Good morning all. Lets talk market outlook and what downside targets might be if the bearish trend continues.
1.) Above is the monthly chart for just this cycle (Nov 2020 to current). Unlike earlier cycles, we have a rising macro support. This support trendline overlays the point of control (POC) going into next month *-which is the price range with the most interest historically-* and developing POC. A wick under would tap 62% fib perfectly (around $32.4k). The 62% fib level is historically a healthy and respected support level to revisit during corrections. A lot of confluence in that range.
But you also see the developing POC swings down to around $19/20k depending on whether the market is near the top or bottom of its range for this cycle. We know that $20k range has major support based on historical patterns.
2.) Then we move to the 12 year chart (2M candles), support/resist levels on the right (price column). Locally 445/46K and $29/30k are the two major levels we are bound between at the moment. I give a range for each because the levels on HTF move over time.
--
Note: markets are volatile currently. Macroeconomics and Ukraine/Russia events can potentially escalate or deescalate quickly, leading to strong moves across financial markets. For now crypto is trending down as it continues to price in current events (escalation of Ukraine conflict and more aggressive tapering). If these issues deescalate, we can also post a strong move upside.
--
If the downtrend continues, I'm watching the following levels for a market floor. If we lose one, I'll watch the next:
❧ Target 1: $34k-$35k range; specifically watching $34.6k and $34.4k for the cycle support, point of control, 2021 bear supports
❧ Target 2: $28k-
31K range; specifically watching $28.8k to $31.2k which are significant points in the value range, and 
29K being a minor monthly support
❧ Target 3: $18k-$20k range; specifically watching $18.3k to (estimate) around $20.2k where the developing POC is ranging. $19.6 is a monthly support level and $19.6k is the 2017 cycle top.
--
Note: This isn't a cross-examination of all data, nor am I referencing any on-chain. I think on-chain suggests a flip from growing bullish sentiment in early February to neutral/bearish sentiment in recent weeks. I suspect the Russia/Ukraine news stopped out an emerging bullish rally. And if it doesn't deescalate soon, we will see an extended bear market here, instead of a bearish quarterly cycle.
1.) Above is the monthly chart for just this cycle (Nov 2020 to current). Unlike earlier cycles, we have a rising macro support. This support trendline overlays the point of control (POC) going into next month *-which is the price range with the most interest historically-* and developing POC. A wick under would tap 62% fib perfectly (around $32.4k). The 62% fib level is historically a healthy and respected support level to revisit during corrections. A lot of confluence in that range.
But you also see the developing POC swings down to around $19/20k depending on whether the market is near the top or bottom of its range for this cycle. We know that $20k range has major support based on historical patterns.
2.) Then we move to the 12 year chart (2M candles), support/resist levels on the right (price column). Locally 445/46K and $29/30k are the two major levels we are bound between at the moment. I give a range for each because the levels on HTF move over time.
--
Note: markets are volatile currently. Macroeconomics and Ukraine/Russia events can potentially escalate or deescalate quickly, leading to strong moves across financial markets. For now crypto is trending down as it continues to price in current events (escalation of Ukraine conflict and more aggressive tapering). If these issues deescalate, we can also post a strong move upside.
--
If the downtrend continues, I'm watching the following levels for a market floor. If we lose one, I'll watch the next:
❧ Target 1: $34k-$35k range; specifically watching $34.6k and $34.4k for the cycle support, point of control, 2021 bear supports
❧ Target 2: $28k-
31K range; specifically watching $28.8k to $31.2k which are significant points in the value range, and 29K being a minor monthly support❧ Target 3: $18k-$20k range; specifically watching $18.3k to (estimate) around $20.2k where the developing POC is ranging. $19.6 is a monthly support level and $19.6k is the 2017 cycle top.
--
Note: This isn't a cross-examination of all data, nor am I referencing any on-chain. I think on-chain suggests a flip from growing bullish sentiment in early February to neutral/bearish sentiment in recent weeks. I suspect the Russia/Ukraine news stopped out an emerging bullish rally. And if it doesn't deescalate soon, we will see an extended bear market here, instead of a bearish quarterly cycle.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.