BTC ... Stop guessing and keep it simple!
Updated
If I learned one thing about BTC in 2018, it is that we should all stop guessing where it's going (up or down). I find most of the time, when we guess, it's almost impossible to push aside our emotions. What that means is that our guess reflects our wishes ... our dreams. "I've shorted from 3300, and now I believe it's going to 1000, and I'm going to get rich!" WRONG! It's never that easy.
I do believe that TA can help, don't get me wrong. But going to 1000 or 100,000 is a guess ... nothing more. Both uber-bears and uber-bulls alike are toxic to the naive trader.
KEEP IT SIMPLE.
Find patterns, and the longer the pattern spans on the time frame, the more important it is.
Here's one that's been developing since the beginning of April. A simple parallel channel. The way to trade this is to buy the bottom, sell the top, and have your stops a reasonable margin outside of it (above it for shorts, and below it for longs). You cannot put your stop $1 outside of the channel, the whales will eat you ... they look for those obvious stops. If you can afford, put the stop sufficiently away from the channel, risking around 2 to 3% of your capital. You have to be in a zone that is away from the obvious stops, probably where 70% of the crowd will obviously set them up. Figure that out!
In some cases you can flip from long to short, or from short to long on the stop ... but it has to be safe (note, I prefer not to do that and rather wait for the next setup, as flipping is guessing!).
So, good luck if you want to keep guessing. You might win the lottery, you might lose a lot too.
I prefer to do what successful traders do. Calculated moves, good risk:reward ratios, protected by well-thought out stops.
Do not use this information for trading, financial or investment decisions, for educational purposes only.
I do believe that TA can help, don't get me wrong. But going to 1000 or 100,000 is a guess ... nothing more. Both uber-bears and uber-bulls alike are toxic to the naive trader.
KEEP IT SIMPLE.
Find patterns, and the longer the pattern spans on the time frame, the more important it is.
Here's one that's been developing since the beginning of April. A simple parallel channel. The way to trade this is to buy the bottom, sell the top, and have your stops a reasonable margin outside of it (above it for shorts, and below it for longs). You cannot put your stop $1 outside of the channel, the whales will eat you ... they look for those obvious stops. If you can afford, put the stop sufficiently away from the channel, risking around 2 to 3% of your capital. You have to be in a zone that is away from the obvious stops, probably where 70% of the crowd will obviously set them up. Figure that out!
In some cases you can flip from long to short, or from short to long on the stop ... but it has to be safe (note, I prefer not to do that and rather wait for the next setup, as flipping is guessing!).
So, good luck if you want to keep guessing. You might win the lottery, you might lose a lot too.
I prefer to do what successful traders do. Calculated moves, good risk:reward ratios, protected by well-thought out stops.
Do not use this information for trading, financial or investment decisions, for educational purposes only.
Note
Anybody believe me yet?Note
Channel STILL active. Look for candle close, not wicks. Wicks are fake outs in many cases. Close of 1h as a minimum, close of 4h, 12h and daily are better (the larger the time frame, the more meaningful).Channel has been generated now over a 27 day period! We have posted HH, and HL ... so technically trend is still to the upside.
Shorts on finex are very high relative to longs ... a short squeeze is on the table.
Note
Channel still going strong. Can BTC hit $6000?Note
And there it is folks ... we cracked 6k on finex. Now this is important, the candle has currently breached the channel, but we should wait for the daily candle to close. The bears will try and push this back into the channel and make this breach a wick ... which technically saves them from ultimate defeat. I know the price is lower on other exchanges, but arbitrage kicks in, and that is causing all the other prices to go up.
IF we close above this channel, technically we may be playing a big bull flag, and look at the size of the flag post on April 3 ... we would have a very high target.
However!! I always try and think how the whales can make money, because they control the market. A bull trap on this play would be classic ... squeeze the shorts, and then squeeze the longs ... so be careful of a big correction down after we sense bull euphoria kick in.
Note
Slight adjustment ... but the beat goes on ... back in the channel! Remember always wait for confirmation of the break out!Note
And there you have it folks, that's why you shouldn't listen to nonsense, and keep it simple. I have tracked many of the top/front page posts on TV and about 80% were calling for a drop of BTC ... This is what happened.
We broke the upside of the channel, we back checked it as support ... once that was confirmed ... boom, it goes up.
So the question you probably have is ... now what?
I like to educate, not give answers ... look for the next structure. Surely we have a rising wedge or channel now. Draw a bottom support line, and don't get caught in fake wicks (wait for daily confirmation).
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