Bitcoin Halving & The Trump Factor: A Historical Parallel
Bitcoin's price action in 2025 is eerily reminiscent of the post-halving rally of 2017. In both cases, BTC saw a prolonged accumulation phase before a massive markup period. What's even more intriguing is how macro-political events align: Trump was elected in November 2016, just before BTC went parabolic in 2017, and once again, he's elected in November 2024, right before Bitcoin enters its explosive post-halving markup phase. Could this be more than just coincidence?
Accumulation Phase Ends – The Markup Begins
From November 9, 2024, to February 28, 2025, Bitcoin was in a 107-day accumulation phase. This mirrors previous post-halving cycles, where BTC consolidates in the Green HPR band before entering the next stage. Now, it appears we are entering the Markup Phase, where I expect Bitcoin to rally towards $120K+ in the coming months.
Applying the 2017 Cycle to 2025
The 2017 bull run followed a 59:156:360-day cycle (Accumulation → Markup → Distribution). Using the same ratio and expanding it for 2025, I’ve projected a 107:280:646-day cycle, where:
✅ 107 days Accumulation (Completed!)
📈 280 days Markup (Just Beginning!)
📉 646 days Distribution & Declining (Post-Top Phase)
This fractal projection aligns well with historical price action, reinforcing the likelihood of Bitcoin repeating this structure.
BitBo’s Rainbow Regression Chart Confirms the Setup
Looking at BitBo’s Bitcoin Rainbow Halving Price Regression Chart, BTC briefly dipped into the blue band, just like in 2017’s first wave. However, in both cases, Bitcoin quickly recovered within days and launched into its Markup phase, which is exactly what we’re seeing now!
🔹 Key Takeaway: Bitcoin is following its historic halving cycle patterns, and if history continues to rhyme, the next 280 days could be a wild ride to six-figure BTC prices! 🚀
Don't forget,
Patience is Paramount
Bitcoin's price action in 2025 is eerily reminiscent of the post-halving rally of 2017. In both cases, BTC saw a prolonged accumulation phase before a massive markup period. What's even more intriguing is how macro-political events align: Trump was elected in November 2016, just before BTC went parabolic in 2017, and once again, he's elected in November 2024, right before Bitcoin enters its explosive post-halving markup phase. Could this be more than just coincidence?
Accumulation Phase Ends – The Markup Begins
From November 9, 2024, to February 28, 2025, Bitcoin was in a 107-day accumulation phase. This mirrors previous post-halving cycles, where BTC consolidates in the Green HPR band before entering the next stage. Now, it appears we are entering the Markup Phase, where I expect Bitcoin to rally towards $120K+ in the coming months.
Applying the 2017 Cycle to 2025
The 2017 bull run followed a 59:156:360-day cycle (Accumulation → Markup → Distribution). Using the same ratio and expanding it for 2025, I’ve projected a 107:280:646-day cycle, where:
✅ 107 days Accumulation (Completed!)
📈 280 days Markup (Just Beginning!)
📉 646 days Distribution & Declining (Post-Top Phase)
This fractal projection aligns well with historical price action, reinforcing the likelihood of Bitcoin repeating this structure.
BitBo’s Rainbow Regression Chart Confirms the Setup
Looking at BitBo’s Bitcoin Rainbow Halving Price Regression Chart, BTC briefly dipped into the blue band, just like in 2017’s first wave. However, in both cases, Bitcoin quickly recovered within days and launched into its Markup phase, which is exactly what we’re seeing now!
🔹 Key Takeaway: Bitcoin is following its historic halving cycle patterns, and if history continues to rhyme, the next 280 days could be a wild ride to six-figure BTC prices! 🚀
Don't forget,
Patience is Paramount
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.