Pay Close attention to 50 Weekly Moving Average
Updated
Hi Everyone,
Welcome to this analysis about Bitcoin.
By looking at my previous publication, you see that I consider 50 Week Moving Average as a very strong and firm support line, which I like to not to be broken, because by looking at the historical data, we can conclude that when 50 Week Moving Average (Yellow Line) is broken, BTC makes its way all the way down to 200 Week Moving Average, which is currently at $18,421 (Red Line). Of course at the time BTC reaches this support line (Next Few weeks or months), 200 Week MA will be at higher level (around 20K-21K).
There are only a few hours left to close our today’s daily candle. The current price is currently below 200 Day Moving Average, and if it closes below 200 WMA, it increases the odds for our weekly candle, which will close tomorrow, to also close below 50 Week Moving Average (below $47,700), and in this case, this week’s candlestick would be the first one, closing below 50WMA since March 2020.
As long as BTC stays above its critical Moving averages, the Bull case scenario is on the table but my suggestion is to be very careful about the situation when trading.
My Bear case scenario:
By crossing below 50 Week MA and 200 Day MA, I count 22K-17K as the bottom for below-mentioned reasons. (This bottom can be estimated more precisely when we are browsing below 25K.)
First of all, the 200 Week Moving Average is projected to be around 20K-21K by the next few months.
Secondly, we can see that after Bull Run in 2013 and 2017, BTC retraces to around 0.786 Fibonacci Level in the Bear Market. Interestingly, 0.786 Fib Level for 2021 Bull run sits at 17K.
Thirdly, by drawing the diagonal trendlines, which BTC has reacted to them, the main support line is at (18K-21K).
Fourthly, the 2017’s peak cycle is at 19.5K.
Fifthly, there is a massive Head & Shoulders pattern on the chart, which shows the target of less than 20K. this pattern can be activated by BTC crossing below the neckline at 42K. For more information about this pattern please visit Gareth Soloway’s Twitter or watch his video on YouTube youtube.com/watch?v=s1sZxcWSgAs&t=466s
My Bull case scenario:
For seeing another All-Time-High, we first want BTC to stay above 50 WMA and 200 Day MA, and then we need BTC to strongly break 54K. At this time, the market’s sentiment will change to Bull Market, and new ATH is expected.
If you think that there is any other point that I need to pay attention, please mention it in the comment section.
Thanks,
Ali.
Welcome to this analysis about Bitcoin.
By looking at my previous publication, you see that I consider 50 Week Moving Average as a very strong and firm support line, which I like to not to be broken, because by looking at the historical data, we can conclude that when 50 Week Moving Average (Yellow Line) is broken, BTC makes its way all the way down to 200 Week Moving Average, which is currently at $18,421 (Red Line). Of course at the time BTC reaches this support line (Next Few weeks or months), 200 Week MA will be at higher level (around 20K-21K).
There are only a few hours left to close our today’s daily candle. The current price is currently below 200 Day Moving Average, and if it closes below 200 WMA, it increases the odds for our weekly candle, which will close tomorrow, to also close below 50 Week Moving Average (below $47,700), and in this case, this week’s candlestick would be the first one, closing below 50WMA since March 2020.
As long as BTC stays above its critical Moving averages, the Bull case scenario is on the table but my suggestion is to be very careful about the situation when trading.
My Bear case scenario:
By crossing below 50 Week MA and 200 Day MA, I count 22K-17K as the bottom for below-mentioned reasons. (This bottom can be estimated more precisely when we are browsing below 25K.)
First of all, the 200 Week Moving Average is projected to be around 20K-21K by the next few months.
Secondly, we can see that after Bull Run in 2013 and 2017, BTC retraces to around 0.786 Fibonacci Level in the Bear Market. Interestingly, 0.786 Fib Level for 2021 Bull run sits at 17K.
Thirdly, by drawing the diagonal trendlines, which BTC has reacted to them, the main support line is at (18K-21K).
Fourthly, the 2017’s peak cycle is at 19.5K.
Fifthly, there is a massive Head & Shoulders pattern on the chart, which shows the target of less than 20K. this pattern can be activated by BTC crossing below the neckline at 42K. For more information about this pattern please visit Gareth Soloway’s Twitter or watch his video on YouTube youtube.com/watch?v=s1sZxcWSgAs&t=466s
My Bull case scenario:
For seeing another All-Time-High, we first want BTC to stay above 50 WMA and 200 Day MA, and then we need BTC to strongly break 54K. At this time, the market’s sentiment will change to Bull Market, and new ATH is expected.
If you think that there is any other point that I need to pay attention, please mention it in the comment section.
Thanks,
Ali.
Note
Fibonacci Level Note
Diagonal TrendlinesNote
Everything together:Trade closed: target reached
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