Updated

Refreshing my long term trend chart

It was about time to refresh this one, dating back 2019 / 2020.

Still valid so far, close to green support.
I'm wondering about the outcome.

Previous iterations:

2020

2019

Where we are now and what they didn't tell you about the halving

Note

CMF - 2W
pretty close to 2015,2018 bottom.

Willy - 2W
Pretty close to oversold, but not quite there.

NVT - W
Close to "landing" zone.

Hash Ribbons
Final capitulation ahead or not ? Let's decide ;)

All the above seems to suggest that either price will have a final move down soon, followed by a strong bounce, or a bounce with happen soon, with a further low being painted within the weeks after that (if so there's a chance of a higher low or double bottom).

Keep an eye on hash ribbons.
Trend reversal usually needs to go through miners capitulation.

Note

Miners capitulation started.

Note

NVT entering the support area.

Willy nearing oversold

CMF almost, but not quite there ...

All in all good R:R ratio for filling bids on weakness, especially in alts.
imho.

Note

Longer term let's look at TD count on MONTHLY.

Usually 5th red candle sets bottom.
We have a decent 6th (may) and we're sitting on log support.

From here it's either confirm history, or write a new history.

Note

So let's see june close.

Note

Weekly finally getting oversold.

Note

Here we go on CMF as well:

Make it or break it (mind it's 2W).

Note

CMF (W)

Note

Finally NVT(W) intraweek infraction:

Note

Dominance: the trap and the movement down towards support (43ish):

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