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INTRO
The study presented here divides Bitcoin cycles into separate phases, then measures the duration of each cycle, as well as of each individual phase and some of their combinations. It is then demonstrated when a possible top of the current cycle is likely to happen. A possible price of the cycle top is also shown, but the focus here is more on guessing the WHEN rather than the price.
OVERVIEW
Each cycle is divided into following phases:
On the chart blue rectangles show Bitcoin cycles. Blue vertical lines mark a start or an end of a cycle. Red lines correspond to cycle bottoms. Yellow lines are halvings. Green lines are ATH breakouts.
Dashed lines are used for possible dates of future events.
Four rows of date ranges at the bottom of the chart measure the time. The first row measures the length of each cycle phase. The second and third rows show how much time it took to get from bottom to ATH breakout and from bottom to top respectively. The forth row shows full cycle lengths.
Red and green arrows measure the corrections and returns of each cycle.
The chart also shows Fibonacci retracements for each cycle.
COMPARING THE CYCLES
The first cycle was very short and not like the others.
The second and third cycles were longer lasting 49 and 47 months respectively. They were also very similar to each other with each phase lasting approximately the same amount of time. It took around a year to reach the bottom, then 17-18 months until the halving, after that 9 and 7 months to make a new ATH, and finally 8 and 11 months to reach the top. It took 27 and 24 months respectively from bottom to new ATH, 17 and 18 months respectively from halving to top, and it took 35 months exactly in both cycles from bottom to top.
The current cycle is so far very similar to the previous two. 12 months to reach the bottom, 17 months until the halving. Note that although Bitcoin's price penetrated the previous ATH multiple times since March, we don't count it as a breakout since the price failed to rally higher.
TRYING TO FORECAST THE FUTURE
First of all, nobody can predict the future. Bitcoin cycles won't last forever and this cycle can pretty much be the last one and anything unexpected can happen any time. It's always important to be ready for the worst outcome and manage your risks accordingly.
But let's assume that the remaining part of this cycle will also be similar to the past cycles, so can we forecast when the cycle is going to end?
If we look at the chart, we can see that all previous cycles ended in November-December. Taking into consideration all other data we've discussed, the top can be projected to occur on November-December 2025. November gives us a bit better numbers closer to the data of the two previous cycles: 48 months total cycle duration, 36 months from the bottom to top and 19 months from the halving to top.
We also have one known date in the future: the next halving, which is going to occur somewhere around March-April 2028. We can also forecast the approximate date of the next cycle bottom (if we are somehow lucky enough to have another cycle!) by placing it on November 2026 one year after the current cycle and 16 months before the next halving.
Now, what about the dashed green line on the chart, the date when we're are finally going to have the ATH breakout? In the previous cycle we had 7 months between the halving and ATH breakout and also 24 months from the bottom to ATH breakout. If we take that data, it would give us November this year. But in the second cycle it took a bit longer: 27 months to reach the breakout (from the bottom). That would give us February 2025. So the breakout is likely to happen somewhere between November and February.
WHAT ABOUT THE PRICE?
As I said above, this idea is more focused on timing the top rather than the price so I'll keep this short. In the first two cycles, Bitcoin topped out at around 2.36 fib level, while in the previous cycle it failed to reach 2.36 and stopped at 1.618. If it reaches 1.618 this cycle, that would be around 174K. May also be lower, but any higher level is very unlikely.
CONCLUSION
Bitcoin jumped from around 25K to almost 74K in a short period of time and many people became very greedy and impatient. After that it got stuck in a sideways movement for months. Everyone are frustrated and can't wait for the bull run to finally continue. Some are starting to doubt and afraid that the top may be in. But the data shows that everything is going according to schedule. Bitcoin is stuck because it was too early to have a cycle top. More patience is needed.
Thank you for reading and I hope you will find this information useful!
INTRO
The study presented here divides Bitcoin cycles into separate phases, then measures the duration of each cycle, as well as of each individual phase and some of their combinations. It is then demonstrated when a possible top of the current cycle is likely to happen. A possible price of the cycle top is also shown, but the focus here is more on guessing the WHEN rather than the price.
OVERVIEW
Each cycle is divided into following phases:
- Previous ATH to bottom.
- Bottom to halving.
- Halving to ATH breakout.
- ATH breakout to top.
On the chart blue rectangles show Bitcoin cycles. Blue vertical lines mark a start or an end of a cycle. Red lines correspond to cycle bottoms. Yellow lines are halvings. Green lines are ATH breakouts.
Dashed lines are used for possible dates of future events.
Four rows of date ranges at the bottom of the chart measure the time. The first row measures the length of each cycle phase. The second and third rows show how much time it took to get from bottom to ATH breakout and from bottom to top respectively. The forth row shows full cycle lengths.
Red and green arrows measure the corrections and returns of each cycle.
The chart also shows Fibonacci retracements for each cycle.
COMPARING THE CYCLES
The first cycle was very short and not like the others.
The second and third cycles were longer lasting 49 and 47 months respectively. They were also very similar to each other with each phase lasting approximately the same amount of time. It took around a year to reach the bottom, then 17-18 months until the halving, after that 9 and 7 months to make a new ATH, and finally 8 and 11 months to reach the top. It took 27 and 24 months respectively from bottom to new ATH, 17 and 18 months respectively from halving to top, and it took 35 months exactly in both cycles from bottom to top.
The current cycle is so far very similar to the previous two. 12 months to reach the bottom, 17 months until the halving. Note that although Bitcoin's price penetrated the previous ATH multiple times since March, we don't count it as a breakout since the price failed to rally higher.
TRYING TO FORECAST THE FUTURE
First of all, nobody can predict the future. Bitcoin cycles won't last forever and this cycle can pretty much be the last one and anything unexpected can happen any time. It's always important to be ready for the worst outcome and manage your risks accordingly.
But let's assume that the remaining part of this cycle will also be similar to the past cycles, so can we forecast when the cycle is going to end?
If we look at the chart, we can see that all previous cycles ended in November-December. Taking into consideration all other data we've discussed, the top can be projected to occur on November-December 2025. November gives us a bit better numbers closer to the data of the two previous cycles: 48 months total cycle duration, 36 months from the bottom to top and 19 months from the halving to top.
We also have one known date in the future: the next halving, which is going to occur somewhere around March-April 2028. We can also forecast the approximate date of the next cycle bottom (if we are somehow lucky enough to have another cycle!) by placing it on November 2026 one year after the current cycle and 16 months before the next halving.
Now, what about the dashed green line on the chart, the date when we're are finally going to have the ATH breakout? In the previous cycle we had 7 months between the halving and ATH breakout and also 24 months from the bottom to ATH breakout. If we take that data, it would give us November this year. But in the second cycle it took a bit longer: 27 months to reach the breakout (from the bottom). That would give us February 2025. So the breakout is likely to happen somewhere between November and February.
WHAT ABOUT THE PRICE?
As I said above, this idea is more focused on timing the top rather than the price so I'll keep this short. In the first two cycles, Bitcoin topped out at around 2.36 fib level, while in the previous cycle it failed to reach 2.36 and stopped at 1.618. If it reaches 1.618 this cycle, that would be around 174K. May also be lower, but any higher level is very unlikely.
CONCLUSION
Bitcoin jumped from around 25K to almost 74K in a short period of time and many people became very greedy and impatient. After that it got stuck in a sideways movement for months. Everyone are frustrated and can't wait for the bull run to finally continue. Some are starting to doubt and afraid that the top may be in. But the data shows that everything is going according to schedule. Bitcoin is stuck because it was too early to have a cycle top. More patience is needed.
Thank you for reading and I hope you will find this information useful!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.