Elliott Wave and Pattern reliability thoughts....
Updated
Well I think we've finished Subwave 1 and 2 and are onto Subwave 3 of this Wave C of this ABC correction. The strength of subwave 1 leads me to think that we are heading to 36k/37k, and not 35k.
Is it possible that this wave we are on is not an ABC correction, but actually the start of the Intermediate Wave 5 to 100k and beyond? Yes, it's possible. We may have formed a triple bottom at
29K, which has a 79% reliability. However, we also broke the neckline of a H+S pattern which predicts a drop to 20k with 83% reliability.
This is a big conundrum; 4% difference is not enough to conclusively say either way. We have to watch what happens when the price changes direction at the $36/37k region to see where we are going.
Here is the tricky part for swing traders: how do we know when the price turns around at
36K that it is a correction of an Intermediate Wave 5 going up (so can be ignored for swing traders), or it is the start of the last leg down to complete the Intermediate Wave 4 at 20k? I came across this exact same situation in 2018, and it is super tricky to get right.
The way to get it right is to analyze the wave structure as it goes down. It is likely to be aggressive, but I think it will be choppy going down if we have started Wave 5. The hourly candles will be more mixed in color and waves will cross in the corrective direction: so if this happens in the waves going up (as the price goes down), that means that we are going down to 20k, but if the reverse is true, then we are in a corrective wave of an Intermediate Wave 5 going up.
My strong suggestion is to rewind a bit to 2018 and look at that big wave up before it plunged to 3k. Analyze the hourly candles at the top of the corrective wave up, and see if you can detect the point in which a Primary Wave 5 start was invalidated (just to be clear, I think the price from 3k to
65K is Intermediate Wave 1, 2 and 3 of Primary Wave 5).
Is it possible that this wave we are on is not an ABC correction, but actually the start of the Intermediate Wave 5 to 100k and beyond? Yes, it's possible. We may have formed a triple bottom at
29K, which has a 79% reliability. However, we also broke the neckline of a H+S pattern which predicts a drop to 20k with 83% reliability.This is a big conundrum; 4% difference is not enough to conclusively say either way. We have to watch what happens when the price changes direction at the $36/37k region to see where we are going.
Here is the tricky part for swing traders: how do we know when the price turns around at
36K that it is a correction of an Intermediate Wave 5 going up (so can be ignored for swing traders), or it is the start of the last leg down to complete the Intermediate Wave 4 at 20k? I came across this exact same situation in 2018, and it is super tricky to get right.The way to get it right is to analyze the wave structure as it goes down. It is likely to be aggressive, but I think it will be choppy going down if we have started Wave 5. The hourly candles will be more mixed in color and waves will cross in the corrective direction: so if this happens in the waves going up (as the price goes down), that means that we are going down to 20k, but if the reverse is true, then we are in a corrective wave of an Intermediate Wave 5 going up.
My strong suggestion is to rewind a bit to 2018 and look at that big wave up before it plunged to 3k. Analyze the hourly candles at the top of the corrective wave up, and see if you can detect the point in which a Primary Wave 5 start was invalidated (just to be clear, I think the price from 3k to
65K is Intermediate Wave 1, 2 and 3 of Primary Wave 5).Note
Check here for my thoughts on 2018, to help compare with today's candle structure: 
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