Bitcoin’s Support is NOT at 25,200$
Updated
In my previous Bitcoin trading idea, I expressed my view that that 25,200$ is a strong support and that Bitcoin should bounce from there. I am revising this idea with a view for lower.
The reasons I changed my mind are:
1. Bitcoin reached the proximity of this price level on June 5th and June 6th with a lackluster response. It is clear to me that the powers that be do not want higher prices ATM.
2. This whole Binance/Coinbase FUD came out at a very convenient timing. No, I am not promoting conspiracy theories. I am thinking that MMs are using this affair as an opportunity to suppress price and accumulate before the next markup phase.
3. Bitcoin’s daily and weekly RSI is too elevated to support a markup phase.
Possible Scenarios:
1. We consolidate at this price level, 26K, send a short wick down (SL hunt) and markup.
2. We slowly grind lower until next week. MMs use the volatility of the FOMC to nuke price and then, markup.
3. We nuke to the low 20K level.
Most Likely Scenario:
IMO, scenario no. 2 is the most likely.
My premise is that the Dollar has topped, inflation has topped, and interest rates topped, or they are very close to topping. I think that in the next weeks we will gradually see the crypto market waking up.
What is the “Real” Support Level?
In a previous TV idea (linked) I shared, I marked a demand zone between 23,800 – 24,600 USD. I explained my reasons There, Look it up. In short, it’s a demand zone and there is fib confluence at this range.
How will we know?
1. I am looking for PA similar to the March 12th PA. A clear rejection of lower prices and continuation to the upside (blue rectangle on the chart). Be careful, one green daily candle followed by consolidation is not a promising sign for continuation, at least IMO.
2. A break above the trendline is confirmation that we are at a markup phase. The reason is that we have a cluster of EMAs between 26,500 – 27,500 that act as resistance.
Aggressive Trade Idea:
• Entry: 24,600
• SL: 23,800
• TP: 30K, 33K and leave the rest in case we go higher.
Conservative Trade Idea:
• Entry: 27,500
• SL: below the trendline (about 27K).
• TP: 30K, 33K and leave the rest in case we go higher.
NFA
What do you think? Please share in the comments.
Best wishes to all
The reasons I changed my mind are:
1. Bitcoin reached the proximity of this price level on June 5th and June 6th with a lackluster response. It is clear to me that the powers that be do not want higher prices ATM.
2. This whole Binance/Coinbase FUD came out at a very convenient timing. No, I am not promoting conspiracy theories. I am thinking that MMs are using this affair as an opportunity to suppress price and accumulate before the next markup phase.
3. Bitcoin’s daily and weekly RSI is too elevated to support a markup phase.
Possible Scenarios:
1. We consolidate at this price level, 26K, send a short wick down (SL hunt) and markup.
2. We slowly grind lower until next week. MMs use the volatility of the FOMC to nuke price and then, markup.
3. We nuke to the low 20K level.
Most Likely Scenario:
IMO, scenario no. 2 is the most likely.
My premise is that the Dollar has topped, inflation has topped, and interest rates topped, or they are very close to topping. I think that in the next weeks we will gradually see the crypto market waking up.
What is the “Real” Support Level?
In a previous TV idea (linked) I shared, I marked a demand zone between 23,800 – 24,600 USD. I explained my reasons There, Look it up. In short, it’s a demand zone and there is fib confluence at this range.
How will we know?
1. I am looking for PA similar to the March 12th PA. A clear rejection of lower prices and continuation to the upside (blue rectangle on the chart). Be careful, one green daily candle followed by consolidation is not a promising sign for continuation, at least IMO.
2. A break above the trendline is confirmation that we are at a markup phase. The reason is that we have a cluster of EMAs between 26,500 – 27,500 that act as resistance.
Aggressive Trade Idea:
• Entry: 24,600
• SL: 23,800
• TP: 30K, 33K and leave the rest in case we go higher.
Conservative Trade Idea:
• Entry: 27,500
• SL: below the trendline (about 27K).
• TP: 30K, 33K and leave the rest in case we go higher.
NFA
What do you think? Please share in the comments.
Best wishes to all
Note
I forgot to mention. If scenario one materializes, I will either try to long from the wick or, wait for BTC to get above resistance (the conservative trade)
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