BTCUSDT Perpetual Contract
Short
Updated

BTC - Is there anything that can stop this bullrun?

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The current 4H structure presents a high-probability scenario centered around a classic liquidity sweep into premium levels, followed by potential downside rebalancing into inefficiencies. This is a clear case of price reaching for external liquidity before internal structure takes over.

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1. Liquidity Run Above BSLs

Price has aggressively pushed upward, sweeping multiple Buy Side Liquidity (BSL) levels. These levels mark resting stop orders and breakout entries positioned by retail above recent swing highs.

- The impulsive move to the upside isn't a sign of strength—it's a strategic run for liquidity.
- These liquidity pools provide exit opportunities for large players offloading long positions initiated earlier in the structure.
- The sweep aligns with typical behavior just before price reacts to higher timeframe supply or premium Fibonacci zones.

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2. Golden Pocket Confluence Zone (Downtrend Bias)

The orange highlighted zone represents the Golden Pocket—the 61.8%-to-65% retracement zone often associated with downtrend continuation or reversal setups.

- This level acts as a magnet in trending conditions, often leading to strong rejections.
- As price enters this pocket, the probability of a reaction increases, especially following a liquidity grab.
- The structure suggests this move is designed not for continuation, but for setting up a reversal.

The projected swing failure pattern at this level implies a shift from bullish euphoria to short-term distribution.

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3. Internal Structure: Fair Value Gaps as Rebalance Zones

Two Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) are marked as zones of inefficiency, where price moved too aggressively to maintain balance between buyers and sellers.

- FVGs represent internal liquidity voids and serve as high-probability magnets for retracement.
- The first FVG lies just below the current price, suggesting a short-term retracement target.
- The second, deeper FVG offers a more substantial downside target and is aligned with typical rebalancing behavior after aggressive markups.

As price begins to break structure to the downside, these gaps become the logical destinations.

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4. Probable Flow: Liquidity Sweep → Rejection → Internal FVG Fill

The anticipated flow is strategic and sequential:

- Step 1: Sweep of BSL and deviation into the Golden Pocket
- Step 2: Quick rejection, potentially forming a lower high
- Step 3: Downside expansion targeting both FVGs for liquidity rebalancing

This is not about chasing price—it’s about understanding the intent behind the move: create imbalance, sweep liquidity, then deliver price into inefficiency.

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Conclusion:

This 4H chart outlines a mechanically driven move:
- External liquidity (BSL) tapped
- Premium level tested (Golden Pocket)
- Internal inefficiencies below acting as draw

The structure points to a transitional phase from premium to discount, with the FVGs below acting as clear objectives. Until those inefficiencies are fully addressed, the upside narrative remains reactive, not impulsive.
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FVG hit, bounce off to BSL?

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