Bitcoin Log and Standard Scale Targets
Updated
The red ray is anchored to the same price on both charts and the only think that has changed is the scale. The top has the stock to flow model and shows historic overperformance to the trend line. It is possible that we get even more over-performance this time around as the people entering the market may lack the sophistication as traders that have been around for a couple of years.
There is some activity on the standard scale that I think is worth evaluating at a lower time frame and that is the green magnifying glass
The first thing I is a classic Elliot wave pattern and that the red ray was the approximate peak of wave 3. That makes me think that the smart money got out there and started funneling gains into assets that are undervalued relative to bitcoin. Those would be found at the weekly lower limit of the Bollinger band or showing reversal patterns on btc pairs or in reversal structures (such as will be shown in the linked ideas). That means that this peak was formed by day traders and dumb money (sorry).
The price action should to a continuation pattern with the lows falling within wave 4. If we see price action going below wave 4 it is time to waste-bin this idea. On higher time frames than the 4h it will look like price action found support on the red trend line as the A and C waves appears a wicks.
The fact that wave 3 ended at the red trendline on the standard chart makes me think that we will see wave 3 end on the log chart above and then a blow off top will create wave 5 and then the next bear market.
Speaking of dumb money (sorry again, I didn't make the terminology) the red ray has price action going out of the bitcoin log growth curves. There are different formulations of the log growth curves of course but this is one of the most used on trading view. Just as price action fell out of the log growth curve by over 50% we might see price action go above the log growth curve.
And remember, if you are just buying bitcoin in regular payments and not trading eventually the whole chart up this point will look as flat as the chart does between 2014 and 2016. Nothing to stress about.
There is some activity on the standard scale that I think is worth evaluating at a lower time frame and that is the green magnifying glass
The first thing I is a classic Elliot wave pattern and that the red ray was the approximate peak of wave 3. That makes me think that the smart money got out there and started funneling gains into assets that are undervalued relative to bitcoin. Those would be found at the weekly lower limit of the Bollinger band or showing reversal patterns on btc pairs or in reversal structures (such as will be shown in the linked ideas). That means that this peak was formed by day traders and dumb money (sorry).
The price action should to a continuation pattern with the lows falling within wave 4. If we see price action going below wave 4 it is time to waste-bin this idea. On higher time frames than the 4h it will look like price action found support on the red trend line as the A and C waves appears a wicks.
The fact that wave 3 ended at the red trendline on the standard chart makes me think that we will see wave 3 end on the log chart above and then a blow off top will create wave 5 and then the next bear market.
Speaking of dumb money (sorry again, I didn't make the terminology) the red ray has price action going out of the bitcoin log growth curves. There are different formulations of the log growth curves of course but this is one of the most used on trading view. Just as price action fell out of the log growth curve by over 50% we might see price action go above the log growth curve.
And remember, if you are just buying bitcoin in regular payments and not trading eventually the whole chart up this point will look as flat as the chart does between 2014 and 2016. Nothing to stress about.
Note
It is definitely looking like we are developing the ABC wave and after some consideration here are my rough targets for where we should be settling.
Note
The red log level is important based on recent history. If we test it as support for the C wave I suspect we won't revisit for years.
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