Bitcoin : how far down will we go?
Updated
Hi,
So, we were pushed down by the bearish trendline (linear, Bitfinex) from 19k-17k... AND not supported by the bullish support line from 6K. Oh dear.
I had reduced my BTC exposure at around 11.5k (before rejection!) and am now about 40% exposed, from 60% before.
We will get support somewhere on the journey down, but where? My bet is around the 0.5 fib retracement (8.8k) but I won't be placing limit orders. I will scale in my BTC exposure only when I see confirmed support at a level or solid signs of reversal over a decent timeframe. I try not to look at less than 12h candles when it comes to buying and selling decisions,.. because I am sometimes weak!
Any thoughts where we will reverse? and why?
So, we were pushed down by the bearish trendline (linear, Bitfinex) from 19k-17k... AND not supported by the bullish support line from 6K. Oh dear.
I had reduced my BTC exposure at around 11.5k (before rejection!) and am now about 40% exposed, from 60% before.
We will get support somewhere on the journey down, but where? My bet is around the 0.5 fib retracement (8.8k) but I won't be placing limit orders. I will scale in my BTC exposure only when I see confirmed support at a level or solid signs of reversal over a decent timeframe. I try not to look at less than 12h candles when it comes to buying and selling decisions,.. because I am sometimes weak!
Any thoughts where we will reverse? and why?
Note
Hi. So, 10K did not hold. At 9890 at the time of writing. This is either a "healthy correction" from the recent bull run from 6k to 11.7k or a sign that the bear market has further to go, in terms of time and price. A healthy correction in BTC-land means 50-62% fib level.
If we don't reverse with conviction from the 38% fib level at 9.5k I will sell more BTC, down to 20-25% BTC exposure. If I could get my coins on the exchange right now, I would reduce my exposure to from 40% to 30% immediately. I am not looking for max profit, instead looking to retain profit while minimising risk, so I inevitably sacrifice losing potential max gains. In other words, it will take me longer to get my lambo, but I will eventually get my lambo! ;-)
Good luck!
Note
Well, we found support at the 38% fib level, broke the short term channel descending resistance (shown in following image) and have just bounced off the 23.6% fib level residence.I increased my BTC exposure after we broke through the channel resistance,.. but only after if dipped down and retested that resistance - thereby turning it into support. Up to 28% BTC exposure now.
Will add more if we break the 38% level and this is confirmed by a bounce from the top-side and turned into support.
Note
If we go down again. the places to watch are the channel resitance (which had turned into support) and then the 38% fib level again.Note
Looking more and more like a descending wedge. Sold the little I bought earlier at a slight loss. 20% exposed in BTC now. Bearish
Note
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