It’s the hard block life
Updated
It’s the hard block life for us.
It’s the hard block life for us!
‘Stead of breakouts,
We get bricked!
‘Stead of growing,
We get grift!
It’s the hard block life!
It has been a tough week for crypto, so I have been meditating upon my 3D-Printed Shiba Inu Statue and this revelation of a 3-year exit plan came to me. It will provide me a reminder of the common sentiment and signs throughout the next cycle to watch out for if things repeat themselves yet again.
I believe the only real value that bitcoin has provided to the world is the halving events. If bitcoin never had halvings then no one would’ve ever cared about it. At the end of the day, all humanity wants is a good ol’ Ponzi Scheme.
But bitcoin is no Ponzi Scheme, no, it’s the greatest Ponzi of them all. Because it has a guidebook on how to actually make money from it embedded into it. The pattern has been very simple every time, buy before the halving, sell about a year after. But if it’s so easy though, then why do people loose money?
Well, the greatest challenge is falling into the trap that bitcoin will actually change this world for the better and revolutionize currency and end tyranny and money printing and inflation and taxes and government corruption! Lawl naw.
None of that really matters to people. All anyone ever wants is growth and liquidity. A good example is why would a worthless dilution coin like doge get a huge pump like it did the past couple years? It's simple. The new gen missed out on those big bitcoin gains and wanted a pump of their own, so pick the most meme-able small cap crap and you will be good to go.
So, let’s look forward to the next halving event to attract a new generation of higher fools, to then sell the top to because that’s what this world’s designed for! Maybe we’ll even get a new worthless coin to ride?
***
I have a feeling though that this next potential top in bitcoin could be it’s last. Crypto is continuously running out of higher fools with it’s increasing market cap, the only fools left with the large enough capital to put a dent in the price are corporations and governments. I know there’s no shortage of incompetence going around in government, so that gives us lots of hope. Imagine the irony that the governments are the ones to buy the top as everyone else dumps on them?
I also have a crackpot chart below to back up this feeling too. I don’t know what the reason for its downfall will be, maybe a great new tech superior to crypto itself comes out and everyone dumps to flock to that, or maybe our governments from a global totalitarian coalition and ban use of all crypto apart from their own FED sponsored “regulated” Inflation Coin, or it could just go stagnant and sit at the higher prices for eternity with the halving events being the only thing to sustain its value.
Many people are also thinking that crypto is bottomed now after that dump and it is smooth sailing from here, but I have my doubts. I think we could eventually see a small rally and get to May prices, but not likely to see new highs until the halving. This area seems to be a good accumulation area though, but I won’t be surprised if bitcoin can hit 12-13k, I’ll even sell my exclusive 3D-Pinted Shiba Inu Statue on opensea to buy more bitcoin if it hits those prices.
I’m also glad I didn’t fall for that crypto “breakout” that dumped after the latest crypto ponzi scheme bust. I always had a feeling it was a phony breakout because doge seemed to be the thing fueling the rise in crypto, and as they say, “A rocket can’t be fueled by a dumpster fire.” I was curious though where the circus got all that liquidity for doge to rally so well.
Anyways, the recent flat consolidation reminded me of 2018 and the big dump following it. I was wondering if it would continue dumping to 12k area with this pennant pattern and then watch for a nice cup-like pattern to form:
It is great that everyone hates crypto again. Historically when crypto ponzi scams tank the price, it usually has been a good time to buy hard. I’m just waiting a tad longer just to see if anyone else goes bust as margin calls and bank runs tend to have a waterfall effect.
Finally, the Crackpot Chart
Fib Spiral
Now with this hocus pocus, you can see the fib spiral curiously acting as resistance all throughout bitcoin’s existence. Now we are nearing the peak of the upside of the spiral. Does this mean bitcoin will fall with the spiral? Only time will tell. Something I will be watching years from now though.
Breakout Blocks
I don’t know what to call these but they’re the purple blocks that show the previous high and end when the chart breaks above that. One worry for bitcoin is its starting to break down below the latest and thinnest purple box. This has never happened before! This shows me that the structure of bitcoin is slowly crumbling.
The boxes are getting thinner and thinner too, obviously showing less and less returns as time goes. Which means less and less interest from the hopeful gamblers!
Rising Wedges
Bitcoin likes to make a rising wedge and then break down out of that rising wedge to form a new, less steep one. We can now see that bitcoin has broken out of the yellow rising wedge and I predict it will follow something like the green one. I don’t expect it to ever cross back into the yellow wedge again if it continues this pattern.
Stoch Triangles
Next, we see the triangle patterns on the stoch that I highlighted. These are very cool and show clear moments of breakouts and breakdowns. What’s amazing is its reliability and how frequently bitcoin has done this. I’ve also seen these patterns in other stocks and when I ignored them, I sorely regretted it. IMHO it is the most reliable and powerful indicator pattern I know of for bitcoin. And it is nearing a breakout very soon, so keep an eye on that too.
TLDR: Just buy before the halving, sell a year later. Don’t believe in anything or trust anyone, especially these kinds.
It’s the hard block life for us!
‘Stead of breakouts,
We get bricked!
‘Stead of growing,
We get grift!
It’s the hard block life!
It has been a tough week for crypto, so I have been meditating upon my 3D-Printed Shiba Inu Statue and this revelation of a 3-year exit plan came to me. It will provide me a reminder of the common sentiment and signs throughout the next cycle to watch out for if things repeat themselves yet again.
I believe the only real value that bitcoin has provided to the world is the halving events. If bitcoin never had halvings then no one would’ve ever cared about it. At the end of the day, all humanity wants is a good ol’ Ponzi Scheme.
But bitcoin is no Ponzi Scheme, no, it’s the greatest Ponzi of them all. Because it has a guidebook on how to actually make money from it embedded into it. The pattern has been very simple every time, buy before the halving, sell about a year after. But if it’s so easy though, then why do people loose money?
Well, the greatest challenge is falling into the trap that bitcoin will actually change this world for the better and revolutionize currency and end tyranny and money printing and inflation and taxes and government corruption! Lawl naw.
None of that really matters to people. All anyone ever wants is growth and liquidity. A good example is why would a worthless dilution coin like doge get a huge pump like it did the past couple years? It's simple. The new gen missed out on those big bitcoin gains and wanted a pump of their own, so pick the most meme-able small cap crap and you will be good to go.
So, let’s look forward to the next halving event to attract a new generation of higher fools, to then sell the top to because that’s what this world’s designed for! Maybe we’ll even get a new worthless coin to ride?
***
I have a feeling though that this next potential top in bitcoin could be it’s last. Crypto is continuously running out of higher fools with it’s increasing market cap, the only fools left with the large enough capital to put a dent in the price are corporations and governments. I know there’s no shortage of incompetence going around in government, so that gives us lots of hope. Imagine the irony that the governments are the ones to buy the top as everyone else dumps on them?
I also have a crackpot chart below to back up this feeling too. I don’t know what the reason for its downfall will be, maybe a great new tech superior to crypto itself comes out and everyone dumps to flock to that, or maybe our governments from a global totalitarian coalition and ban use of all crypto apart from their own FED sponsored “regulated” Inflation Coin, or it could just go stagnant and sit at the higher prices for eternity with the halving events being the only thing to sustain its value.
Many people are also thinking that crypto is bottomed now after that dump and it is smooth sailing from here, but I have my doubts. I think we could eventually see a small rally and get to May prices, but not likely to see new highs until the halving. This area seems to be a good accumulation area though, but I won’t be surprised if bitcoin can hit 12-13k, I’ll even sell my exclusive 3D-Pinted Shiba Inu Statue on opensea to buy more bitcoin if it hits those prices.
I’m also glad I didn’t fall for that crypto “breakout” that dumped after the latest crypto ponzi scheme bust. I always had a feeling it was a phony breakout because doge seemed to be the thing fueling the rise in crypto, and as they say, “A rocket can’t be fueled by a dumpster fire.” I was curious though where the circus got all that liquidity for doge to rally so well.
Anyways, the recent flat consolidation reminded me of 2018 and the big dump following it. I was wondering if it would continue dumping to 12k area with this pennant pattern and then watch for a nice cup-like pattern to form:
It is great that everyone hates crypto again. Historically when crypto ponzi scams tank the price, it usually has been a good time to buy hard. I’m just waiting a tad longer just to see if anyone else goes bust as margin calls and bank runs tend to have a waterfall effect.
Finally, the Crackpot Chart
Fib Spiral
Now with this hocus pocus, you can see the fib spiral curiously acting as resistance all throughout bitcoin’s existence. Now we are nearing the peak of the upside of the spiral. Does this mean bitcoin will fall with the spiral? Only time will tell. Something I will be watching years from now though.
Breakout Blocks
I don’t know what to call these but they’re the purple blocks that show the previous high and end when the chart breaks above that. One worry for bitcoin is its starting to break down below the latest and thinnest purple box. This has never happened before! This shows me that the structure of bitcoin is slowly crumbling.
The boxes are getting thinner and thinner too, obviously showing less and less returns as time goes. Which means less and less interest from the hopeful gamblers!
Rising Wedges
Bitcoin likes to make a rising wedge and then break down out of that rising wedge to form a new, less steep one. We can now see that bitcoin has broken out of the yellow rising wedge and I predict it will follow something like the green one. I don’t expect it to ever cross back into the yellow wedge again if it continues this pattern.
Stoch Triangles
Next, we see the triangle patterns on the stoch that I highlighted. These are very cool and show clear moments of breakouts and breakdowns. What’s amazing is its reliability and how frequently bitcoin has done this. I’ve also seen these patterns in other stocks and when I ignored them, I sorely regretted it. IMHO it is the most reliable and powerful indicator pattern I know of for bitcoin. And it is nearing a breakout very soon, so keep an eye on that too.
TLDR: Just buy before the halving, sell a year later. Don’t believe in anything or trust anyone, especially these kinds.
Note
It's the long weekend, so I thought I would take a look at our favorite Ponzicurrencies and see how they are doing.Let’s start with the multiplier chart:
Overall, I believe crypto is at it’s intermediate top already and will pull back from here, maybe making a double bottom near the end of the year. There is a possibility of a breakout but I’m not going to hold my breath, crypto previously has never made new highs until the next halfling. However, this doesn’t mean crypto has to make new lows now, the lows at 15K may very well be the ultimate low in this cycle (unless the market takes a complete dump, then anything is possible).
Now for ol’ bitty:
Bitcoin didn't hit 12k as I wanted but instead broke out early. My stoch triangle rule was a key signal here to tell that the breakout this time is for real. You can see that the stoch breakout coincides with the breakout of the green line in a way quite similar to the last cycles.
I marked the spots where similar events happened with the yellow vertical lines. My interest now is what follows. Will it be an extended move like in 2019 or will it first dump again to 15k and then start a rally like in 2015? To me bitcoin is already starting to look weaker and I’m overall expecting a market pullback so I believe a dump first is more likely than an extended rally.
The most optimistic target for a continued rally is 36K but my next well crafted chart shows some very serious issues with bitcoin getting there and lots of resistance at 28-30K.
As you can see, to the right of the clown, the most critical level to breakout is 25K and if that happens 28-30K would be the next resistance. I don’t believe that bitcoin can go much farther than that for now though, and even getting bullish here is dangerous with that wedge forming. As long as bitcoin can remain above 21K, it has potential to remain in a bullish mode. If it breaks 21K, well, watch out below.
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