As of April 2nd, 2025, Bitcoin finds itself at a pivotal technical crossroads, with price action consolidating within a well-defined range as markets prepare for Trump's upcoming tariff policy speech. The cryptocurrency has experienced significant volatility in recent weeks, with a sharp decline from the $98,000 level followed by a consolidation phase.
Technical Structure and Price Action
The daily chart reveals Bitcoin trading in a rectangular consolidation pattern between approximately $79,800 and $88,800. This range-bound price action follows a substantial corrective move from recent highs, with the market now seeking direction. Current price hovers around $84,890, sitting below the mid-point of this established range.
The blue box on the chart highlights this recent consolidation zone, where price has been oscillating for several trading sessions. This pattern typically represents a pause in the market as buyers and sellers reach temporary equilibrium before the next directional move.
Volume Analysis Provides Crucial Insights
Looking at the Relative Volume Indicator (RVOL) at the bottom of the chart, we can observe several noteworthy volume patterns:
-Several green bars exceeding the 2.0x threshold indicate periods of significantly above-average volume during the decline and subsequent consolidation
-More recent trading sessions show predominantly yellow and red bars, suggesting a return to average and below-average volume as the market consolidates
-The most recent green volume spike coincides with a bullish candle, potentially indicating renewed buying interest
This volume profile suggests that while the initial selloff occurred on strong volume (confirming the downtrend's validity), the recent consolidation is happening on decreasing volume – often a precursor to a significant move.
Critical Levels to Watch
With Trump's tariff announcement looming, traders should monitor these key levels:
Support: $79,800 (lower range boundary)
Intermediate resistance: $88,800 (higher range high)
Intermediate support: $82,000 (recent swing low)
What Could Happen Next?
The cryptocurrency market's reaction will likely hinge on the tone and specifics of Trump's tariff policies:
Bullish Scenario
If Trump's tariff policies are perceived as positive for risk assets or specifically favorable for cryptocurrency:
A break above $90,000 could trigger a relief rally toward previous highs
The declining volume during consolidation could represent a coiling effect before an explosive move higher
Target zones would be $95,000 and potentially a retest of the $98,000 area
Bearish Scenario
If the announcement creates market uncertainty or suggests policies that might negatively impact risk assets:
A breakdown below $79,800 would confirm continuation of the larger downtrend
Volume would likely expand on a breakdown, providing confirmation
The next major support zones would become $75,000 and $70,000
Conclusion
Bitcoin stands at a technical inflection point, with the upcoming tariff announcement serving as a potential catalyst for its next major move. The consolidation pattern, coupled with the volume profile shown in the RVOL indicator, suggests traders should prepare for increased volatility.
Given the mixed signals – bearish price structure but consolidation with occasional above-average volume spikes – a measured approach is prudent. Traders would be wise to wait for a definitive break of either range boundary with confirming volume before establishing significant positions.
The next 24-48 hours could determine whether Bitcoin resumes its longer-term uptrend or continues the correction that began from the $98,000 level.
Technical Structure and Price Action
The daily chart reveals Bitcoin trading in a rectangular consolidation pattern between approximately $79,800 and $88,800. This range-bound price action follows a substantial corrective move from recent highs, with the market now seeking direction. Current price hovers around $84,890, sitting below the mid-point of this established range.
The blue box on the chart highlights this recent consolidation zone, where price has been oscillating for several trading sessions. This pattern typically represents a pause in the market as buyers and sellers reach temporary equilibrium before the next directional move.
Volume Analysis Provides Crucial Insights
Looking at the Relative Volume Indicator (RVOL) at the bottom of the chart, we can observe several noteworthy volume patterns:
-Several green bars exceeding the 2.0x threshold indicate periods of significantly above-average volume during the decline and subsequent consolidation
-More recent trading sessions show predominantly yellow and red bars, suggesting a return to average and below-average volume as the market consolidates
-The most recent green volume spike coincides with a bullish candle, potentially indicating renewed buying interest
This volume profile suggests that while the initial selloff occurred on strong volume (confirming the downtrend's validity), the recent consolidation is happening on decreasing volume – often a precursor to a significant move.
Critical Levels to Watch
With Trump's tariff announcement looming, traders should monitor these key levels:
Support: $79,800 (lower range boundary)
Intermediate resistance: $88,800 (higher range high)
Intermediate support: $82,000 (recent swing low)
What Could Happen Next?
The cryptocurrency market's reaction will likely hinge on the tone and specifics of Trump's tariff policies:
Bullish Scenario
If Trump's tariff policies are perceived as positive for risk assets or specifically favorable for cryptocurrency:
A break above $90,000 could trigger a relief rally toward previous highs
The declining volume during consolidation could represent a coiling effect before an explosive move higher
Target zones would be $95,000 and potentially a retest of the $98,000 area
Bearish Scenario
If the announcement creates market uncertainty or suggests policies that might negatively impact risk assets:
A breakdown below $79,800 would confirm continuation of the larger downtrend
Volume would likely expand on a breakdown, providing confirmation
The next major support zones would become $75,000 and $70,000
Conclusion
Bitcoin stands at a technical inflection point, with the upcoming tariff announcement serving as a potential catalyst for its next major move. The consolidation pattern, coupled with the volume profile shown in the RVOL indicator, suggests traders should prepare for increased volatility.
Given the mixed signals – bearish price structure but consolidation with occasional above-average volume spikes – a measured approach is prudent. Traders would be wise to wait for a definitive break of either range boundary with confirming volume before establishing significant positions.
The next 24-48 hours could determine whether Bitcoin resumes its longer-term uptrend or continues the correction that began from the $98,000 level.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.