Last Great Near-Term Bitcoin Short Setup (Probably)
Updated
I say probably because Bitcoin traverses so many thousands of points in a day that it isn't out of the question to figure that a new cycle could rise and fall in 2021 after this one bottoms.
While most are thinking about discounted long entries (and the beginning of the next near-term bull cycle), I prefer to take the glorious short setup so that I do two things:
1) Ride the ~15,000 or so pts downward that will manifest should we see a clear breakdown here
2) I'm making sure that I am not entering long too soon - say I short this successfully to the target zone depicted above and then immediately flip long for first accumulation - while there may be more downside pain, at least I covered the difference on the way down and then some.
If you're still holding the bit-bag back at 63k, then it might be a good plan to hedge the rest of the downside risk with a leveraged CFD short position, or an options play with speculative puts on one of the many Bitcoin ETFs, or open a futures account and sell BTC futures contracts.
One thing about the third option mentioned - you will need over 100k in up-front margin before considering it, so best of luck with that.
Those that aren't middle-eastern oil princes, US politicians, or vested Tesla employees, I would go with the second alternative of ETN puts when the market opens. See VanEck ETN tagged below for one such option.
-FinalBitPigShort
BITBAY:BTCUSD
BITBAY:BTCUSDT
CAPITALCOM:CIX
TOTAL
ETH
OTC:GBTC
BTCUSD
SWB:DE000A28M8D0
While most are thinking about discounted long entries (and the beginning of the next near-term bull cycle), I prefer to take the glorious short setup so that I do two things:
1) Ride the ~15,000 or so pts downward that will manifest should we see a clear breakdown here
2) I'm making sure that I am not entering long too soon - say I short this successfully to the target zone depicted above and then immediately flip long for first accumulation - while there may be more downside pain, at least I covered the difference on the way down and then some.
If you're still holding the bit-bag back at 63k, then it might be a good plan to hedge the rest of the downside risk with a leveraged CFD short position, or an options play with speculative puts on one of the many Bitcoin ETFs, or open a futures account and sell BTC futures contracts.
One thing about the third option mentioned - you will need over 100k in up-front margin before considering it, so best of luck with that.
Those that aren't middle-eastern oil princes, US politicians, or vested Tesla employees, I would go with the second alternative of ETN puts when the market opens. See VanEck ETN tagged below for one such option.
-FinalBitPigShort
BITBAY:BTCUSD
BITBAY:BTCUSDT
CAPITALCOM:CIX
TOTALETHOTC:GBTC
BTCUSDSWB:DE000A28M8D0
Trade active
I took a short position about an hour ago. Did this analysis first to justify the bearish position, since a bullish reversal can never be discounted with BTC. Still, odds heavily favor a breakdown:Trade active
This is an excellent place to enter short.. just added remaining position as wellTrade active
triangle complete => big wave down incoming:Trade active
alright now full short position loaded again.. lets see some fireworks already.Trade active
still short.. just checked my CFD position for first time since last posting here and I have not gotten margin called yet. That is 1) hilarious, 2) confusing, and 3) a near-perfect confirmation that this will play out more or less as depicted above.I cannot think of a single good reason to buy bitcoin in this spot, but I can think of many bad reasons. Almost all are tied to greed, desperation, and chasing the gain-dragon after being desensitized by 100 percent gains, everyday, for a month or two straight.
That's all I gotta say on the subject, am keeping the short on until 23k/per coin, unless I somehow get weirdly called as soon as my position gets green.
Trade active
Also why I say probably.. just takes forever for the conditions to align across markets for the next drop.Should happen before the weekend though. See the latest trade setup below:
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