Updated

BTC Bear End - Leading + Ending Diagonal + Double-Bottom @ ~6k

My current TA for ending Bitcoin's bear market:

What I see appears to be a Leading Diagonal for wave-A, then correctional wave-B, followed by an Ending Diagonal for wave-C.
We may end with a double-bottom near or a bit below the 6k mark.
If so, may be done in 1-2 weeks.

Right now I'm undecided if we will continue in an uptrend to 7900 range (after short downward correction).
It IS still possible though, and I do hope for that.
I'm a bit on the fence right now with regards to the short-term direction, we'll just have to observe for the while.

Note

Right now, I believe that BTC is on a correctional wave-4 of a larger wave-C down-trend.
What I'm unsure of is the extent of this wave-4.

It may either be very small ABC, and we are nearing its end.

Or we are still just on subwave-3 of of wave-A, and will take possibly a week to complete this wave-4.

Note

Bitcoin appears to be taking the path I recently suspected (but didn't prefer).

I suggested that we may be in a larger Ending Diagonal for wave-C (thus narrowing), and wave-4 may be a very small ABC.

I see that the path of the last few hours appears to be 5 subwaves of a wave-1 down at the moment.

Seeking bounce to ~7175.
More confirmation of next trend/direction in 10-16 hrs.

Note

Bicoin dipped a bit lower, hopefully that's the end of these 5 subwaves.
Shouldn't be able to keep falling without a slight correction here.

Mentioning this in case anyone bought/Long at around 7k.
Still chance to exit @ ~7130 without losses, or even small profit.

Note

Bitcoin entering (already touched) correction zone.
Updated after end of 5th subwave found.
Showing likeliness to resume down-trend after this minor correction.

Note

We're likely still wrapping up ABC correction here.
About 2 hours ago when I saw the heavy drop, I didn't think the ABC was yet complete, and adjusted my chart for that drop being a B-wave.
Could take a few more hours to see how far it corrects.
(Hopefully no sudden dump)

Note

Be aware that such major news (apparently released just 1-2 hours ago), could "potentially" cut the full correction short, and may cause next down-trend could be heavier:

Bitcoin [BTC] banned in India – Reserve Bank of India releases an official statement
ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-btc-banned-in-india-reserve-bank-of-india-releases-an-official-statement/

Note

Bitcoin appears to have formed a Bearish Pennant.
If it cannot break above ~7875 convincingly soon, it seems highly likely that we will continue to downtrend further.

Note

Fixed: If it cannot break above ~6875* convincingly soon...

Update:
Reviewing new data, I believe that BTC may have tricked us/me with that sharp downtrend 2 days ago.

We "may" have actually had waves 1 to 3 already.
Pennants are typically wave-4 formations, not wave-2.

Also, that drop would have been incredibly long for a wave-1, it engulfed the entire previous ABC.

Such counts are hard to spot in advance, if possible at all.

Note

It's difficult to give a precise target for this drop, especially when I'm not quite sure of which wave we actually are on.
Initially thought wave-1, but with new info it seems possibly wave-3:

I'll have to consider a wide target range till we see more development and data:
5850-6250

Note

BTC is in a confluence (intersection) of very major support and resistance, which is what has caused the sideways price action of the past 2-3 days.
Need to be alert here, because of this intersection, there is no guarantee we resume downward.
Confluence causing difficult count.

I'm still leaning towards Bearish/Down for the next few days, however, we should not let prior bias cloud our analysis, ruling out alternate counts.
I repeat that we are at a MAJOR intersection between (months old) support and resistances, causing market indecision/side movement.

Note

I see more than 1 count which may suggest BTC could be due for a pullback (down) soon. Recent movements are definitely harder to count than usual, especially with day-long sideways movements. We're still in a confluence of major support and resistance, causing market uncertainty

Note

This is my main Bitcoin price path(s) at the moment.
Based on wave count, I feel that we are completing wave-A of ABC (wave-2).
However based on time, points met and proportionality, it makes me consider that wave-2 may be at it's end, about to start a heavy wave-3 down.

Note

Bitcoin stalling a bit here because a channel has formed, and bulls are attempting to bounce off the bottom of this channel, while bears will want to push it below to resume down-trend.

Note

I exited BTC long position near the top of that last impulse @ 7050.
Saw plausible count 5 waves of a Leading Diagonal. Couldn't see strong uptrend maintained with such low volume. Market still acting uncertain, be very careful, not wise to go all in betting on either direction.

I found the market a bit suspicious lately, sideways all day then sudden pump in minutes, repeat... As if these pumps are done by individual/group.

A lot of traders have warmed up to being Bears, which means less buyers lately.
Potential trap to get traders Bullish then dump.

Please be aware of massive 5k sell wall ($36 Million) on Bitfinex.

Such walls are often mind games, as sellers usually won't want you to know in advance they are planning to sell.
However this shows increase risk of planning to go long right now.

Best to keep observing till more clarity.

Note

There is a good chance that hasn't yet completed it's wave-4 down.
The movement that we are experiencing does not resemble a wave-5.
More likely we are still channeling sideways out of a Symmetrical Triangle for wave-4.
We could possibly hit ~7300 before another wave down.

I remember thinking that what we previously considered to be wave-4 was oddly short compared to the previous waves of this impulse down.

Wave-4 Triangle patterns are often confusing and difficult to spot early in it's formation.

Note: Entering Long to exit @ 7300 may be risky.

Note

BTC zoomed in to wave-4 triangle.
Each wave (ABCDE) of a Symmetrical Triangle should have it's own "ABC" wave.
We can clearly see the ABC in wave A & B.
Wave C's is harder to distinguish, hence I recommend caution.
Likely stop (if not at the current point), is between 7200-7400.

Note

We could have confirmation soon on where we actually are. Nearing my 6600 target.
Decent bounce ~6600 should indicate ABCDE of wave-4.
Breaking down through ~6600 suggests subwave-3 of wave-5.
I'm in Fiat waiting for clarity.

Note

UPDATE:
I have updated my main wave-4 count to that of a 3-3-5 Flat Correction.

BTC 5th and Last wave down started - 3-3-5 wave-4 Flat complete

My alternate wave-4 count is a 3-3-3-3-3- Symmetrical Triangle.
(Alt Count)

I'll set downside targets after more confirmation.

I'll likely update my newest post and not this one, so please feel free to subscribe.

AndrewEDavis

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AndrewEDavis

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