BitcoinShort
BTC back to 43K
Updated
BTC has been rolling over. Was confused by the rip last weekend, but has lost steam and the rollover continues. The April 25 low broke the March 25ish low, changing the trend from up / neutral, to down (use the daily). I will admit we need a drop to confirm, but this can start slowly. I am seeing the panic to hold up the Alts (nice move trying to rip the shorts in ADA, XRP, and others). IMHO we are past that...when BTC falls...EVERYTHING falls.
Just like 2018, the Alts were the last to pop. Back then you had to go into BTC (holding it up...but ultimately adding to the losses for traders trying to leave). Today they can exit to USD...instantly.
There is no ALWAYS and no NEVER, so use stop-losses and expect market trickery, but here is how this will go...
1. ADA (others like XRP as well) will back and fill until it breaks 1.58. Will accelerate once it goes through 1.54. Pit-stops at 1.48 and 1.43 possibly...blah blah blah...will give back 50% of its run off the .09 low. I will stay short until 1.00ish..moving my stop down (just not smart enough to know where to sell).
2. ETH likely to hold up a little, then add fuel to the fire (as shorts close in one and go to the other).
3. Lastly,t eh meme will stay as a meme (read joke)...DOGE will go back to the dog house (.09).
I worked in tech for 25 years and Blockchain will, most likely, be the next architecture...in 20 years. Valuing "ideas" that aren't complete at 50 trillion is pure madness...even when we have a clueless western democracy like the US. MMT...what a joke. Valuing a joke coin as number 4 market cap is beind stupid. It brings NOTHING to the BC space in terms of IP, hardware, services, innovation, etc.
But then again...within 5 minutes of me hitting the send, the Gods of BTC could come roaring in with bags of buy-side cash...
Just like 2018, the Alts were the last to pop. Back then you had to go into BTC (holding it up...but ultimately adding to the losses for traders trying to leave). Today they can exit to USD...instantly.
There is no ALWAYS and no NEVER, so use stop-losses and expect market trickery, but here is how this will go...
1. ADA (others like XRP as well) will back and fill until it breaks 1.58. Will accelerate once it goes through 1.54. Pit-stops at 1.48 and 1.43 possibly...blah blah blah...will give back 50% of its run off the .09 low. I will stay short until 1.00ish..moving my stop down (just not smart enough to know where to sell).
2. ETH likely to hold up a little, then add fuel to the fire (as shorts close in one and go to the other).
3. Lastly,t eh meme will stay as a meme (read joke)...DOGE will go back to the dog house (.09).
I worked in tech for 25 years and Blockchain will, most likely, be the next architecture...in 20 years. Valuing "ideas" that aren't complete at 50 trillion is pure madness...even when we have a clueless western democracy like the US. MMT...what a joke. Valuing a joke coin as number 4 market cap is beind stupid. It brings NOTHING to the BC space in terms of IP, hardware, services, innovation, etc.
But then again...within 5 minutes of me hitting the send, the Gods of BTC could come roaring in with bags of buy-side cash...
Note
Honestly...1. I am a tech guy. Love these ideas (BTC, ETH, ADA, EOS...).
2. BC combines several ideas which have been around before, but are very smart (distributed comp, cryptography, etc.).
BUT - this valuation (ETH, ADA, others) is absurd. At some point fundamentals matter (meaning it can stay or even go a bit higher).
1. Not a single app i use nor one ANY of my friends use (yet...Defi is clunky and DEX will piss off govs)
2. Currency too volatile (even using DAI)
3. Valuation exceeds most companies in the US (by marketcap - see ORCL below)
ADDITIONALLY - current climate
1. DOGE coin...really?
2. ETC...this is like trying to sell old disc copies of MSFT Word now ($10 -$125 in a week...LMAO, suckers buying)
3. Elon Musk pump and dump
4. Western govs JAMMING USD into the world because they don't want to face a slowing economy and need asset inflation to pay taxes (STUPID AND RISKY)
***the ONLY hope for a valuation like this is hyperinflation - NOT ruling taht out though
SORRY...but we are back in a bubble. Not debating that BC is the future...DEFINITELY debating that the future is now. 10+ years away (see below) and we are paying 20 years from now prices.
- BTC - public-facing 8 column XLS
- ETH - public-facing 30 column XLS with macros (DAPS)
- ADA - looking to "port" many ideas away from EOS, ETH...worth 50+ B? GTFO
Sorry, that is just silly
I work in and deploy legit ERP applications. The simplest table is 150 columns and there are over 10K of them. Data storage, manipulation, transmission, etc...BC is 20 years away from being ready for serious apps that can run on gas.
LOVE the idea, MIGHT be the next (post-multi-tennant) architecture...but WON'T BE in my lifetime and I am 50.
Lastly, ORACLE builds EBS, PeopleSoft, Cloud and many more...its valuation for apps that work and get cash is 231 B...there is ZERO way ADA/ETH/EOS/XLM...goes anywhere close. Sell now and be damn happy (I am shorting).
TO BE FAIR...if you are the architecture, you will print money, but we are so far away and who knows if ETH, ADA, etc. will be around (Compaq, DEX, Gateway, so many failures...CMGI, Copper Mountain...)
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