Bitcoin Analysis: Macro Tailwinds + Tape Reading = The Perfect B
🌍 Bitcoin Analysis: Macro Tailwinds + Tape Reading = The Perfect Bulltrap (or a Historic Breakout)
Published by: Pôncio Pacífico — The Portuguese God of Derivatives
⚡ Macro Context: Global Instability Is Pushing Bitcoin Up (For Now)
In the last 48 hours, Bitcoin has surged nearly 3%, hitting $87,500. This happened while:
The U.S. dollar weakened amid political instability (Trump challenging the Fed's authority)
Gold hit a new all-time high above $3,370/oz
Global equity markets corrected and bond yields declined
🔎 Sources: Bloomberg & Reuters
Bitcoin is behaving like a risk-off asset. Bullish at first glance, but the tape tells a more sinister story...
🕵️ On-Chain & Order Flow Analysis (last 5 days)
Delta: Negative delta candles with price still rising → classic short squeeze behavior
Open Interest: Increased during the pump, then flattened → sign of trapped FOMO longs
Volume: Strong at the beginning of the move, now fading while price still climbs → exhaustion?
Conclusion: we’re seeing short liquidations + late long entries = DANGER ZONE.
📊 Institutional Trading Scenarios (Macro + Tape Reading)
🚑 SCENARIO A: Bulltrap in Progress (most likely)
Short entry: $87,850–$88,000
Stop loss: $88,200
Target 1: $87,100
Target 2: $86,200
Trigger: Weak volume + flat delta + rising OI (FOMO)
🌪 SCENARIO B: Controlled Pullback, Institutional Re-entry
Long entry: $86,300
Stop: $85,800
Target 1: $87,500
Target 2: $88,800
Trigger: Volume spike + positive delta + stable OI
⚡ SCENARIO C: Authentic Breakout
Entry: $88,100
Stop: $87,600
Target: $89,800–90,000
Trigger: Aggressive delta + visible liquidations + strong volume breakout
💭 Final Pôncio Proclamation
"Macro says buy. Tape says wait. Combine both and you realize: whoever buys now without a plan... is paying for the market makers' champagne brunch."
Share this if you don’t want your gym buddy to long the top again.
#BTC #Futures #TapeReading #CryptoAnalysis #MacroTrading #InstitutionalTools #VolumeProfile #OpenInterest #ShortSqueeze
Published by: Pôncio Pacífico — The Portuguese God of Derivatives
⚡ Macro Context: Global Instability Is Pushing Bitcoin Up (For Now)
In the last 48 hours, Bitcoin has surged nearly 3%, hitting $87,500. This happened while:
The U.S. dollar weakened amid political instability (Trump challenging the Fed's authority)
Gold hit a new all-time high above $3,370/oz
Global equity markets corrected and bond yields declined
🔎 Sources: Bloomberg & Reuters
Bitcoin is behaving like a risk-off asset. Bullish at first glance, but the tape tells a more sinister story...
🕵️ On-Chain & Order Flow Analysis (last 5 days)
Delta: Negative delta candles with price still rising → classic short squeeze behavior
Open Interest: Increased during the pump, then flattened → sign of trapped FOMO longs
Volume: Strong at the beginning of the move, now fading while price still climbs → exhaustion?
Conclusion: we’re seeing short liquidations + late long entries = DANGER ZONE.
📊 Institutional Trading Scenarios (Macro + Tape Reading)
🚑 SCENARIO A: Bulltrap in Progress (most likely)
Short entry: $87,850–$88,000
Stop loss: $88,200
Target 1: $87,100
Target 2: $86,200
Trigger: Weak volume + flat delta + rising OI (FOMO)
🌪 SCENARIO B: Controlled Pullback, Institutional Re-entry
Long entry: $86,300
Stop: $85,800
Target 1: $87,500
Target 2: $88,800
Trigger: Volume spike + positive delta + stable OI
⚡ SCENARIO C: Authentic Breakout
Entry: $88,100
Stop: $87,600
Target: $89,800–90,000
Trigger: Aggressive delta + visible liquidations + strong volume breakout
💭 Final Pôncio Proclamation
"Macro says buy. Tape says wait. Combine both and you realize: whoever buys now without a plan... is paying for the market makers' champagne brunch."
Share this if you don’t want your gym buddy to long the top again.
#BTC #Futures #TapeReading #CryptoAnalysis #MacroTrading #InstitutionalTools #VolumeProfile #OpenInterest #ShortSqueeze
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.