Another bear trap? retro-analysis
Updated
I've been complaining about patterns failing in the last 2 weeks; I am obviously not the only one who noticed that. But now, retroactively counting the Elliott waves, I think I might have spotted another incoming bear trap.
First of all, what if many TA's including myself have got it wrong, and the first pump wasn't an impulse wave 1, but only a failed bull flag? (see circled).
Then one can see the wave counts: 3 subwaves and W, another 3 subwaves and X, then 3 subwaves and Z in a slight uptrend. After that, instead of a wave A as I've initially thought, WXY repeats in downtrend.
That means we are not on a B wave now, but a diagonal minor wave forming a rising wedge. See how well it fits, truncated 5th at the end, so on.
Ok, this is a bear wedge that should inverse trend; but we've already seen a failed bearish triangle wave before the pump, then a failed H&S; patterns were pretty clear tho.
So I suppose this one is a new bear trap and will unnaturally break up, making a pattern that doesn't exist in charting. Even so, I would avoid to place a limit buy above the wedge, resistances above are super strong.
So let's wait and see if the rising wedge is real or it's a new set-up...
First of all, what if many TA's including myself have got it wrong, and the first pump wasn't an impulse wave 1, but only a failed bull flag? (see circled).
Then one can see the wave counts: 3 subwaves and W, another 3 subwaves and X, then 3 subwaves and Z in a slight uptrend. After that, instead of a wave A as I've initially thought, WXY repeats in downtrend.
That means we are not on a B wave now, but a diagonal minor wave forming a rising wedge. See how well it fits, truncated 5th at the end, so on.
Ok, this is a bear wedge that should inverse trend; but we've already seen a failed bearish triangle wave before the pump, then a failed H&S; patterns were pretty clear tho.
So I suppose this one is a new bear trap and will unnaturally break up, making a pattern that doesn't exist in charting. Even so, I would avoid to place a limit buy above the wedge, resistances above are super strong.
So let's wait and see if the rising wedge is real or it's a new set-up...
Note
The wedge pattern should break out quite in a short time. Will it go down, as it should, or it's just another trap? On the BTCUSDLONGS chart I can see that longs are going down, and on the BTCUSDSHORTS chart I see shorts going up; people are preparing for a downtrend.
Note
Just read that on twitter FOMO bot! FOMO Bot @BotFomo 6 minutes ago
NOTE: FINEX has a BID order of 1200 BTC in the book at 8279.9 USD
Somebody is shorting big! :D
Note
Hmmm, whales tried to pump this night by liquidating shorts - as I was warning you - but didn't work so well for them. I think the bear power is too much at this level. On the other side, this pump completed the pattern for a bigger rising wedge, which targets $6900. Are whales strong enough to fight big patterns? or little fish don't let themselves caught and they don't have enough food for that? :D
Anyway, hard to say what comes next - just try to think like a whale.
Note
I think the $8307 resistance line is trying to confirm as support. If it doesn't, the rising wedge will naturally break down. But if the whales pump again, I think we will test $8500. There, I am not so sure they could break out again, 70% chances that we get rejected.
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