BTCUSD Swing Short | Fading Supply Spike- 4H Liquidity Breakdown

BTC retraced into the 4H liquidity breakdown zone at 96,111.6. Bulls failed to absorb supply here, confirming structural weakness. Price spiked into this zone but rejected, setting up a swing short opportunity. This rejection lacked conviction, driven by late longs chasing into thin liquidity. The setup isn’t about momentum—it’s about exploiting the structural fragility where stretched positions collapse.

"Entry Price: 95,300.0 – Fading the Supply Spike (Limit Order Pre-Loaded)"
"SL: 96,150.0 – Supply Absorption Invalidation (8,500 Ticks Risk @ 0.01 Tick Size)"
"TP: 92,000.0 – Structure Rebuild Zone (33,000 Ticks Reward @ 0.01 Tick Size)"
"RRR: 3.88R Skewed Outcome (Pre-Fee)"
"Net RRR After Fees: 3.56R"

Expected stop loss is 850.0 USD range on price, translating to 1.70 USDT risk on my 0.002 BTC size. Expected take profit is 3,300.0 USD range on price, yielding 6.60 USDT reward. Total fees estimated at 0.07492 USDT if TP hits, 0.13427 USDT if SL hits. Net reward after fees is 6.52508 USDT, net loss after fees is 1.83427 USDT, yielding a final net reward-to-risk ratio of 3.56R.

Contextual layers:

"Liquidity Breakdown: 96,111.6 – Bulls Failed to Absorb Supply, Breakdown Confirmed"
"POC: 94,500.0 – Microstructure Breakdown Trigger"
"Bull/Bear Inflection: 91,911.8 – Critical for Macro Sentiment"
"London Open: 91,828.5 – Support Impulse Level"

Conviction weighting:

ADX rising above 22 confirms trend strength weakening into resistance. RSI divergence highlights momentum exhaustion with price making higher highs, but RSI printing lower highs. Open interest rising into supply suggests late long positioning, primed for failure as structure collapses.

This is a structural exploitation setup. Monitoring price behavior for confirmation or invalidation as liquidity thins.

Trade active

Raw Data Supplied:
Position Size: 0.002 BTC
Entry Price: 95,300.0
Take Profit: 92,000.0
Stop Loss: 96,150.0
Leverage: 100x

Order Types:
Entry: Limit (0.02% maker fee)
TP: Limit (0.02% maker fee)
SL: Market (0.05% taker fee)

Final Fee Breakdown (Based on Your Data):
Entry Fee (Limit):
95,300×0.002×0.0002=0.03812USDT

TP Fee (Limit):
92,000×0.002×0.0002=0.0368 USDT

SL Fee (Market):
96,150×0.002×0.0005=0.09615USDT

Expected Outcomes:
Expected Reward (TP hit):
(95,300−92,000)×0.002=6.60USDT

Net reward after fees:
6.60−(0.03812+0.0368)=6.52508USDT

Expected Loss (SL hit):
(96,150−95,300)×0.002=1.70USDT

Net loss after fees:
1.70+(0.03812+0.09615)=1.83427USDT

Net Reward-to-Risk (after fees):
6.52508÷1.83427=3.56𝑅

Note

Trade entry was executed at 95,300.0 around 02:38 UTC on April 26, 2025. This update comes slightly delayed as the trade was placed outside of my regular trading hours, while I was offline and asleep. Live updates weren’t possible during that period. Once active, I prioritize providing structured updates aligned with my execution framework.

This setup remains positioned to exploit low volatility drift conditions, where thin liquidity can still allow for directional cascading, either toward the take profit or stop loss. The expectation remains that structural fragility favors downside continuation, but I acknowledge the potential for reversals in this environment.

Note

The active short from 95,300.0 remains fully engaged, aligned with the 4H liquidity breakdown thesis, targeting broader downside expansion. This position will play out in full as per the original trade design, independent of lower timeframe fluctuations.

However, emerging microstructure shifts—evidenced by reclaiming the Point of Control (94,500.0)—highlight a potential short-term structural reversal.

Primary Position: Swing short thesis remains intact, allowing full downside potential to unfold.

Secondary Opportunity: Scouting LTF long reversion setups for countertrend engagement, contingent on continued supply failure and structural stabilization above reclaimed pivots.

This approach exemplifies multi-timeframe bias management:

Primary bias (HTF) remains bearish, unchanged.

Secondary bias (LTF) shifts toward opportunistic longs, with conditions monitored in real-time.

Demonstrating conviction in core theses, while maintaining agility to capitalize on evolving microstructure.

Note

I see the move from 91,984 to 95,337 as a high-volume impulse leg on Fri 25/4 printing ~12 M ticks (~20 % above the 20-period VWMA)

It only retraced to 92,941 on Sat 26/4 (38 % fib) before bouncing into the 75–100 % fib zone on Mon 28/4

Volume tapered from ~12 M ticks on Fri 25/4 to ~7 M ticks on Mon 28/4 against a down-sloping VWMA, indicating diminishing buying pressure

My 14-period RSI made a lower high, falling from ~70 at the Sat 26/4 peak to ~61 at the Mon 28/4 peak, flagging bearish divergence

Price probed the 4 H liquidity breakdown zone (96,111–96,150) on Wed 23/4 16:00 UTC and Thu 24/4 04:00 UTC while

OI fell ~3 % and funding sat slightly negative, implying failed supply absorption

On the retest of the 94,500 pivot price printed a bearish rejection wick and failed to reclaim 95,000–95,300 with conviction, confirming a microstructure breakdown

I’m in a live short and will only exit early if price closes above 95,500 on expanding volume (+15 % VWMA) with rising OI (>5 %) or if funding turns sharply positive (>+0.05 %)

Note

April 29, 2025 – Journal Entry

Today I’m piecing together the on-chain spot data and price structure to map Bitcoin’s likely path ahead.

On-Chain Setup:
• Exchange Reserve: Dropped from 2.75 M BTC (Mar 15) to 2.25 M BTC (Apr 28), then flattened. That tells me off-exchange accumulation dried up—no fresh “dry powder.”
• NRPL: Swung from –$2.1 B (Apr 14) to +$3.0 B (Apr 25) then pulled back to ~0. Profit-taking peaked; traders are cooling off.
• SOPR: Hit 1.15 (Apr 20) → 1.02 (Apr 28). Net profitable spends are dwindling; conviction to sell at profit is fading. A drop below 1.0 would shift bias bearish.
• Whale Outflows: A one-day spike of ~12 k BTC at $95 k (Apr 27), then subsided—large-holder distribution likely complete.

Insight: Liquidity that drove the rally has been absorbed. Spot flows are now in equilibrium—prime setup for either a tight squeeze or a range soak. Also, the partially filled Fair Value Gap (FVG) around 91.8k–92.2k sits just below the 93k floor, providing a logical target and confluence zone for bearish extensions if the range breaks down.

Fib-Anchored Price Structure:
• Swing-High: 95 520 (last green candle wick).
• Swing-Low : 93 000 (last red candle wick).
• Tight Coil: Price chopping between ~94 000–95 000 with repeated FTRs at 94 890–95 397 failing. Bulls lack follow-through; each bull push is met by sellers.

Bull Case: This narrowing, higher coil is a classic continuation structure. A candle close above 95 397 would likely kick off a rapid run toward 96 000–100 000.

Broader Range Fill Scenario:
• 25 % Fib (93 630) has been wicked twice but never a close below AND reclaim above—so the 93 000→95 520 range remains unvalidated.
• I expect price to keep oscillating in this larger band until it legitimately tags 93 630 and reverses back above, soaking up supply before a macro breakout.

Risk/Reward & Triggers:
• Bear Edge: Short 94 800–95 000, stop above 95 520, target 93 630 → 93 000 → extend toward 92 000 (FVG confluence).
• Bull Edge: Candle close > 95 397 triggers 96 000 → 100 000.
• Range-Validation: Close < 93 630 then reclaim > 93 630 seals the 93–96 k range and sets up a stronger springboard.

Bottom-Line “Case” “Case”: I’m watching two scenarios in parallel: a tight, higher coil crush through supply for a swift bull continuation, or a broader 93 k–96 k range fill that paradoxically builds a firmer macro base. In both, sellers are drained, so once BTC decisively clears 95.4 k, the runway to 100 k+ is clear.

Kyle_Booth

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Kyle_Booth