Any crashing market usually goes to far lower price level than fundamental value is - this where big ones come in. We are not there yet, bottom is far lower than we are now.
The problem is that there is no fundamental value, market is full of tokens which are years away from real utility. Nobody uses bitcoin either. It will take years to justify these price levels with anything else than hope and 99% will never make it in the long run. (Take ADA, not a one use case jet, what difference does it make if they can make 15k transaction per minute?
I read through 200 top white papers, half of them have no need for blockchains. The good ones copy each other and fight to be "the platform", which 1-2 actually will be, but which ones? Rest is complete BS (or a niche that is going to be eaten up), there's no way anyone can even come out with valuation method for them. It's also easy to see that they have been deliberately created with "token economics" to decrease the velocity and draw down supply. Self generating demand out of nothing. (And to be honest, many of the white papers are just a BS bingo and several of them I did not understand at all. I'm just saying, some of them look like they are really serious because they are written in a complicated manner).
Also the market sentiment is technically not right for bottom. Bottoms are long and desperate, we have not see this yet. We need anger, then indifference. We need articles of "stupid" crypto investments and economists saying that cryptos are no more life changing than fax machines. We need empty ICO calendars. That is the bottom to buy if you still have money left and buy something that actually works. Not Time Bank coin or whatnot. Buy Amazon, not pets.com. This is first real cycle, there's no point of comparing it to 2013-2014. 2017 is one big and stupid upward hype move and it will come down, because one by one people understand that it's never going to happen again.
There is also abundance of coins and tokens. It's money printing daily. Who cares that there is limited number of bitcoins if you can make 10 000 new coins? So where is this demand going to come, that's gonna buy up this market? Even this small real demand (not BITMEX 100X trading volume) now flows to btc and eth and then to ICO-s and then back to fiat as soon as possible. And then evaporates in the no-businessplan startups which just find no motivation to do anything since they already have made a killing with the ICO.
Goldman Sachs and Soros - they are teams of pro traders with decades of experience in forex. They will not invest, they are here to trade crowd's bitcoins to their pockets. And what manipulations, what mystic "whales"? These spikes are the oldest tricks in book, thats how you take larger positions.
And "whales" :) Would you actually start selling bitcoin if its price, lets say, raises to 1m usd/btc? And you have just made a accidental, once in a lifetime, right decision, and become rich? I bet you would sell and by some real estate and you wouldn't care if bitcoin becomes a new world currency. You wouldn't bet your good life for cryptos. You would buy real gold and land instead, and thank God it happened. And thats what the whales have been doing. Because they do not want to go back to being poor.
Yes, 0,786 re-tracement. Yes, long term trend line support. Yes, start of the third wave of the third wave. What to You think - would any pro trader know this with 1 minute look to the charts? Do they know where the stops are going to be week from now when they push the price down with an ease? Just look at the short/long graph - it's a margin buying on a low volume and it will be taken out in a week.
There's got to be some catalyst to turn the big tide. I have no problem to start buying and adding leverage of BTC (slowly) if it really starts making upward impulses and breaking some real resistances. So far - zero of that. Barely hanging on.
I shorted.
The problem is that there is no fundamental value, market is full of tokens which are years away from real utility. Nobody uses bitcoin either. It will take years to justify these price levels with anything else than hope and 99% will never make it in the long run. (Take ADA, not a one use case jet, what difference does it make if they can make 15k transaction per minute?
I read through 200 top white papers, half of them have no need for blockchains. The good ones copy each other and fight to be "the platform", which 1-2 actually will be, but which ones? Rest is complete BS (or a niche that is going to be eaten up), there's no way anyone can even come out with valuation method for them. It's also easy to see that they have been deliberately created with "token economics" to decrease the velocity and draw down supply. Self generating demand out of nothing. (And to be honest, many of the white papers are just a BS bingo and several of them I did not understand at all. I'm just saying, some of them look like they are really serious because they are written in a complicated manner).
Also the market sentiment is technically not right for bottom. Bottoms are long and desperate, we have not see this yet. We need anger, then indifference. We need articles of "stupid" crypto investments and economists saying that cryptos are no more life changing than fax machines. We need empty ICO calendars. That is the bottom to buy if you still have money left and buy something that actually works. Not Time Bank coin or whatnot. Buy Amazon, not pets.com. This is first real cycle, there's no point of comparing it to 2013-2014. 2017 is one big and stupid upward hype move and it will come down, because one by one people understand that it's never going to happen again.
There is also abundance of coins and tokens. It's money printing daily. Who cares that there is limited number of bitcoins if you can make 10 000 new coins? So where is this demand going to come, that's gonna buy up this market? Even this small real demand (not BITMEX 100X trading volume) now flows to btc and eth and then to ICO-s and then back to fiat as soon as possible. And then evaporates in the no-businessplan startups which just find no motivation to do anything since they already have made a killing with the ICO.
Goldman Sachs and Soros - they are teams of pro traders with decades of experience in forex. They will not invest, they are here to trade crowd's bitcoins to their pockets. And what manipulations, what mystic "whales"? These spikes are the oldest tricks in book, thats how you take larger positions.
And "whales" :) Would you actually start selling bitcoin if its price, lets say, raises to 1m usd/btc? And you have just made a accidental, once in a lifetime, right decision, and become rich? I bet you would sell and by some real estate and you wouldn't care if bitcoin becomes a new world currency. You wouldn't bet your good life for cryptos. You would buy real gold and land instead, and thank God it happened. And thats what the whales have been doing. Because they do not want to go back to being poor.
Yes, 0,786 re-tracement. Yes, long term trend line support. Yes, start of the third wave of the third wave. What to You think - would any pro trader know this with 1 minute look to the charts? Do they know where the stops are going to be week from now when they push the price down with an ease? Just look at the short/long graph - it's a margin buying on a low volume and it will be taken out in a week.
There's got to be some catalyst to turn the big tide. I have no problem to start buying and adding leverage of BTC (slowly) if it really starts making upward impulses and breaking some real resistances. So far - zero of that. Barely hanging on.
I shorted.
Note
..all sameNote
..all sameNote
1) Bitcoin dominance will increase to 90% since altcoins do not carry much value and of all crypto usage 87% is Bitcoin2) Bitcoin has that much value since it's it's more stable and people exchange alt to bitcoin
3) ICO-s are selling their ETH and cashing to FIAT (or to Bitcoin if they can't find a bank which accepts their money)
Before market recovery we need a following:
- some new and more sustainable mining
- some altcoins that have an actual working economics, higher quality ICO-s
- regulation and exchanges that allow securities
- companies, not platforms (we have tons of those but few are making real-life usable applications - it's all like an app free iPhone today.)
- Technically - market needs long bottoming out, stable pricing for bitcoin for 6-12 months (while a real market acceptance can take place)
That's it. Until then there is no money that will buy this market up in a sustainable way. The best strategy is to wait.
Note
Next wave will be:- corporate ICO-s that are creating a new breed of financial instruments upon existing and working business model (ex.Maesk+IBM, Amazon, Alibaba)
- this includes blockchain based tech that enables to create something that is a mixture of equity, debt, crowdfunding, rights, data, money, derivatives, insurance and who knows what - possibilities are endless
- this will boost existing platforms (like ADA which sounds a great project but which has not yet produced one use case)
- I personally believe that existing market leaders (ETH) will not be the ones that are leading the way
- national currencies will mutate to blockchain based currencies since it will enable better (new) taxation models and overview
It will take years, not months. However, I believe that it will happen. Internet took years to happen, this will take longer. Internet was quite easy to comprehend compared to blockchain tech, and it was usable for businesses and population
This realization has not yet sunk in, but it will over the next 12 months.
So, buy when things calm down and buy tokens that have real demand. There will surely be next cycle up.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.