Bitcoin Mid Term Still Bearish
Updated
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With conflicting BTC technical signals across different time frames, we want to clarify our short to mid term view. As you might have already known, RSI is our favorite indicator, and this is another analysis focused on the daily BTC RSI (14). (Very influenced by Constance Brown’s work).
Despite RSI being an oscillator, its trend / absolute positioning / and relative positioning compared to its MAs are crucial for making sense of the bigger picture. Currently, BTC’s daily RSI is in a dangerous place - trapped beneath its MAs. Without a RSI breakout and finding support above its MAs, it’s very hard to argue either a bullish correction or a continuation of the long-term bull run. Even with a bullish divergence forming (assuming we drop further), it’s possible for another bullish divergence to form with a further drop in price. To us, if the daily RSI MAs do not hold, 10k can’t be broken.
If the bulls push back to the 9.5k level, RSI would exceed its MAs. However, I’m 95% sure the rise will form a hidden bearish divergence at this point. The question then becomes, will the retracement after 9.5k allow daily RSI to find support, or do we travel beneath the MAs again?
Are you currently a bull or a bear on BTC? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
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🌐 We believe in the power of blockchain data analysis!
=====================================================
With conflicting BTC technical signals across different time frames, we want to clarify our short to mid term view. As you might have already known, RSI is our favorite indicator, and this is another analysis focused on the daily BTC RSI (14). (Very influenced by Constance Brown’s work).
Despite RSI being an oscillator, its trend / absolute positioning / and relative positioning compared to its MAs are crucial for making sense of the bigger picture. Currently, BTC’s daily RSI is in a dangerous place - trapped beneath its MAs. Without a RSI breakout and finding support above its MAs, it’s very hard to argue either a bullish correction or a continuation of the long-term bull run. Even with a bullish divergence forming (assuming we drop further), it’s possible for another bullish divergence to form with a further drop in price. To us, if the daily RSI MAs do not hold, 10k can’t be broken.
If the bulls push back to the 9.5k level, RSI would exceed its MAs. However, I’m 95% sure the rise will form a hidden bearish divergence at this point. The question then becomes, will the retracement after 9.5k allow daily RSI to find support, or do we travel beneath the MAs again?
Are you currently a bull or a bear on BTC? All thoughts and critics are welcomed!
=====================================================
🌐 We believe in the power of blockchain data analysis!
=====================================================
Note
There are two group of people in the crypto space: long-term investors and short-term speculators. One often overlooked fact is while short-term speculators dominate the actively daily traded BTC, long-term investors actually dominate the entire BTC holding. Understanding how these two groups contribute to BTC value and price separately is crucial in profiting in the long run. 
Note
Detailed weekly setup updated. Downward pressure expected at 9.8k. 
Note
The current low market interest might lead to a prolonged correction, and the more times we fail at breaking up, the more bearish BTC looks for the short-term. CME institutional traders’ net position remains similar to the level in mid-February 2020 (the BTC price peak before "black Thursday" 40% drop), and it has been dropping significantly since BTC attempted 10k. This makes it very hard to argue the short-term bull side.
Note
Why BTC downward channel still holds:
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