exponential growth starting from the bottom of the covid crash in March 2020 (white dashed line). If we create an exponential channel bounds from this centerline, it looks like the bottom of the dip is simultaneously retesting 1. the bottom of an exponential channel (white), 2. A separate exponential trendline support line originating near the start of the bull run at 10k (yellow), and 3. Nearly the 100 DMA. There were many instances in the 2017 bull run of BTC piercing through the 100 DMA with a subsequent V-shaped recovery. If we do dip further, then it's possible the price could drop briefly into the cyan box between $42k and $45k. If BTC stays inside the exponential channel, we can look at where the price may end up in the future. I've plotted some interesting price points and dates coincident with American holidays, more-so for speculative amusement than serious technical analysis:

Independence Day, July 4: $150k
Patriot Day, Sept 11: $250k
Thanksgiving, Nov 25: $420k

Happy trading!

Note

Justification for using Thanksgiving $420k as the final holiday on the list:

Note

Worth noting that BTC significantly pierced the 200 DMA, and this event did not occur during the 2017 bull run until *after* the top was in and the 2018 bear market started. Just data to keep in mind for the future.

swilton

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swilton