Updated

[Watch it] A word of caution: couple tricky months ahead.

Bitcoin failed the march bounce. Now moving sideways within the lower part of its (blue) ascending channel.

This is a tricky and undecisive area.

Bears stay in control unless 43k is recovered and MA20W and MA50W can be taken out (see the red rectangle).
The latter option would decidedly change the odds in favor of bulls, but let's face the actual scenario.

Many indicators hint a decent probability of a further move down, whose strength has to be carefully evaluated.
Hash Ribbons, for instance, is at risk of stalling:

So let's do some preliminary risk shaping considerations.
Bulls cannot afford losing much ground from here: a move down into the 37,5-36,5k area, if confirmed on W close, would raise some red flags.
It would likely ignite intra-week volatility and may prelude to a further test of MA100W and lower bound of the (blue) channel (35-36k - see the blue rectangle).

If so the latter would act a last-stand, decisive area: unless a decisive bounce may be achieved (at worst) from there leveraging a divergence on RSI, a capitulation down to the high 20k range (flashcrash) may loom.
With possible later formation of a diamond or a confirmation of the (purple) falling wedge - it's soon to say.

Hence i'd closely watch upcoming price action and i would prepare and take proper measures, in case of further weakness.

All the above be re-evaluated after hit of either support (blue rectange) or resistance (red rectangle) area.

Note

Down as expected.
38,2k low still on the safe side.
Diamond possibly in formation:

Note

37,7k. Heating up.

I'd say the diamond option may hold up to support (around 37k).
Any lower it may start breaking things.

Pretty interesting.

Note

SAR did hold.

Note

Hash ribbons rising.

WATCH that diamond.

Note

Seemingly ready for a bounce.

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Pretty close to Long term CMF support:

We may assist to a third test in 7 years.

Note

Let's see whether it's a diamond.

MInd the falling wedge as well.

Note

If those patterns hold we may get a pretty strong bounce.
If they fail back to the original plan (checking 37,5-36,5k).

Trade active

Long a lot at 38532 $.
Stop placed, autopilot on.

Let's see.

Note

Third test inbound. Brace.

Note

Dominance at resistance again.

I'd say this time it may go through.
Anyway, it would mean high volatility, especially on alts.

Note

Well, let's see:

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Now bulls should try to achieve this:

In order to avoid or at least pospone a capitulation.
Hence watch 37k, as any furter weakness would be dangerous.

Note

Well the diamond option is likely gone.
Yet the falling wedge still holds.

Note

Meanwhile test of dominance still ongoing:

Trade closed: stop reached

Just got back, only to see price already within the blue zone.

Stop gone already.
Watching out for possible opportinities close to support.

Note

Pretty similar:

Not sure it would be as severe though.

Note

Anyway, it's a good opportunity to buy some more coins.
Provided caution is used.

I'd say look at MA20/W along next weeks:

It may require some time, but once it flattens the worst will be likely behind.
Obviously, in order to flatten, price needs to pierce it up.

So watch it.

Note

Meanwhile on CMF/W ...

Support still not broken for now.

Note

Here we go, test of main support.

Note

Broken support, broken channel, broken inner wedge.

Very ugly, capitulation ongoing.
Major wedge still holds.

Note

MF is under historical support, which is a 2 faced issue:

1) it means market is very weak (as usual in capitulation)
2) it means market is goin pretty unbalanced on the sell side. Which can't last for long.

Hence i started already accumulating come coins on this weakess, by letting price fill my bids.

Note

Current picture:

Note

Not even reached mid may and sub 30k already reached tonight.
Hence OP already found confirmation, sadly.

Looking forward to the bounce, but expecting further choppy action in the meantime.

Trade closed: target reached

So here we are, less than 3 weeks later, with a capitulation unfolding:

Price already in the high 20s and testing the lower limit of the wedge painted in the opening post.

What's surprising is nothing surprising happed along the way.

No serious bounces and no hiccups.
That's a bit concerning given so relatively close MA200/W floor is today.

Anyway, this analysis reached its target already.
Time for some interim action (looking for a bounce, in this case) before moving onto next chapter.

Trade closed: target reached

So here we are, less than 3 weeks later, with a capitulation unfolding:

Price already in the high 20s and now testing the lower limit of the wedge painted in the opening post. Tricky action.

What's surprising is nothing surprising happened along the way down.
No serious bounces, no hiccups.
That's a bit concerning given so close MA200/W is today.

Anyway, this analysis reached its target already.
Time for some interim action (looking for a bounce, in this case) before moving onto next chapter.

Note

Next chapter:

Capitolation ongoing. Likely bear trap unfolding. Buy the dip.

f-73

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A pretty close call. With a subtle overall Long bias.

by f-73

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