Starting with the boring range in February, BTC consolidated after making new ATHs on the day of President Trump's second term inauguration.
After a slow month of sideways action in February, we finally reached the apex of a symmetrical triangle and proceeded to dump, attempting at closing the breakaway CME gap @ ~76.5k. It quickly and violently bounced to 95k where we spent the next 51 days making new lows and ranging in the 80k region.
When we take a closer look at the fibonacci retracements of all of these moves, they are very technical.
When pulling a standard fibonacci retracement XA, we find that B falls perfectly within the golden pocket. Roughly 2 weeks later, we find ourselves at new range lows offering a very nice SFP reaction at point C which falls at the 1.272 fib expansion of AB.
In hindsight, this would have been the perfect place to get into a long position. But, unfortunately, I was looking for new lows around ~70k as this is where the 1.618 level was from a fib expansion of AB. This was during the time when tariffs were first being announced, causing major volatility across all markets. People were panic selling and calling for an economic crisis because of Donald Trump's tweets causing erratic behavior in markets.
We rally for the next 36 days offering no significant pullbacks to be able to get in on a long as it always seemed that we could get in on weakness as the rally produced a lot of SPs.
Now the BC expansion shows that we are nearing the end of this rally if this shark harmonic is to play out.
Waiting on confirmation of point D, but it is very possible that the high is in, and we start fulfilling this shark harmonic.
This would fall perfectly in line with the old adage "Sell in May and go away." or at least, first signs of weakness in May, and don't get chopped up.
There has also been a couple of potential events that could be classified as "black swan" that would affect the markets negatively like Coinbase announcing a user data leak, and Moody's downgrading of U.S debt.
Overall, we could see this shark harmonic be part of a HTF trend, coiling up before the next big move that breaks out near the end of summertime.
Always important to remember to practice proper risk management and that no trade is still a trade.
After a slow month of sideways action in February, we finally reached the apex of a symmetrical triangle and proceeded to dump, attempting at closing the breakaway CME gap @ ~76.5k. It quickly and violently bounced to 95k where we spent the next 51 days making new lows and ranging in the 80k region.
When we take a closer look at the fibonacci retracements of all of these moves, they are very technical.
When pulling a standard fibonacci retracement XA, we find that B falls perfectly within the golden pocket. Roughly 2 weeks later, we find ourselves at new range lows offering a very nice SFP reaction at point C which falls at the 1.272 fib expansion of AB.
In hindsight, this would have been the perfect place to get into a long position. But, unfortunately, I was looking for new lows around ~70k as this is where the 1.618 level was from a fib expansion of AB. This was during the time when tariffs were first being announced, causing major volatility across all markets. People were panic selling and calling for an economic crisis because of Donald Trump's tweets causing erratic behavior in markets.
We rally for the next 36 days offering no significant pullbacks to be able to get in on a long as it always seemed that we could get in on weakness as the rally produced a lot of SPs.
Now the BC expansion shows that we are nearing the end of this rally if this shark harmonic is to play out.
Waiting on confirmation of point D, but it is very possible that the high is in, and we start fulfilling this shark harmonic.
This would fall perfectly in line with the old adage "Sell in May and go away." or at least, first signs of weakness in May, and don't get chopped up.
There has also been a couple of potential events that could be classified as "black swan" that would affect the markets negatively like Coinbase announcing a user data leak, and Moody's downgrading of U.S debt.
Overall, we could see this shark harmonic be part of a HTF trend, coiling up before the next big move that breaks out near the end of summertime.
Always important to remember to practice proper risk management and that no trade is still a trade.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.