BTC Breakdown Confirmed Below 93.3K: Distribution or Correction?
After failing to reach the projected 96.5K supply zone, BTCUSDT topped at 94.9K with a high-volume rejection and has since broken decisively below 93.3K โ a critical VWAP support zone. This move validates the bearish continuation scenario and shifts the strategic focus from pullback-reload to downside targets and flow-based invalidation.
Key Developments Since the Previous Report:
๐ป Top Confirmed at 94.9K on April 23 at 13:38 UTC
๐ฝ Delta at top: -266, aggressive selling
๐ฝ OI peaked and started to stall
โ Failed to build continuation to 96.5K
๐ป โSupportโ at 93.3K broken overnight (new low: 92.238 USDT)
This eliminates the reload-long scenario and strengthens the short continuation thesis.
Current Market Structure:
BTC is now trading below VWAP and the previous high-volume breakout zone. The current structure resembles a distribution phase, not a simple pullback:
๐ป Price below VWAP daily/weekly
๐ฝ OI flat to slightly declining
โ Buy delta faded post-top, sellers back in control
Tactical Outlook:
With confirmation below 93.3K, the next key zone of interest is:
๐น 91.800 USDT โ Previous accumulation + POC zone
If price stabilizes there with renewed buy delta + OI uptick, we can reassess for recovery. But for now, momentum favors sellers.
Recommended Tactical Entry:
Short Setup (Continuation):
๐น Sell limit at 93.100โ93.300 (retest of broken support)
๐น Stop Loss: 93.850 (above VWAP and breakout candle)
๐น TP1: 91.800 (POC zone)
๐น TP2: 90.200 (gap support below)
โ๏ธ R/R: 1:2.5 to 1:3
Entry Conditions:
Delta remains negative during retest
OI does not rise (no renewed long positioning)
Volume spike with no follow-through (inefficient move)
Invalidation:
If price reclaims 93.850 with increasing OI and buyer aggression, short thesis is invalidated.
Alternative: enter aggressively after bearish rejection candle on 5โ15min timeframe.
Playbook:
Short bias active unless:
Price reclaims 93.8K with conviction (delta + OI surge)
Daily closes back above VWAP
Until then:
โ Maintain shorts
โ Avoid premature longs
โก Watch for volume spikes without delta = liquidity traps
Conclusion:
The failure at 94.9K combined with the clean break of 93.3K marks a transition from bullish continuation to controlled unwind. The market is now in distribution territory, and caution is warranted.
Watch 91.8K closely.
Author: Pรดncio Pacรญfico
Ex-institutional trader, banned from CEXs.
"Volume doesn't lie. Traders do."
Follow for the next tactical flow shift.
Key Developments Since the Previous Report:
๐ป Top Confirmed at 94.9K on April 23 at 13:38 UTC
๐ฝ Delta at top: -266, aggressive selling
๐ฝ OI peaked and started to stall
โ Failed to build continuation to 96.5K
๐ป โSupportโ at 93.3K broken overnight (new low: 92.238 USDT)
This eliminates the reload-long scenario and strengthens the short continuation thesis.
Current Market Structure:
BTC is now trading below VWAP and the previous high-volume breakout zone. The current structure resembles a distribution phase, not a simple pullback:
๐ป Price below VWAP daily/weekly
๐ฝ OI flat to slightly declining
โ Buy delta faded post-top, sellers back in control
Tactical Outlook:
With confirmation below 93.3K, the next key zone of interest is:
๐น 91.800 USDT โ Previous accumulation + POC zone
If price stabilizes there with renewed buy delta + OI uptick, we can reassess for recovery. But for now, momentum favors sellers.
Recommended Tactical Entry:
Short Setup (Continuation):
๐น Sell limit at 93.100โ93.300 (retest of broken support)
๐น Stop Loss: 93.850 (above VWAP and breakout candle)
๐น TP1: 91.800 (POC zone)
๐น TP2: 90.200 (gap support below)
โ๏ธ R/R: 1:2.5 to 1:3
Entry Conditions:
Delta remains negative during retest
OI does not rise (no renewed long positioning)
Volume spike with no follow-through (inefficient move)
Invalidation:
If price reclaims 93.850 with increasing OI and buyer aggression, short thesis is invalidated.
Alternative: enter aggressively after bearish rejection candle on 5โ15min timeframe.
Playbook:
Short bias active unless:
Price reclaims 93.8K with conviction (delta + OI surge)
Daily closes back above VWAP
Until then:
โ Maintain shorts
โ Avoid premature longs
โก Watch for volume spikes without delta = liquidity traps
Conclusion:
The failure at 94.9K combined with the clean break of 93.3K marks a transition from bullish continuation to controlled unwind. The market is now in distribution territory, and caution is warranted.
Watch 91.8K closely.
Author: Pรดncio Pacรญfico
Ex-institutional trader, banned from CEXs.
"Volume doesn't lie. Traders do."
Follow for the next tactical flow shift.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.