Too much hope on Bitcoin in short term
Updated
I’m pro ‘less talk, more think’ advise in life. In a TA community it could be less chart, more analysis! :))
After one year of being a member of TV, with only 13 idea published, even I wish published less. I tried to focus on medium-long terms and got each Bitcoin, Gold and Oil a main chart. Around 8-9 months passed and the chart’s performance was unbelievably good. One more point that made publishing charts here harder for me, is that I’m not agree with static way of analysis. We should pay more attention to the evolving aspect of markets. I had a more bullish projection of BTC for end of the year but whether one wants or not, any projection or analysis are based on assumptions and anything assumed in mind is a variable to the situation and knowledge. After the Covid19 things become different, so if one has a flexible outlook, gets higher chance to be relax, acts confidently and catches new trend sooner than other.
Some told me you put both direction in charts, to not be false! First, I actually have planned to do less advisory and work more on my own projects so these shared ideas weren’t my way of making money so trying to be fake true has nothing for me here. Add to that, we are as wise as our previous mistakes, so that’s foolish trying to be flawless or fake it. It’s Very important to don’t seek magical predictions. Economic analysis is the key and as an expert in this area, I incorporate a multi scenario projections in various time scales based on FA, combine it with inter-market analysis and tracking of price action signals (with the algorithm). So far results were the real magic. ;)
At first, I wanted publish my medium-long terms scenarios for main instruments in the markets at once and not update it till it become invalid or reach target. But I’ve changed my mind of that. Thought it would be better to keep being dynamic but share ideas gradually as things develop in the market. I start with BTC here, it’s for a while that more than 50% of my energy goes for projecting its path in 2020-21 and recently it comes to the first conclusions. I got a screenshot of it last night and will be publish around one year from today! Let’s go to the first step.
BTC did crash after the Covid19 made markets mad. One month passed, it’s still trying to offset the devaluation. But we see that it is losing momentum gradually and bulls became weaker for now. Would it continue so? I think we passed phase I of the Covid19 pandemic next phase is the economic turbulences when pandemic gradually slows down and controlled while the real casualties would be clearer to assess. What I assume is that market would see that it was too hopeful in this correction period, so the market is very fragile to any information according to that. That’s why my first projection is the red one that suggest sharper drops. Blue one has the same target but assumes buyers still remain certain and the bears need more time to come. The green one is alternative to these assumptions.
I’ll be here for updates every one or two weeks to see if is it the case or we should adjust the longer projections.
After one year of being a member of TV, with only 13 idea published, even I wish published less. I tried to focus on medium-long terms and got each Bitcoin, Gold and Oil a main chart. Around 8-9 months passed and the chart’s performance was unbelievably good. One more point that made publishing charts here harder for me, is that I’m not agree with static way of analysis. We should pay more attention to the evolving aspect of markets. I had a more bullish projection of BTC for end of the year but whether one wants or not, any projection or analysis are based on assumptions and anything assumed in mind is a variable to the situation and knowledge. After the Covid19 things become different, so if one has a flexible outlook, gets higher chance to be relax, acts confidently and catches new trend sooner than other.
Some told me you put both direction in charts, to not be false! First, I actually have planned to do less advisory and work more on my own projects so these shared ideas weren’t my way of making money so trying to be fake true has nothing for me here. Add to that, we are as wise as our previous mistakes, so that’s foolish trying to be flawless or fake it. It’s Very important to don’t seek magical predictions. Economic analysis is the key and as an expert in this area, I incorporate a multi scenario projections in various time scales based on FA, combine it with inter-market analysis and tracking of price action signals (with the algorithm). So far results were the real magic. ;)
At first, I wanted publish my medium-long terms scenarios for main instruments in the markets at once and not update it till it become invalid or reach target. But I’ve changed my mind of that. Thought it would be better to keep being dynamic but share ideas gradually as things develop in the market. I start with BTC here, it’s for a while that more than 50% of my energy goes for projecting its path in 2020-21 and recently it comes to the first conclusions. I got a screenshot of it last night and will be publish around one year from today! Let’s go to the first step.
BTC did crash after the Covid19 made markets mad. One month passed, it’s still trying to offset the devaluation. But we see that it is losing momentum gradually and bulls became weaker for now. Would it continue so? I think we passed phase I of the Covid19 pandemic next phase is the economic turbulences when pandemic gradually slows down and controlled while the real casualties would be clearer to assess. What I assume is that market would see that it was too hopeful in this correction period, so the market is very fragile to any information according to that. That’s why my first projection is the red one that suggest sharper drops. Blue one has the same target but assumes buyers still remain certain and the bears need more time to come. The green one is alternative to these assumptions.
I’ll be here for updates every one or two weeks to see if is it the case or we should adjust the longer projections.
Note
Here is the professional vision :->This is one of the best price action trackers algorithm B-)
Have best trades.
Note
#Bitcoin blown up, means projections are invalid? The green projection happened actually, but in a much more narrower time scale. It was surprising, but price levels are much more predictable than time of events. I’ve mentioned once about being pro bears to soon, so as a precaution I’ve put a S/R zone in last chart of BTC that became a support before bulls fully takes control again. Anyway that was not good idea when I tried to short above 6.5K, where most of my algo indicators where bullish above it.
So how do I analysis this? Huge pumps when fundamental situation isn’t supporting, couldn’t be out of two possibility: either its fake (or emotional) or there’s something they know that we don’t.
If the second one is the case, then anything that make it to pump in this corona-economic situation, will be huge in longer terms too and if you didn’t long it here almost didn’t lose anything in long term. If price passes next S/R upward and reaches bullish target then another drop in short terms gets unlikely. Also, my projection may have a delay because the green path was similar to my next month outlook.
But if it was emotional, this is a better short opportunity and one should use it properly by adjusting possible reversal zones.
You can see the harmonic work in the background. Albeit this is a bearish formation, but if the price didn’t fall then it’s not valid. But the similarity in two time scales are important when it comes to fractal analysis.
Note
The alternative projection (green) becomes true. Obviously this bull was strong and mainly due too halving but at the end dropped where it started to jump. More bears have to come, meanwhile I should adjust the projections. I'm still pro shorts and this is my very short term vision of it
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