Understanding Trump
As investors, we constantly analyze news and charts to find opportunities to make money. But today, I want to take a step back and look at the bigger picture.
This is a story about Donald Trump. Predicting his future actions could be key to making profits in various markets. Lately, Trump may seem like a madman—Hunting down on illegal immigrants, imposing tariffs on countries, trying to befriend Russia, and being outright rude to other alliences. He even once demanded that Greenland be put up for sale.
Over the next few chapters, I’ll explain my idea about why Trump does what he does. You will realize he’s not as crazy as he seems. Hopefully, this will help us gain some foresight into the future and, in turn, make profitable investments.
Chapter 1 : The U.S. A Frog in a Boiling Pot
From Trump’s perspective, America today is like a frog sitting in a pot of water that’s about to boil. Not just lukewarm, but dangerously close to reaching a boiling point. Like a setting sun, the U.S. is slowly losing its position as the world's dominant superpower and is, in his eyes, on the verge of decline.
What we are feeling about US is more like this.
On the surface, it looks like things are going well.
Ordinary Americans seem to be doing fine, the stock market keeps hitting new highs, employment numbers are strong, and the U.S. military remains the most powerful in the world. There are no obvious signs that America is losing its status as the world’s leading power.
But Trump sees things differently.
In his view, if the U.S. continues on its current path, it will eventually lose its dominance to China and decline into a second-tier nation, much like Britain or Spain.
Why does he think that?
This perspective is likely influenced by books like Ray Dalio’s The Changing World Order and Paul Kennedy’s The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers.
These books analyze how once-great powers—such as Britain, the Roman Empire, and Spain—declined over time. They outline three key reasons why major powers historically collapse:
1 Excessive debt – Poor government management and uncontrolled money printing lead to inflation.
2 Overextension through war or expansion – Excessive military spending due to prolonged wars or imperial overreach.
3 Extreme wealth inequality and social conflict – Rising tensions and divisions among the population.
And I would add one more factor to this list.
4 Failure to adapt to new economic, social, and technological trends -
Trump believes that these factors are causing the U.S. to lose its status as the world's leading power.
In a few decades, he sees America becoming like Britain—reminiscing about its past glory—or like Russia—resource-rich but lacking real global influence.
So, will the U.S. really decline?
"The water in the pot is already getting hot. No one knows exactly when it will start boiling, but if these four factors continue fueling the fire, eventually, it will."
As investors, we constantly analyze news and charts to find opportunities to make money. But today, I want to take a step back and look at the bigger picture.
This is a story about Donald Trump. Predicting his future actions could be key to making profits in various markets. Lately, Trump may seem like a madman—Hunting down on illegal immigrants, imposing tariffs on countries, trying to befriend Russia, and being outright rude to other alliences. He even once demanded that Greenland be put up for sale.
Over the next few chapters, I’ll explain my idea about why Trump does what he does. You will realize he’s not as crazy as he seems. Hopefully, this will help us gain some foresight into the future and, in turn, make profitable investments.
Chapter 1 : The U.S. A Frog in a Boiling Pot
From Trump’s perspective, America today is like a frog sitting in a pot of water that’s about to boil. Not just lukewarm, but dangerously close to reaching a boiling point. Like a setting sun, the U.S. is slowly losing its position as the world's dominant superpower and is, in his eyes, on the verge of decline.
What we are feeling about US is more like this.
On the surface, it looks like things are going well.
Ordinary Americans seem to be doing fine, the stock market keeps hitting new highs, employment numbers are strong, and the U.S. military remains the most powerful in the world. There are no obvious signs that America is losing its status as the world’s leading power.
But Trump sees things differently.
In his view, if the U.S. continues on its current path, it will eventually lose its dominance to China and decline into a second-tier nation, much like Britain or Spain.
Why does he think that?
This perspective is likely influenced by books like Ray Dalio’s The Changing World Order and Paul Kennedy’s The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers.
These books analyze how once-great powers—such as Britain, the Roman Empire, and Spain—declined over time. They outline three key reasons why major powers historically collapse:
1 Excessive debt – Poor government management and uncontrolled money printing lead to inflation.
2 Overextension through war or expansion – Excessive military spending due to prolonged wars or imperial overreach.
3 Extreme wealth inequality and social conflict – Rising tensions and divisions among the population.
And I would add one more factor to this list.
4 Failure to adapt to new economic, social, and technological trends -
Trump believes that these factors are causing the U.S. to lose its status as the world's leading power.
In a few decades, he sees America becoming like Britain—reminiscing about its past glory—or like Russia—resource-rich but lacking real global influence.
So, will the U.S. really decline?
"The water in the pot is already getting hot. No one knows exactly when it will start boiling, but if these four factors continue fueling the fire, eventually, it will."
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.