After looking at 1D Chart analysis, here's my 2 cent on 4H chart. Currently market structure seem to be in a bearish cycle to sideway cycle (will explain why sideway shortly). From point A to B is a downtrend zone. Did we get out of that trend yet? I would say not at the moment. Point C created a lower low position however the candle didn't break previous low (point B) hence it cannot be consider as break of structure.
Right after that we moved up to a higher high (point D) but not a higher high that break point E (strong high position). But it did make an internal CHoCH. Back to the earlier sideway cycle, if you look at point D and point C both is still inside point E and point B zone of strong high and low position. To me this is internal ranging until a structure has to break either point E or point B.
What would happen from now? I have pinpoint point F as lower high as we seem to be moving downward for retracement. But how far down for retracement yet to be determined by the market movement. Here's the scenario of what could happen next:
A) Bitcoin will retrace back to this zone around 28236 to 28552 (fib golden zone) and then back to upwards trend. However this upward trend has to break all point D, point E and point F to be consider as bull movement. Otherwise if will still be consider ranging in between point E and point B.
B) Bitcoin will retrace back to this zone around 26620 (last strong support) which break point B, point C and point G. If price close below point B then it will be consider as break of structure and continuous of bear cycle/downtrend. If price fail to close below point B, it would still be consider ranging as above scenario.
It's going to be a wild ride, when price make a strong move to either side. However refer back to 1D Chart to look at bigger picture.
Right after that we moved up to a higher high (point D) but not a higher high that break point E (strong high position). But it did make an internal CHoCH. Back to the earlier sideway cycle, if you look at point D and point C both is still inside point E and point B zone of strong high and low position. To me this is internal ranging until a structure has to break either point E or point B.
What would happen from now? I have pinpoint point F as lower high as we seem to be moving downward for retracement. But how far down for retracement yet to be determined by the market movement. Here's the scenario of what could happen next:
A) Bitcoin will retrace back to this zone around 28236 to 28552 (fib golden zone) and then back to upwards trend. However this upward trend has to break all point D, point E and point F to be consider as bull movement. Otherwise if will still be consider ranging in between point E and point B.
B) Bitcoin will retrace back to this zone around 26620 (last strong support) which break point B, point C and point G. If price close below point B then it will be consider as break of structure and continuous of bear cycle/downtrend. If price fail to close below point B, it would still be consider ranging as above scenario.
It's going to be a wild ride, when price make a strong move to either side. However refer back to 1D Chart to look at bigger picture.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.