2024-09-05 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Bitcoin - Bear inside bar on the daily chart. Bears need a close below 55500 but they are in control anyhow. The bear channel is broad so both sides are making money. Best r:r trades are short near the daily ema which is currently around 59000. 53000 will very likely be hit over the next 3-10 days.
comment: Bear inside bar on the daily chart. Bears need a close below 55500 but they are in control anyhow. The bear channel is broad so both sides are making money. Best r:r trades are short near the daily ema which is currently around 59000. 53000 will very likely be hit over the next 3-10 days. (Nothing to add to the tl;dr paragraph)
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 53000 - 60000
bull case: Bulls are buying new lows and making money. They are keeping the bear channel very broad which is a sign of much two sided trading. I don’t think many bulls want to fight around 56000 which is still no mans land. We will probably see a stronger move down to 53000/54000 before more bulls will buy heavily again. If bulls somehow manage to get above 60000 again, the bear case would weaken considerably.
Invalidation is below 53000.
bear case: Bears are selling the rips but also taking quick profits or otherwise we would not have this broad channel. Since we are near the bottom again, it’s either acceleration of the selling or back up to 57000 or even 58000. I expect one side to give up until we hit either bigger resistance or support again. I favor the bears to accelerate down to 54000 and there market decides if we stay in the trading range or make new lows. No deeper patterns to be analyzed currently. Broad channel with nested wedges which all broke above so far. Don’t get bearish at the lows.
Invalidation is above 57200.
short term: Slightly bullish around 56000 to produce some sideways to up price action. Below 55000 I am wrong and the selling accelerated and short’s are the way.
medium-long term: Down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March, obviously updated the time range which was 6-9 months before. —
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Globex sold off hard and market could not get above the 1h ema again. Any short near it was good. 56000 was previous support so you should expect it to still be support and look to take profits there or exit shorts completely.
tl;dr
Bitcoin - Bear inside bar on the daily chart. Bears need a close below 55500 but they are in control anyhow. The bear channel is broad so both sides are making money. Best r:r trades are short near the daily ema which is currently around 59000. 53000 will very likely be hit over the next 3-10 days.
comment: Bear inside bar on the daily chart. Bears need a close below 55500 but they are in control anyhow. The bear channel is broad so both sides are making money. Best r:r trades are short near the daily ema which is currently around 59000. 53000 will very likely be hit over the next 3-10 days. (Nothing to add to the tl;dr paragraph)
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 53000 - 60000
bull case: Bulls are buying new lows and making money. They are keeping the bear channel very broad which is a sign of much two sided trading. I don’t think many bulls want to fight around 56000 which is still no mans land. We will probably see a stronger move down to 53000/54000 before more bulls will buy heavily again. If bulls somehow manage to get above 60000 again, the bear case would weaken considerably.
Invalidation is below 53000.
bear case: Bears are selling the rips but also taking quick profits or otherwise we would not have this broad channel. Since we are near the bottom again, it’s either acceleration of the selling or back up to 57000 or even 58000. I expect one side to give up until we hit either bigger resistance or support again. I favor the bears to accelerate down to 54000 and there market decides if we stay in the trading range or make new lows. No deeper patterns to be analyzed currently. Broad channel with nested wedges which all broke above so far. Don’t get bearish at the lows.
Invalidation is above 57200.
short term: Slightly bullish around 56000 to produce some sideways to up price action. Below 55000 I am wrong and the selling accelerated and short’s are the way.
medium-long term: Down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March, obviously updated the time range which was 6-9 months before. —
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Globex sold off hard and market could not get above the 1h ema again. Any short near it was good. 56000 was previous support so you should expect it to still be support and look to take profits there or exit shorts completely.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.