Bitcoin Technical Analysis Monthly
Updated
I posted a couple months ago other TA for monthly chart using a parallel channel . for this chart I will use my own rules (taken from my own trading system).
I don't use RSI with my own system but it is interesting reading this indicator in macro for understanding the condition in the big picture.
In September-October I started shorting bitcoin from 66k all the way down to 47k from 50k to 46k and now from 44k to 40k just following my own rules.
Bitcoin broke 47k key level from my perspective this level was very important because there we have EMA 55 5D chart and Volume Profile the peak was there.
This week Jan 10- 2022 BTC officially closed below EMA 55 Weekly this is very bad for the price.
Following my own rules EMA 55 is the key Moving Average to determine if one asset is bullish or bearish.
Breaking both moving averages EMA 55 in 5D and Weekly and confirming the close below them I am expecting continuation to 37k-35k area where is the next level of the Volume Profile.
from there I am expecting a good bounce following in macro ABC correction
If btc goes to 37k I will be bearish for this year following my system.
Fundamentals:
If you are bullish right now with btc because the "Fear and Greed Index" is in the extreme fear zone let me tell you something
from 17k to 56k this indicator was from 80 to 92/94 Extreme Greed following this indicator you would sell at 17k and you would miss all the run to 56k area same thing could happen now . we could be in a Fear territory for months.
Honestly I don't see real fear right now because influencers, tiktokers, "gurus" on youtube are calling to buy the dip....
Technical
I am technical Trader.
BEAR:
Breaking 40k we will see a confirmation of a weekly bear market.
for first in my system, I see bearish divergences confirmed in monthly for bitcoin following my system I am expecting to see in some point a test to EMA 55 Monthly this year around 20k or lower.(14k-10k)
2M sell signal using my system
3M candle (March 2022) any close below 47k after March will fire a sell signal in 3M chart.
Shooting Star in 3M chart
Shooting Star 6M chart
all together for first time in the history of BTC .
Bear divergence in 1M chart the slope is getting negative see the chart and watch what happened before... after the slope is negative in the EMA for the RSI
*I am not bearish/bullish I am just sharing what I see.
If the bear divergence in 1M chart is going to play we will see an extended bear market 2022- half of 2023.
Of course we will see nice bounces in the process but the macro time frames are clear.
As investor I will be happy if my TA works for this year because we will have a new chance to buy more and cheap BTC and other altcoins.
BULL:
BTC must hold 35k-30k region all 2022 at least 6 months.
BTC must recover 47k pivot and hold a couple months.
if BTC does this we will see a reset of all the indicators and BTC will get more momentum for bulls.
Many people are asking if I am buying now BTC or Alts.
ALTS: I am not buying anything since October (I cashed out)
BTC: Waiting for buy signal in 1D chart(for trading) not for holding(not yet)
I don't use RSI with my own system but it is interesting reading this indicator in macro for understanding the condition in the big picture.
In September-October I started shorting bitcoin from 66k all the way down to 47k from 50k to 46k and now from 44k to 40k just following my own rules.
Bitcoin broke 47k key level from my perspective this level was very important because there we have EMA 55 5D chart and Volume Profile the peak was there.
This week Jan 10- 2022 BTC officially closed below EMA 55 Weekly this is very bad for the price.
Following my own rules EMA 55 is the key Moving Average to determine if one asset is bullish or bearish.
Breaking both moving averages EMA 55 in 5D and Weekly and confirming the close below them I am expecting continuation to 37k-35k area where is the next level of the Volume Profile.
from there I am expecting a good bounce following in macro ABC correction
If btc goes to 37k I will be bearish for this year following my system.
Fundamentals:
If you are bullish right now with btc because the "Fear and Greed Index" is in the extreme fear zone let me tell you something
from 17k to 56k this indicator was from 80 to 92/94 Extreme Greed following this indicator you would sell at 17k and you would miss all the run to 56k area same thing could happen now . we could be in a Fear territory for months.
Honestly I don't see real fear right now because influencers, tiktokers, "gurus" on youtube are calling to buy the dip....
Technical
I am technical Trader.
BEAR:
Breaking 40k we will see a confirmation of a weekly bear market.
for first in my system, I see bearish divergences confirmed in monthly for bitcoin following my system I am expecting to see in some point a test to EMA 55 Monthly this year around 20k or lower.(14k-10k)
2M sell signal using my system
3M candle (March 2022) any close below 47k after March will fire a sell signal in 3M chart.
Shooting Star in 3M chart
Shooting Star 6M chart
all together for first time in the history of BTC .
Bear divergence in 1M chart the slope is getting negative see the chart and watch what happened before... after the slope is negative in the EMA for the RSI
*I am not bearish/bullish I am just sharing what I see.
If the bear divergence in 1M chart is going to play we will see an extended bear market 2022- half of 2023.
Of course we will see nice bounces in the process but the macro time frames are clear.
As investor I will be happy if my TA works for this year because we will have a new chance to buy more and cheap BTC and other altcoins.
BULL:
BTC must hold 35k-30k region all 2022 at least 6 months.
BTC must recover 47k pivot and hold a couple months.
if BTC does this we will see a reset of all the indicators and BTC will get more momentum for bulls.
Many people are asking if I am buying now BTC or Alts.
ALTS: I am not buying anything since October (I cashed out)
BTC: Waiting for buy signal in 1D chart(for trading) not for holding(not yet)
Note
I am glad to see my TA is working as expected in Monthly chart. ABC correction but I am expecting other leg down to 30k.Trade active
Bitcoin Update: 5D chart following my system of trading fired. If this week btc breaks 38k region we will see a major leg down.
This time 30k area will not hold.
C wave targets if this level breaks
Targets:
26k Ema 55.
14k <--- Wick expected if ema 55 hit in monthly
10k last target. killing all the people from 2020 bull market.
Trading for living!
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