A Bitcoin Fib-Time Based Cycle (Concept #2)
Updated
In this chart, we take a look at a second Bitcoin Fib-Time Cycles concept (2/5). Refer to the original idea for concept #1 linked below. This Concept #2 is an alternative 8-step cycle phase to my original concept. This zooms out further and takes Bitcoin from a greater 2-phase cycle perspective. This concept is for the long-term investor who aims to track major Bitcoin phases when time is not on their side. Treat each signpost phase as a ranged period mindset until the next is triggered. This is not to be conflicted with the original concept, however, another perspective.
In this second concept, the positioning of the trend-based Fib-Time Extensions has been drawn from Bitcoin's inception to the first impulse rally from 2009 to its 2017 all-time high. From there it is projected sequentially again to 2026. The reasons for placement are through an observational nature in the structure of the cycles, or at least how I see it. From 2009 > 2011 > 2013 > 2017 as being marked one cycle, to 2017 > to now as a potential being marked as the second cycle. A repeat of this cycle however is on a larger scale. The ATHs to cycle lows across these two cycles are also noted as 2011's low from ATH was -93% whereas 2013 was 86%. Thus in 2017, it was -84% and to date 2022 is -76%. It appears that it is 1 larger drop proceeding by a lesser % drop.
Note: These vertical projections are not manually placed; they are based on Fibonacci sequence numbers derived from the noted placements (0-1). Interestingly, where they end up relates to the major pivots across the start and end of the sequence.
Importantly, this is not a price prediction or estimation, nor does it offer an overall bearish or bullish take. Although the outlook seems bullish, cycles can play out over the years, and we may not have seen Bitcoin's final cycle just yet. This is why this is an alternative concept to others I have been exploring. More alternatives in the coming weeks and months.
This merely presents a conceptual analysis of Bitcoin's time and cycles to date, highlighting key pivotal points worth watching for. Timing can be just as crucial as managing risk. Having a plan to correlate these factors allows you to spend less time watching charts and more time enjoying whatever you want.
Key Takeaways:
With a 1-2 weeks variance, each fib level (signpost) approximately triggers the next phase. It is within that phase expect the noted legend and take that mindset.
Each fib range marks approximately 2900 days (8yrs)
Note that 0.5 is not an actual fib level.
Once a cycle of phases is completed, rise and repeat.
We are 8 weeks, 3 days until we hit the next phase (Climb the Wall of Worry)
This current second iteration cycle is projected to end in Dec 2025.
This is purely a concept and not financial advice. I apologise for the resolution. A screenshot can be viewed here:
In this second concept, the positioning of the trend-based Fib-Time Extensions has been drawn from Bitcoin's inception to the first impulse rally from 2009 to its 2017 all-time high. From there it is projected sequentially again to 2026. The reasons for placement are through an observational nature in the structure of the cycles, or at least how I see it. From 2009 > 2011 > 2013 > 2017 as being marked one cycle, to 2017 > to now as a potential being marked as the second cycle. A repeat of this cycle however is on a larger scale. The ATHs to cycle lows across these two cycles are also noted as 2011's low from ATH was -93% whereas 2013 was 86%. Thus in 2017, it was -84% and to date 2022 is -76%. It appears that it is 1 larger drop proceeding by a lesser % drop.
Note: These vertical projections are not manually placed; they are based on Fibonacci sequence numbers derived from the noted placements (0-1). Interestingly, where they end up relates to the major pivots across the start and end of the sequence.
Importantly, this is not a price prediction or estimation, nor does it offer an overall bearish or bullish take. Although the outlook seems bullish, cycles can play out over the years, and we may not have seen Bitcoin's final cycle just yet. This is why this is an alternative concept to others I have been exploring. More alternatives in the coming weeks and months.
This merely presents a conceptual analysis of Bitcoin's time and cycles to date, highlighting key pivotal points worth watching for. Timing can be just as crucial as managing risk. Having a plan to correlate these factors allows you to spend less time watching charts and more time enjoying whatever you want.
Key Takeaways:
With a 1-2 weeks variance, each fib level (signpost) approximately triggers the next phase. It is within that phase expect the noted legend and take that mindset.
Each fib range marks approximately 2900 days (8yrs)
Note that 0.5 is not an actual fib level.
Once a cycle of phases is completed, rise and repeat.
We are 8 weeks, 3 days until we hit the next phase (Climb the Wall of Worry)
This current second iteration cycle is projected to end in Dec 2025.
This is purely a concept and not financial advice. I apologise for the resolution. A screenshot can be viewed here:
Note
First update since posting this chart. Its been a while but we are now in midst of transitioning into a new signpost. "Climbing the Wall of Worry". There is no clear exact dates here but it is something to remain cautious of. The signpost legend states:6. Begin to climb the wall of worry, it won't be easy, ignore the noise and embrace the break of major resistance.
Seems rather fitting to the current market conditions. We will have to wait and see within the next few weeks, if we are now going to be heading down or breaking through and clearing the 2021 ATH. If this does play out, following history, we may grind upwards ever so slowly until the next signpost in Jan 2025.
Personally I do favour my Concept #3 although anything can happen.
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